tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-360171112024-03-13T11:59:13.372-04:00Groton Weather BlogThe Groton Weather Blog is just another dimension of the Groton Weather experience. I use the blog for longer range forecasts, updates and more in depth information on major events, as well as educational purposes. Please leave comments any time you wish; I am hoping this becomes more interactive! And be sure to check out the homepage at www.grotonweather.com!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.comBlogger211125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-168931926430576892012-05-24T13:54:00.000-04:002012-05-24T13:54:30.820-04:00Late-May News and UpdatesHello Grotonweather Fans! I have been working very hard over the past couple of months on new and exciting things. I thought I would type up a blog to explain and promote some of these things.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1yh70EmfLPWVW79orwt_zPxYlVer4veX9pg37LIA9IWcD8YIlhd_D4mqzf9CCaUiRYIVC2t0Js2j2My_n7yoXqMZEFRCL1nbnpK3_Dtd4XARDAcRd4vCBCx0bTV8TfGJO8n50-w/s1600/flwx.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1yh70EmfLPWVW79orwt_zPxYlVer4veX9pg37LIA9IWcD8YIlhd_D4mqzf9CCaUiRYIVC2t0Js2j2My_n7yoXqMZEFRCL1nbnpK3_Dtd4XARDAcRd4vCBCx0bTV8TfGJO8n50-w/s1600/flwx.jpg" /></a>First off is <b>Finger Lakes Weather (<a href="http://www.fl-weather.com/">www.fl-weather.com</a>)</b>, my new weather forecasting and consulting business. It is my hope that Finger Lakes Weather will become my career, helping local businesses, organizations, and the public with private and customizable weather forecasts. Finger Lakes Weather offers a variety of "Forecast Packages" tailored specifically towards various groups. For the spring, I offered a frost forecast package and was able to do some free-trial forecasting for Fox Run Vineyards and Three Brothers Vineyards, both on Seneca Lake. I have plans for a forecast package for construction workers. Right now, I am offering a special on vacation forecasting...but more on that later. Check out Finger Lakes Weather (the website again is <a href="http://www.fl-weather.com/">www.fl-weather.com</a>) and join the <b><a href="https://www.facebook.com/fingerlakesweather">Finger Lakes Facebook page</a></b>.<br />
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Next up is the <b>Grotonweather Radar Page</b> <b>(<a href="http://www.grotonweather.com/radar">www.grotonweather.com/radar</a>)</b>. I recently got some top-notch radar software that is used by many meteorologists, especially storm chasers and others interested in thunderstorms. This software allows me to upload the radar to the website, so that is what I have done. Furthermore, I can display things such as areas of possible hail, rotation in thunderstorms, winds, and watches and warnings. I can also zoom right in on a storm down to street-level. So far, this has been a HUGE success with hundred of views despite an overall quiet thunderstorm season thusfar.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg51_W6wbVUUvqXE4o2PL8FvXK0j3YmmbMi8102CYHaaGzRgYt0sbpq65mmBrTg6bM9dXi1OioKI0_nY_23c0ZsyijWOIXg5H_mK4nlnm3XOexPem2dIQOzX2zur74LaTzlVQdfiA/s1600/newfield_storm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg51_W6wbVUUvqXE4o2PL8FvXK0j3YmmbMi8102CYHaaGzRgYt0sbpq65mmBrTg6bM9dXi1OioKI0_nY_23c0ZsyijWOIXg5H_mK4nlnm3XOexPem2dIQOzX2zur74LaTzlVQdfiA/s320/newfield_storm.jpg" width="295" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A severe thunderstorm approaches Ithaca.</td></tr>
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Success does not come without price, however. And in this case, the price is measured in bandwidth. For those not familiar, bandwidth is basically the amount of data transferred to and from a website. The radar page uploads large image files every few minutes and quickly ate up my monthly bandwidth limit. That in turn forced me to purchase a more expensive hosting plan. My costs for running Grotonweather.com, not including time spent, is now approaching <b>$200 a year</b>.<br />
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Since 2006, when I started this operation, I have not received any revenue from my website. I am dedicated to keeping the website free. As costs continue to rise, something has to be done to offset some of these costs. Rather than charge money for Grotonweather and rather than flat out asking for donations, I decided a<b> fund-raiser</b> would be the best idea.<br />
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This is where the vacation forecasting package from Finger Lakes Weather <b>(<a href="http://www.fl-weather.com/vacation">www.fl-weather.com/vacation</a>)</b> comes back into play. As a fund-raiser, I am offering this service at a reduced price of just<b> $10 per day or $50 per week</b>. What does that entail? I will forecast for your travels to and from your vacation destination. I will forecast for you each morning of your trip so that you can know what to expect. If you have plans to engage in a certain activity- whether a day at the beach, a horseback ride, a bicycle tour...<b>anything at all</b>- I will forecast specifically for that activity and how the weather might impact your plans.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjikOuo0l0GeFYeFQK5Sn5xYYe7XVLOQdQr7y0cClsoiXWmRVA-8aC2y76ymfE8T9vMS-LMm1eE0a9OMlv16gSHGJqaYycytFjApuiofEtO4I83b_m0ztLlxiAIOzx1ZhwQELsxQ/s1600/perfect-storm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjikOuo0l0GeFYeFQK5Sn5xYYe7XVLOQdQr7y0cClsoiXWmRVA-8aC2y76ymfE8T9vMS-LMm1eE0a9OMlv16gSHGJqaYycytFjApuiofEtO4I83b_m0ztLlxiAIOzx1ZhwQELsxQ/s320/perfect-storm.jpg" width="320" /></a>Furthermore, I will do severe weather forecasting for you. Say you are driving down the highway in Kansas and you see storms ahead. You can give me a call- no matter what time of day or night- and ask me if they are severe. Or, if you are enjoying your vacation (which you should be!), but storms (or a hurricane!) are coming, I will reach out to you and let you know.<br />
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I think this is a really neat and unique service and I believe it will help you make the most of your vacation. And it would really help relieve some of the costs I have. So please, consider signing up before June 10th to get the sale price. Even if your vacation is in August or later, book it now. Here is the link again: <b><a href="http://www.fl-weather.com/vacation">www.fl-weather.com/vacation</a></b><br />
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Moving on now, I am slowly working on a redesign of Grotonweather.com. I am really excited about how it looks so far. I did a survey a couple of weeks ago on displaying confidence and uncertainty in forecasts. The results were a tremendous help, so thank you to all who participated! I am now doing a smaller follow-up survey on a proposed forecast layout change. Please, if you could take a moment and fill it out, I would be very grateful. Here is the link: <b><a href="http://www.grotonweather.com/survey%20">www.grotonweather.com/survey </a></b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHArJoAxM7hilnhyphenhyphenDQQRrEJSY7WSyMwhU7UocBTS2SItcUkaThwzWGnseAN0aVPhzYphQ-f-OxtGQ331kmtJeSdZQzS_f_Yko6B8DJxHp4Lg0yQCApWeUr4onCKU4S2MM9Jkz6AQ/s1600/storm_bg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHArJoAxM7hilnhyphenhyphenDQQRrEJSY7WSyMwhU7UocBTS2SItcUkaThwzWGnseAN0aVPhzYphQ-f-OxtGQ331kmtJeSdZQzS_f_Yko6B8DJxHp4Lg0yQCApWeUr4onCKU4S2MM9Jkz6AQ/s320/storm_bg.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
