Into the Moderate Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has moved our area into a "moderate risk" zone. This is their 3rd of 4 severe weather categories...and the 4th and final one is rarely issued anywhere, and I cannot say that I have seen it used up here. I would say we see a moderate risk every other year or so. Sometimes we get in a pattern where we get a couple in a short time span, but then there are occasions when we don't get any in a whole year. So, in conclusion of all that...when the SPC puts out the moderate for our area, its time for me to really look at things.

So what is going on that has prompted this? A strong area of low pressure with strong winds aloft will be moving eastward towards us overnight tonight. This system has produced plenty of severe weather already. Currently, there is a line of thunderstorms stretching from Michigan down into Indiana, then stretching back into Illinois and Iowa as the low moves across Wisconsin. These storms will not effect us. The part of the line moving across Michigan will turn southeast and die out. However, in its wake, new storms will develop later this afternoon and form into another cluster. This cluster will move eastward into Western New York later this evening and into the first part of the night and then towards our area after midnight. As it crosses Michigan, southern Ontario and into western New York, it will be producing widespread damaging winds...and it is for that reason that the moderate risk has been posted.

The question for us, on the far eastern edge of the moderate risk, is whether or not the line's severe potential continues overnight. We are in the 45% range for damaging winds. That percentage means the SPC thinks there is a 45% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of a point. Statistically, from the center of the Grotonweather forecast area, a 25-mile radius covers the entire forecast area and some...so we can assume just a slightly lower probability of damaging winds in our area...very roughly 40%. That may not seem like a very high chance, but in reality, it is. I, however, am not so convinced, and would put the threat at maybe 20-30%. Here is why:

By the time the storms come over here, it will be well after dark. Typically, this would be very unfavorable for any severe weather with the loss of the daytime heating. However, our instability will actually increase overnight and, if the models are correct, peak sometime near or after sunrise tomorrow morning. From what I have been seeing on the models, the line should run our ahead of the main instability and thus weaken itself. Additionally...it will also likely outrun the upper level forcing and stronger winds aloft, which also come through tomorrow morning. If the timing of these matched up better, I would be more convinced a once-every couple years event was indeed unfolding.

Does this mean severe weather is not possible tonight? Absolutely not. These complexes of thunderstorms often develop their own mechanisms for keeping themselves going. If this were not the case, I wouldn't be overly concerned at all. Our instability will still only be marginal to moderate and, as I said earlier, the forcing and upper level winds aren't quite as good as a real classic event would have them. But since these things have a life of their own, there very well could be damage across our area overnight tonight. I do not feel at this time that the damage will be widespread, and certainly not on the scale of our area's most infamous overnight line of storms: The Labor Day 1998 event that destroyed the New York State fairgrounds.

Bottom line is this: Sometime after midnight, a line of thunderstorms should roll through our area. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, maybe a little small hail and gusty winds are likely. Some wind damage is not out of the question, but shouldn't be widespread. Rain and thunderstorms may continue to impact the region tomorrow morning though. Some models have shown very heavy rain in here tomorrow morning, so flash flooding could become a threat.

If anything looks like it has changed, I will post another update this afternoon. Otherwise, an update will be issued around 9m tonight to see how things have evolved through the day.