The models are starting to make more sense with this storm and it looks as if everything is starting to shape up for at least a moderate snowfall across most of Central New York Sunday and Monday. Of course the major question is: Snow day Monday? It is still too early to tell and there is a lot of questions that remain to be answered, but I will admit there is at least a chance!
Now, onto the meteorology of this. A storm is forming south of California over the Pacific Ocean. This storm will move into the Souther Plains and then up into the Great Lakes. This is the first part of the storm. A cold front will have brought in very cold air on Saturday. This cold air will be trapped, meaning everything that falls should be some form of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet or freezing rain.) A good 3-6" of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet from this part of the storm.
The storm center will then reform off the East Coast. There is some uncertainty as to where, with the models pointing to a reformation further north than perhaps makes sense. They are, however, tending to come further south recently. This means more cold air will be brought in, making a change over to rain unlikely. This will also likely get rid of any sleet and freezing rain, making it all snow. How much more snow we pick up from this part of the storm is still up in the air depending on where the storm reforms, its track, and how fast it moves.
I am experimenting with a snow map, so look for that later this evening or tomorrow!
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