If that was all not enough, I also started a new project on Facebook in an attempt to 1) combine my strong religious beliefs with my love for the weather 2) help those threatened by severe weather on a national level and 3) expand my forecasting beyond just the Finger Lakes. The result is the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/stormingheaven"><b>Storming Heaven Facebook group</b></a>. If you believe in the power of prayer, go ahead an join up.<br />
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Back in late March, the <b>Groton Public Library</b> invited me to give an hour-long presentation. I presented on the Blizzard of 1993. Thank you to the library for the opportunity to speak! If you would like me to speak at your event or in your class (I've spoken at 3 schools since November), just send me an email or let me know on Facebook! <br />
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Thank you for reading this long post and for your continued support and interest in Grotonweather.com and the other projects I am working on. Stay tuned for more great features coming up...I am only getting started!!!Meteorologist Drew Montreuilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13405570147343792586noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-4552193427052877072012-04-20T09:06:00.000-04:002012-04-20T09:06:57.969-04:00Hold the Hype, PleaseFor the past few days, the models have been very inconsistent with one another, and from run-to-run (meaning the morning version of a model disagrees with the same model's afternoon version which disagrees with the night version and so on). The problem storm is a nor'easter that is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico before storming northward on Monday. Some models had been pushing the storm off the east coast, while others bring it further inland. As is always the case with these types of storms, the track is everything.<br />
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The evening models last night (Thursday) finally showed some agreement with a more inland track. This had some major implications on the meteorological community: the hype machine was put into full throttle. To understand this, and the forecasts that are gushing out, the public needs to glimpse into the mind of a meteorologist for a moment.<br />
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Most of us love storms...it is just part of our nature. Active weather is exciting. Unseasonable weather gets our adrenaline pumping. Average temperatures and sunny weather are, dare I say, boring. So when there is a big storm on the horizon, there is always a temptation to sensationalize it and force our predictions into more of what we want to happen and less what the models actually say will happen. This is called 'wishcasting'.<br />
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It is difficult not to wishcast, and it is something I struggled with a lot during the early days of Grotonweather. I easily got caught up in hype and would force situations to what I wanted to happen. I would latch onto little parts of the model that supported my desire, and ignore larger parts that would indicate I was about to make a bad forecast.<br />
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So when the models came into some semblance of agreement last night, the floodgates were opened. Many now felt justified in making big predictions-- after all, the models are all agreeing now!!<br />
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Hold the hype, please.<br />
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This is a nor'easter we are talking about, a proverbial thorn in the side of meteorologists for as long as they have been predicting weather in the Northeast. The models three days out for a nor'easter often do not capture the details that make or break the storm. Sometimes even the models a day out are no good. Consistency is the key. Just because the models yesterday evening agreed does not mean they will not disagree again this morning, afternoon or evening. It would be wise to see a few more runs of consistency before calling for a monster storm.<br />
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But now, to the wishcasting.<br />
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As I said above, meteorologists love active, out-of-season weather. What is more out of season than a heavy snowstorm in late April? And that is exactly what some meteorologists are calling for over parts of the region. However, given the current models, I feel such a forecast is uncalled for. Could it happen? Sure- history shows it can. I just do not think anyone is justified in making that call yet.<br />
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The first problem is the "540 thickness line". Meteorological jargon for sure, but let me explain. One of the (many) equations we have to learn in school related the average temperature of the atmosphere above a given point to the pressure at certain levels in the atmosphere. A warmer atmosphere will cause higher pressures, and thus a "thicker" atmosphere.<br />
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There are certain rules of thumb for how "thick" an air column above a point can be before the air is too warm for snow. One of those rules is the 540 line. To keep things simple, it suffices to know that values below 540 are favorable for snow and values above 540 are going to be rain. This rule has a catch though: it works best in the dead of winter. In late fall and early spring, values at or just below 540 probably are going to be rain, or perhaps a rain/snow mix at best. I like to see values closer to 534 before I get excited about snow.<br />
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Let us now look at Monday morning at 8am, the time that many meteorologists are posting images of the models for. Surface temperatures will be coldest at this time, with daytime heating kicking in for the afternoon Monday.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkImkm8Jw4_c7cVnwbK7rdE6EJuIxjzGqXPOeZdqQna7gUv6kWTwJcDA0NoKLfkiWP8PcklQ6zGnDhoX87m3GjyVJZxPEiRw1dXrE18k0tHS6n9BntgnFpSqsa2x_9g8DL4rZxFw/s1600/4_22_12z_models.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkImkm8Jw4_c7cVnwbK7rdE6EJuIxjzGqXPOeZdqQna7gUv6kWTwJcDA0NoKLfkiWP8PcklQ6zGnDhoX87m3GjyVJZxPEiRw1dXrE18k0tHS6n9BntgnFpSqsa2x_9g8DL4rZxFw/s400/4_22_12z_models.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Major snow storm? The models don't think so.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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As you can see, these three major models all indicate little, if any, snow confined to the far western fringes of the storm. Additionally, temperatures have been unseasonably warm all winter and spring. The ground, therefore, is also unseasonably warm. Late April storms of the past (2007 and 1993 for example) have come following very snowy years where the ground was likely cooler than normal. I have a hard time believing snow would accumulate very easily except perhaps over the highest elevations unless it got very cold (surface temperatures in the 20s).<br />
