Wednesday, September 07, 2011

Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

 7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

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