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Models try to directly guess the precipitation type and snowfall amounts, and some will undoubtedly point to those model outputs as their justification. (The NAM model, for example, has 6" of snow in Ithaca on Monday). Those model predictions are basically made by taking the model predictions, putting them through more equations and conditions, and then trying to make a new prediction. They can be useful, but the more processed the model data is, the greater the opportunity for error. The precipitation type and snowfall amounts, especially from the NAM model, I have found to be rather unreliable this spring. A few weeks ago, this same model insisted on bringing Ithaca another storm of 6-12". It rained.<br />
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In conclusion, this is what I want the public to take away from this. We don't know what will happen yet. Confidence is low and this system needs to be watched. While I enjoy the loyalty my patrons have to Grotonweather, I encourage them to look at other forecasts, too. I have been wrong before and will be again in the future.<br />
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What I want other meteorologists to take from this is as follows: we, as a meteorological community, need to focus more on uncertainty and communicating that in our forecasts. We need to cut the hype and sensationalizing every large storm. There are times when we NEED to really play up a storm- like last weekend's tornado outbreak. There was a lot of justified hype last weekend and it saved lives. This weekend's hype is not justified. Where do we draw that line? It is impossible to say for sure. But I can say it needs to be drawn better than it currently is, or when it does matter, people are not going to listen.Meteorologist Drew Montreuilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08018054990870642162noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-1026931146052255412012-04-06T08:00:00.003-04:002012-04-06T08:00:37.946-04:00Fire and Ice<i> Reposted from <a href="http://fl-weather.com/news/12/04/06.php">Finger Lakes Weather</a>:</i><br />
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The Finger Lakes area will be under assault from fire and ice over the
next two days. It sounds like Armageddon, and while it certainly is not,
these are serious risks that need to be addressed.<br />
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A large area of high pressure is building into the region from
Canada. The air with this high is extremely dry. With a lot of the
vegetation still not growing, coupled with a general lack of significant
precipitation over the last days, weeks and even months, this dry air
will only continue to dry things out. The strong April sun will be out
full force during the day. This will heat the ground, which will cause
the air to rise. New air will rush in to take its place in the form of
strong, gusty winds. Not only will the strong winds quickly fan any
fires that do pop up, but the wind helps dry vegetation as well.<br />
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Because of this high fire risk, burning is strongly discouraged and
extra care needs to be taken with any open heat source. This includes
cigarette butts and welding sparks. It will not take much for a fire to
start and quickly spread. Any brush fire has the potential to spread to
buildings and put our firefighters, and the public, at risk.<br />
As the sun sets, two important things happen. First, the ground is
no longer heated, which causes the winds to die down. Second, the
temperatures begins to fall, which increases the relative humidity in
the atmosphere. While this effectively reduces the fire risk, it opens
the door for frost and freeze conditions. Generally, Saturday morning
will be as cold as Friday morning, within a couple degrees on either
side. If you needed to take precautions against the cold this morning,
you will want to repeat your efforts for tomorrow.<br />
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Saturday afternoon, we continue with another very high fire risk.
By Easter Sunday, our problems will begin to lessen. Some moisture will
work in, keeping our relative humidity higher during the day and our
fire risk subsequently lower. This moisture should also increase the
clouds into next week, keeping our nighttime low temperatures up. There
are still a lot of details that are unknown next week, but it looks
chilly. Check back Monday for a new blog, and have a happy Easter!Meteorologist Drew Montreuilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08018054990870642162noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-71046510431104233932012-02-17T09:24:00.000-05:002012-02-17T13:44:04.930-05:00Winter Over? Not so fast...<b>Update: 1:30pm</b><br />
I just wanted to add a comment here. I have been reached out to by multiple members of the Channel9 Storm Team to discuss this all further. Additionally, they posted a second post on their Facebook page to give greater clarification to their statement. This is why I started my blog post below praising the Storm Team meteorologists and expressing my great respect for them!<br />
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I've considered taking this blog down all together based on the conversations I've had with the Storm Team. I've decided to leave it up, however, because I do feel that public interpretation of forecasts is a crucial topic. I think this whole situation can shed some light on the topic for meteorologists and the public alike. Forecasting is difficult enough. Expressing the forecast to the public is another thing entirely.<br />
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<i>Original Post: </i><br />
Every once in a while, I come across a forecast that, quite honestly, makes my skin crawl. I try not to be judgmental about them- I've made plenty of bone-headed forecasts myself. At the same time though, sometimes something just needs to be said.<br />
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Let me preface my forthcoming rant with the following: I have a great deal of respect for the meteorologists at News Channel 9. I have met a number of them and they are great people. Their forecasts are typically very good and they are extremely intelligent. They do a great job.<br />
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Just not this time. This isn't meant to be an attack on them in any way, but the record needs to be set straight. It is February 17th. Historically, we could see significant snow well into April. (see April 16-17, 2007 for example). I cannot fathom how anyone can declare winter over at this stage, but that is what Channel 9 did:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5upjkLxl5TBbzDdYOeKQAr2fe5ZRmND-R0T2uP3qvh8iSoVzGpD8H1BwUKNia6Lg7ocsjC480VrXmwFTrZoUjsMCMSOb-_MrcbSA7rN9FBgegUTQdHtdeqnlg72ESeEwkYuJi/s1600/winter_over.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5upjkLxl5TBbzDdYOeKQAr2fe5ZRmND-R0T2uP3qvh8iSoVzGpD8H1BwUKNia6Lg7ocsjC480VrXmwFTrZoUjsMCMSOb-_MrcbSA7rN9FBgegUTQdHtdeqnlg72ESeEwkYuJi/s1600/winter_over.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
First, let's look at the graphic that they are using to declare winter over. It is a probability map put out by the Climate Prediction Center for March, April and May. Areas in orange have a chance of seeing above normal temperatures, while areas in blue may see cooler than normal temperatures. Areas in white have an equal probability of seeing either cold, warm or normal temperatures. Let's zoom in and take a closer look at the Northeast:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlA0WFX5WzwW1aaJ9KoZgJ6mZVcH9YphQUzLCxckQgQZ1uaY6-WdLidiYdc2vyqOxplEhm9MJ-C3mPSIjc2ZsXD-5e303y9La23jlSwWwqJJzc0vpdPh9ACS7YxE1sv2zo28tS/s1600/cpc1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="299" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlA0WFX5WzwW1aaJ9KoZgJ6mZVcH9YphQUzLCxckQgQZ1uaY6-WdLidiYdc2vyqOxplEhm9MJ-C3mPSIjc2ZsXD-5e303y9La23jlSwWwqJJzc0vpdPh9ACS7YxE1sv2zo28tS/s320/cpc1.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Now, there are three possibilities for what can actually happen. We can be above average, below average, or right at normal. So in the white, "equal chance" areas, the probabilities of each of those three outcomes is about 33%. Each shade of orange/blue represents a greater chance of seeing warmer/colder temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center labels each shade with a percent value. I have marked the 40% line, as it was a bit hard to see. Areas inside that 40% line, that is in the darker orange shade, have a 40% or greater chance of seeing above normal temperatures. The lighter orange shade, which includes Central New York, is predicted to have a 33-40% chance of seeing above normal temperatures. Given that the 33% line is very close to us, it can be assumed that it is more like a 33-35% chance.<br />
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<b>That means we have about a 2% chance more than normal of seeing above normal temperatures.</b><br />
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Since the chances of a warm March, April and May are up by about 2%, and probabilities must add up to 100%, we can assume that the probabilities of a colder than normal March, April and May are running at about 31% and a normal period at 33%. Let's look at this forecast in another way:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4B0aalPTcIAUpyVAuzKfgOrEnst4W_PmTvPIYYU2QqZ3L-YxwtDsoq6dgZcQJYhueo91IHxuQndA9ri-udFwhkmIKO-qU3i1VFoUjpNMHZTFSB22_2NPhjhcxsMTyf-dzHqGh/s1600/mam.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4B0aalPTcIAUpyVAuzKfgOrEnst4W_PmTvPIYYU2QqZ3L-YxwtDsoq6dgZcQJYhueo91IHxuQndA9ri-udFwhkmIKO-qU3i1VFoUjpNMHZTFSB22_2NPhjhcxsMTyf-dzHqGh/s320/mam.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Honestly, can you see much of a difference? Yes, we have a higher chance of above normal temperatures than anything else. But that increased chance is such a minor increase. If these were medical test results, would we want our doctors declaring definitely that the test was conclusive one way or another with a 35-33-31 distribution? I think not.<br />
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The other thing to consider is how accurate these probability forecasts are in the first place. The following as a graphic the Climate Prediction Center publishes along with their seasonal forecasts. It looks confusing, but I will explain it:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWNa6aAUaGFzbgwg_960kfPPuZu-DtV34AeOgJ2WS0pXMcGCMlLU88zAkPAM8TQ1tnHRoYY30Fqdo8XMZj7qYKXz3nm8-TAR9fX01ObUcOle5keCI2kPYZ6BkqWIt8IfV-mMX3/s1600/cpc_skill.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWNa6aAUaGFzbgwg_960kfPPuZu-DtV34AeOgJ2WS0pXMcGCMlLU88zAkPAM8TQ1tnHRoYY30Fqdo8XMZj7qYKXz3nm8-TAR9fX01ObUcOle5keCI2kPYZ6BkqWIt8IfV-mMX3/s640/cpc_skill.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
First, some background. There are numerous ways to calculate forecast accuracy. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is just one of those ways. A HSS of 100 means the forecast was perfect. A HSS of -50 is the worst possible forecast, and a HSS of 0 means the forecast was as good as a random guess.<br />
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We are looking at the red lines, which are labeled 'non-CL'. These 'non-CL' lines are the skill of forecasts where either colder than normal or warmer than normal forecasts are made. The year-to-year changes between these red lines are huge. You will notice a horizontal red line at 20. This is the average HSS for non-CL predictions from 1995-2008. The score is 20. Remember, a perfect forecast is 100 and a random guess is 0. A 20 is an extremely poor score and shows just how difficult it is to predict temperatures for the next three months.<br />
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Putting these two things together, <b>we have a very slim chance of warmer weather based on a forecast that is much closer to a random guess than a perfect forecast.</b><br />
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With this knowledge, can you see why this upsets me? Meteorologists have an unspoken contract with the public to give accurate, informative forecasts. We <b>have</b> to do this to build trust between the meteorologist and the public. Why? Because when a tornado is bearing down on your neighborhood, or a major snow storm is on the way, or anything else that threatens lives and property, we need people to listen to us. <b>Way too often, meteorologists, particularly in the media, betray this trust with garbage statements like this.</b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>It needs to stop.</b></span><br />
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Now, I commented on that Facebook post and the response I got was "<span class="commentBody" data-jsid="text">our forecasts are based on more than just what we are showing here- this graphic just happens to sum things up nicely." My argument is that 1) the graphic really shows nothing, as I explained previously and 2) there is no expression of uncertainty or these other factors. All that is said is 'winter is over.' I'm not against long-range forecasting. I am against long-range forecasts that don't express the inherent extreme uncertainty that they contain. And this is one of the worst offenders I've seen.</span><br />
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Might they end up being right? Sure. They might. If they are, was it skill or luck? I'll let you be the judge.Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-19937994484734307562011-12-29T12:36:00.000-05:002011-12-29T12:37:59.192-05:00Arctic Outbreak?We all knew it was probably only a matter of time before the weather finally turned more winter like. We got a taste of winter yesterday with some lake effect snow, strong winds, and temperatures in the 20s. While we have been warm lately, 500 miles to the north has been frigid. The chill yesterday and, to some extent, today, is just a small piece of that cold pool.<br />
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A much bigger piece will be breaking off next week. It will easily be the coldest air so far this season, with highs Tuesday and probably Wednesday staying in the teens. There will be wind. There will be snow. But will this be an 'arctic outbreak'?<br />
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There is no set definition for an arctic outbreak, so the use of the term is up to the discretion of the forecaster. It seems to me, however, that 'arctic outbreak' should be a term reserved for record setting or dangerous cold. It is a strong term that grabs people's attention. I do not think it should be overused.<br />
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Does the combination of high temperatures in the teens, gusty winds and lake effect snow meet these qualifications? I am honestly on the fence.<br />
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On the one hand, it seems to me that highs in the teens are not all that impressive, given our climatology and the time of the year. Some lake effect snow and wind? That is just normal winter weather here.<br />
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Yet, on the other hand, this has not been a typical winter. We have only one high temperature under 30º (on the 24th...the high yesterday was actually 40, albeit that was at midnight). Snow has been scarce to non-existent. Being suddenly thrust into mid-winter weather may catch some off guard and create dangerous conditions.<br />
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In the end though, I think I would hesitate to use the words 'arctic outbreak' in my forecasts for the coming cold snap. I believe that the public should be aware that the pattern is changing and, at least for a few days, winter will be here in full.<br />
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But I do not want to sensationalize things and blow them out of proportion. This event, after all, is still nearly a week away. I've seen many extreme temperature events forecast this far out, only to have the models gradually and consistently modify temperatures back towards more normal temperatures.<br />
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I want to hear what you think though. Join the discussion and post what your definition of an arctic outbreak would be on Facebook by <a href="https://www.facebook.com/grotonweather/posts/10150497983992318" target="_blank">clicking here</a>.Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-33672545560816629002011-09-07T18:11:00.000-04:002011-09-07T19:33:55.111-04:00Respite Coming..But so is More Rain 7:30 PM Update-<br />
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Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.<br />
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Wednesday- 6PM<br />
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For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.<br />
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For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. <b>THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING</b>. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.<br />
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Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjucRCRB8vfQ8dv6nGdeErZ2wsLzSsWwM7OyhZqdkaj9pWESIglyUQLzQXSEaSNiqnGvnxvaMSlMpuGK0tAA1RUrmFkoimJeoMQKxi7kta1KsYO884a-H_y3_d5cc8UD1n-0m4G/s1600/HRRR_9_8_11_19z_valid3z.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="313" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjucRCRB8vfQ8dv6nGdeErZ2wsLzSsWwM7OyhZqdkaj9pWESIglyUQLzQXSEaSNiqnGvnxvaMSlMpuGK0tAA1RUrmFkoimJeoMQKxi7kta1KsYO884a-H_y3_d5cc8UD1n-0m4G/s320/HRRR_9_8_11_19z_valid3z.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.</td></tr>
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If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.<br />
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If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.<br />
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This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather <a href="http://www.grotonweather.com/">website</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/grotonweather">facebook</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/grotonweather">twitter</a> pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-79155499165634021692011-09-07T14:24:00.001-04:002011-09-07T16:34:40.908-04:00Growing Flood Concern 4:30PM Update-<br />
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Everything is progressing as I feared and a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Tompkins and southern Cayuga Counties. The ENTIRE Grotonweather forecast area is now under FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. This is going to be a long night for our area.<br />
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Wednesday- 2:15PM<br />
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So far, the Grotonweather.com tri-county area has more or less been spared of major problems, at least that I am aware of. Our neighbors to the south and east in Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties have not been as fortunate. Massive and widespread flooding has prompted Flash Flood EMERGENCIES for all three counties, with a State of Emergency also in effect for Broome County. Many roads are under water and bridges are in danger of washing out. This is a very dangerous and deadly situation in these areas. Under no circumstances should you be traveling to those areas tonight.<br />
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Here is what is really worrying me though...our luck could soon run out. In the image below, you can see a band of very heavy rain moving north through Pennsylvania right towards our area, which is outlined in red. The heavy rain to our east will continue to move to the northeast.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBgjZLZTZY_GtuZATgASNmXFx9b8J7tOskeiFtHOjgzYB9AYNsU88vMHs2iUGm2b1cJAmrtQrc-j8-efpLlJJm43STHt8riHg-3eH3tW7VikJRsOULEEkNmxtSjV9RK_jdJ_n_/s1600/flood_9_7_11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBgjZLZTZY_GtuZATgASNmXFx9b8J7tOskeiFtHOjgzYB9AYNsU88vMHs2iUGm2b1cJAmrtQrc-j8-efpLlJJm43STHt8riHg-3eH3tW7VikJRsOULEEkNmxtSjV9RK_jdJ_n_/s320/flood_9_7_11.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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This band of rain extends all the way down past Washington DC and seems to only be increasing in size and intensity. If the flooding that is occurring to our south and east is any indication what a couple more inches of rain will do, our area may be in trouble.<br />
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I urge everyone to be extra vigilant this afternoon, evening and overnight. This is one of the most dangerous situations in Grotonweather history, if not for our immediate area, then for our neighbors directly nearby. DO NOT drive or walk in flood waters. If the water is flowing, chances are that you will need to be rescued. If you are told to evacuate, do so. In fact, if you live near a stream that is already full or near...be prepared to leave on a moment's notice. The time to prepare is now.<br />
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Please share this post with your friends and family. Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-84626409715398640232011-08-30T08:07:00.006-04:002011-08-30T11:44:47.943-04:00Was Irene Really a Bust?In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jJGBggMfEcJ6zgMpXEy_CcXYpnsYqMfEM4zSzW1Oi-0zrXT77ZhTJ71oiCpvNyrs9Y75kSVxfB0rrcDgIonbrFrXg9pS2Ms1To75NII6rseV4eVHzAIGYV0VGAmzI0uIF09n/s1600/alg_stauteofliberty.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 171px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7jJGBggMfEcJ6zgMpXEy_CcXYpnsYqMfEM4zSzW1Oi-0zrXT77ZhTJ71oiCpvNyrs9Y75kSVxfB0rrcDgIonbrFrXg9pS2Ms1To75NII6rseV4eVHzAIGYV0VGAmzI0uIF09n/s320/alg_stauteofliberty.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5646620362668408850" border="0" /></a>If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.
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<br />The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?
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<br />If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNUuiyKXyc90Qvf7aSGzoWPS-7NHiSXLfYF23ghA71m5raXrF-vaUggTfZUZD5_9BIzn6aPuHYZTr_e56rTxYEOTcq3KzKGMRp7-M4KqYDYKnhOQPIsIKyideLcY9HfIR1Vn34/s1600/northeast_loop-of-Irene-in-NJ-8.28.2011.gif"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 305px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNUuiyKXyc90Qvf7aSGzoWPS-7NHiSXLfYF23ghA71m5raXrF-vaUggTfZUZD5_9BIzn6aPuHYZTr_e56rTxYEOTcq3KzKGMRp7-M4KqYDYKnhOQPIsIKyideLcY9HfIR1Vn34/s320/northeast_loop-of-Irene-in-NJ-8.28.2011.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5646671919023808290" border="0" /></a> the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.
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<br />As of this writing, 2.5 <span style="font-style: italic;">million</span> homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. <span style="font-style: italic;">Homes</span> have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">over</span> <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">150 years</span>. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?
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<br />And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.
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<br />The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.
<br />Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-53396424231361875802011-06-26T11:50:00.002-04:002011-06-26T11:55:01.171-04:00Down TimeJust a quick administrative note:<br /><br />Each summer, I take a couple weeks off from intensive forecasting. This gives me a chance to do some other projects, recharge, and, usually, get some new ideas. As such, this summer I will not be updating the website from <span style="font-weight: bold;">June 29 (Wednesday) through July 16th (or so)</span>.<br /><br />Grotonweather.com will not be devoid of updated weather information though! Traditionally, I have many links and graphics from the National Weather Service and other trustworthy weather sources that have up-to-date information. My tropical weather page also automatically updates with information on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may form. I do this so that you can continue to be safe and informed, even while the site is not fully operating.<br /><br />I thank you all for your continued support and understanding!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-34598929113856421632011-06-13T17:46:00.003-04:002011-06-13T17:53:34.947-04:00The Grotonweather.com Name...I believe a bit of an administrative post is in order to follow up on the poll I had on my website over the weekend about the future name of Grotonweather.com.<br /><br />First off, I would like to thank everyone who took time to take the survey. The information you gave me was a HUGE help in deciding my future course of action! I had a very good turnout on this survey, and there were some surprising results.<br /><br />The overwhelming majority of you, it seems, really like the name 'grotonweather.com' and did NOT want to see it changed. This is not the results I expected and, in all honesty, I was not sure what to do for a bit. However, it is with great pleasure that I announce to you now that <span style="font-weight: bold;">the grotonweather.com name will NOT be changing!</span><br /><br />Now, the whole reason for wanting to change names in the first place was to, over the course of the next few years, grow this operation into something even larger. That is by all means still in the works, and I made a couple purchases just before making this post as the first steps in this plan. Details likely will not be coming out on this until the fall...or later...but I wanted to assure you all once more that there are no plans to get rid of the current site or current name.<br /><br />Thank you all once again for your support and feedback! It is very much appreciated!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-46516063101719682362011-06-09T12:18:00.003-04:002011-06-09T12:29:34.603-04:00No Alert Mode this time...A potentially significant severe weather outbreak across much of the northeast, including our area is beginning. However, Grotonweather.com will NOT be going into alert mode for this event. As I mentioned in the <a href="http://grotonweather.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-does-alert-mode-mean.html">Alert Mode blog</a>, I take the issuing of Alert Mode <span style="font-weight: bold;">very</span> seriously. I only issue them when it seems like widespread, life threatening weather is likely.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Today's event is very close to that criteria, and I cannot say for sure that I will not issue Alert Mode status later in the day.</span> At this point though, I do not think the storms will organize quite fast enough to bring the high risks necessary for an Alert Mode. If this site was for Chenango, Monroe and Otsego counties, I very likely would be going into Alert Mode. The worst of this event, in terms of spatial coverage and intensity, will likely be just to our east.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">That being said</span>, storms are already starting to develop in our area and just to the west. These storms will not take long to become severe, and our threats for wind damage and hail remain at a '<span style="font-weight: bold;">MODERATE</span>' level. Winds up to 80mph and two inch hail are not totally out of the question. Stay tuned for updates!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-40130807866236507722011-05-02T10:58:00.007-04:002011-05-09T16:05:40.086-04:00Severe Weather Awareness WeekThis week is Severe Weather Awareness Week. In light of the recent severe and tornadic thunderstorms, I think its very important that we realize that dangerous and deadly weather can and does occur in our area. The first step to keeping yourself safe is education. I will be updating this blog each day with links to the National Weather Service pages for each day of Severe Weather Awareness Week.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=mon">Monday- Overview</a><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=tue">Tuesday- Severe Thunderstorms</a><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=wed">Wednesday- Severe Weather Preparedness</a><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=thu">Thursday- Tornado Watches & Warnings</a><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=fri">Friday- Flood Preparedness</a><br /><a href="http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/preparedness/swaw/ny2011/index.php?PASSEDDATE=satbutton">Saturday- Communication of Hazardous Weather Information</a>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-41271669822401469572011-04-06T10:47:00.004-04:002011-04-06T10:52:44.428-04:00Monday's Historic Thunderstorms<p><span style="font-style: italic;">Story originally published on Syracuse.com by Drew Montreuil.</span><br /></p><p>I wanted to take a couple moments and point out some pretty amazing things that happened Monday across the eastern half of the nation. A huge severe weather outbreak blasted across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the southeast. Severe weather was reported from Texas to Florida, northward into Pennsylvania. Even here in Central New York, we had a few strong thunderstorms. Three-quarter inch hail was reported Monday morning near Ithaca and in Norwich. Hail must measure one inch in diameter before it is considered "severe".</p> <p>While the National Weather Service continues to do surveys of the damage, the number of reports will continue to increase. But here are some numbers that are just mind blowing:</p> <div id="asset-9463163" class="entry_widget_large entry_widget_left"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0FB-TlttDBcH0diFQr_BBxOqD_RcupZo1yBYD1WZUfiFTnm-zkowJd_UmhY28IyZBkRfxKWbG2g2_p39ca3MMIVGLyDWThiE49Xkm1_OjrJdkGEZl77THipV9Sddd5WkFUzk/s1600/110404_rpts.gif"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 224px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiR0FB-TlttDBcH0diFQr_BBxOqD_RcupZo1yBYD1WZUfiFTnm-zkowJd_UmhY28IyZBkRfxKWbG2g2_p39ca3MMIVGLyDWThiE49Xkm1_OjrJdkGEZl77THipV9Sddd5WkFUzk/s320/110404_rpts.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5592482586092315826" border="0" /></a></div><p>As of 10AM Wednesday, there were 1377 total reports of wind damage, 1"+ hail or tornadoes from Monday. Since 2000, there has not been a single day with this many severe weather reports. Of the nearly 1400 reports, 1245 were damaging wind reports. The squall line responsible for this outbreak did not stop producing severe weather because it died; it simply moved off shore over the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, there were a number of fatalities associated with these storms as tornadoes destroyed homes and trees were downed onto houses. <span class="adv-photo-large"><span class="photo-data"><span class="caption">The image above, from the Storm Prediction Center, shows the severe weather reports from Monday's historic outbreak. Blue dots represent wind damage, while red dots are tornado reports and green dots are hail an inch in diameter or greater. Click the image for a larger view.<br /></span></span></span></p><p>More spring-like weather will be on the way for the East, including Central New York. Another powerful storm system will form over the Great Plains this weekend and head up into Canada. A cold front will blast across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, with more severe weather possible. Currently the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting areas from Minnesota and Wisconsin south to Texas and Louisiana and eastward to Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee as the highest potential for severe weather. As we get closer to the weekend though, I would not be surprised to see that threat shifted further to the east. Whether or not we get into the thunderstorms once more is still a bit questionable, but at the very least, our temperatures will shoot into the 60s, maybe even near 70 Sunday and Monday.</p>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-70588778241432126322011-03-27T17:39:00.002-04:002011-03-27T17:43:34.468-04:00Spring 2011 SurveyEvery year or so, I do a survey on Grotonweather.com. These surveys are extremely useful to me! They help me gauge how I am doing, what I can do better, what new features to add, and what old features should be removed along with other information. I never allow my surveys to go over 10 questions long so that I can keep it short and simple for you.<br /><br />I would <span style="font-weight: bold;">greatly</span> appreciate it if you took a couple minutes and filled out the Spring 2011 Survey. Thank you very much for your time!<br /><a style="color: rgb(153, 0, 0);" href="http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/NYL96KH"><br /><span style="font-size:130%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">CLICK HERE TO TAKE THE SURVEY</span></span></a>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-71516126952809249672011-03-09T22:51:00.004-05:002011-03-10T08:18:36.734-05:00What does an "Alert Mode" mean?Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into <span style="font-weight: bold;">"Alert Mode"</span> for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.<br /><br />The <span style="font-weight: bold;">Alert Mode</span> is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode <span style="font-weight: bold;">threatens lives and property</span>. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to<span style="font-weight: bold;"> highlight the potential dangers</span>.<br /><br />Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:<br /><br />First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be <span style="font-weight: bold;">above and beyond</span> the "average" bad weather situation.<br /><br />Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into<span style="font-weight: bold;"> Standby</span> to raise awareness of the <span style="font-style: italic;">potential for</span> devastating weather.<br /><br />When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on <span style="font-weight: bold;">Facebook and/or Twitter</span> for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/Grotonweathercom/121612807317?ref=ts">Facebook</a> and <a href="http://twitter.com/GrotonWeather">Twitter</a> pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including <span style="font-weight: bold;">Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps</span>.<br /><br />The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help <span style="font-weight: bold;">prevent that from ever becoming a reality</span>. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "<span style="font-style: italic;">keep checking back for updates!</span>"Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-80385832620892830172011-02-24T18:54:00.003-05:002011-02-24T19:07:02.060-05:002/24 PM Forecast DiscussionMy apologies for having to post this here. The SUNY Oswego campus network has somehow decided to block all Grotonweather.com traffic from its network. I have managed to update most of the forecast as normal, but things such as the confidence forecast and uploading snow maps are impossible. Hopefully this will be fixed soon....in the mean time, we have a snow storm on our hands!<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Forecast Discussion</span><br />A rapidly strengthening storm system over Arkansas will lift north and east, crossing across Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. The models are more or less in agreement with one another now, and they all keep the warm air and rain to the south. Despite this, I am still a tiny bit weary of the possibility of rain for Tompkins and southern Cortland County, as the rain/snow line will only be 30-50 miles to the south. I do have enough confidence to go with all snow now though. As I said this morning, since this storm is probably going to end up all snow, we are going to get it good. Below the discussion is the snow map I made for this storm. Most of the Grotonweather.com area is in the 7-14" range. Honestly though, I would not be at all surprised to see 16" or even 18" somewhere in that pink area. The snow will move in after midnight tonight and really become heavy for the morning hours tomorrow. By afternoon, the snow should begin to taper off. However, the winds will be on the increase, blowing all that fresh snow around. Significant blowing and drifting is likely tomorrow. I would likely be going into SNOW ALERT MODE if I had access to my files. Saturday and Sunday will each feature a shot at a few flurries, but nothing significant. Another storm will be in the works for Monday, but this one should remain all rain with the low tracking well to our west.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9wHFB0HahtgXLt9HLXGAnxjkgfX9RSvsEGhJLo-M1txmqoP2hs5hPJkfWIaP09BuwGqj9ND1c0VRAs5JxRpYK1OPAiZPyDboh-krqnxd9wunZPld-4OfEBfiR6v5Xbazd3GNL/s1600/2_25_storm.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 307px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9wHFB0HahtgXLt9HLXGAnxjkgfX9RSvsEGhJLo-M1txmqoP2hs5hPJkfWIaP09BuwGqj9ND1c0VRAs5JxRpYK1OPAiZPyDboh-krqnxd9wunZPld-4OfEBfiR6v5Xbazd3GNL/s320/2_25_storm.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5577411830746086706" border="0" /></a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Storm total snowfall through Friday evening.</span>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-38380301335413890262011-02-02T10:23:00.001-05:002011-02-02T10:26:48.871-05:00The Hype MachineMy good friend, classmate and colleague Evan Duffey posted a wonderful piece on Syracuse.com this morning. He has given me permission to repost it here. There are a lot of excellent points he makes about how big storms get blown way out of proportion through hear-say and media hype. Take a look:<br /><br /><h1>Storm under-performs, public and media hype make it worse</h1><p>For those of you wondering why you children's classes were canceled, or what happened to the 18"+ of snow you were expecting because your neighbors told you it would happen, I have your answer. The storm grew to massive size and intensity - in a special place I call overexcited media and populace. The storm, while no pushover, is not that epic, and should never have been treated as so.</p> <p>In talking to fellow Meteorologist and Syracuse.com blogger Andrew Montreuil, he agrees he is upset at how this storm got hyped up.</p> <p>While the storm will probably leave a decent impact on the area, talk of 18", 2 feet, etc. have been floating around either word of mouth or the internet. My max total event given during the entire even was 14".</p> <p>Which brings me to a point I would like to bring up. A MAX snowfall accumulation is not what we expect, it's more then what we expect. When a meteorologist puts up a snowfall range, even I put a little extra on that top number just in case the unexpected occurs. Sadly the public takes this number as what they are going to get. For all of you interested in weather, try to remember this when reading forecasts and discussions.</p> <p>Now to the meat - why did this storm under-perform even Meteorologists predictions for a storm? I hinted at the reason in a comment I made a few days ago, in my first post about the storm. I said "I think the upper limits of snowfall are possible only if warm, dry air doesn't work its way in too far North." This is pretty much what happened.</p> <div id="asset-9243999" class="entry_widget_large entry_widget_right"><span class="adv-photo-large"><img src="http://media.syracuse.com/weather/photo/9243999-large.jpg" style="display: block;" class="adv-photo" alt="radar.JPG" width="380" height="178" /><span class="photo-data"><span class="caption"></span></span><span class="photo-bottom-left"></span><span class="photo-bottom-right"></span></span></div> <p>Radar overnight revealed a large dry slot was working into the storm. Dry-slots are almost always destructive to storms, taking away some of their thermodynamic strength, and obviously precipitation is hard pressed to be found in an area called a dry slot.</p> <p>Blogger Drew Montreuil was involved in a Q&A session recently, and one of them really brings to light a lot about the forecast and expectations. Here is the quote:</p> <p>...just in my day today I have overhead people talking about how we are supposed to get 2 feet of snow and such. These are over exaggerations. Often times, forecasts for big storms seem to take a life of their own. People mishear or misread things and, like a massive game of telephone, things get blown out of proportion. Another common mistake I see all the time is people assuming the high end of a snow prediction will be what happens. If there is a forecast for 6-12", but only 5" falls....it really is a decent forecast. But the hype before hand makes it seem like a bust.</p> <p>To answer the question directly...I could see this "busting" slightly, yes. There are some indications drier air may work in quicker than what was earlier thought. This could bring the snow to an end a bit quicker, and keep us more in the 4-7" range instead of 6-10". Its a developing situation, and one can never be too sure they have the forecast nailed until the event actually happens...</p> <p>Hopefully your day isn't too upset by the hype and over forecast of this winter storm, and please don't blame meteorologists. We aren't all that wrong.</p>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-48452204163217402752011-01-26T10:28:00.008-05:002011-01-26T10:41:13.044-05:00Just how low did it go?<div id="TopStoriesBox" style="display: block;"><div class="top_stories"> </div></div><i>Original post appeared on Syracuse.com on 1/26/11; posted by Drew Montreuil. This version is edited.</i><br /><br />You certainly do not need a meteorologist to tell you that the cold was bone-chilling Monday morning. However, you might be interested to know how cold it actually got across Central New York. <p><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyQyUzOsX7TyAHHcnkUv51IFI4na1P0lWaz8bmHOKl5h_fjQYIpUzwBjYl9l1vFCevmgs0Y7WwtTiHd8mxje_8PQtPGVSOPrD0LsXXOuJLDrHnJsr4SchvBQ0_44VqJRx80i_l/s1600/1_24_lows.png"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 307px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyQyUzOsX7TyAHHcnkUv51IFI4na1P0lWaz8bmHOKl5h_fjQYIpUzwBjYl9l1vFCevmgs0Y7WwtTiHd8mxje_8PQtPGVSOPrD0LsXXOuJLDrHnJsr4SchvBQ0_44VqJRx80i_l/s320/1_24_lows.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5566519165223829138" border="0" /></a></p><p><span style="font-style: italic;">Click the map for a bigger view!</span><br /></p><p>I put together a map of reported low temperatures from around Central New York. Most of these low temperatures were reported to the National Weather Service through co-op spotters. Some of the other readings were recorded on personal weather stations that upload data onto <a href="http://www.wunderground.com/">The Weather Underground</a>.</p><p>As you can see, the temperatures can vary greatly over a short distance depending on a number of factors, including elevation, proximity to water and urban vs rural settings. A great example of this is Groton's reported -8º. This temperature was taken at a high elevation somewhat near the Elementary School. On cold nights, the coldest air settles in the valleys. Therefore, I would not be surprised if someone sees the map and thinks: "But I saw the bank thermometer Monday morning say -15º!" Down in the valley, it probably did drop below -10º. If anyone does have a lower reading from downtown Groton, I would be very interested in it, so please leave a comment!<br /></p> <p>For comparison to previous years, we have to look at Syracuse, since climate data from the NWS is only available for Syracuse and Binghamton. You may be interested to know that the -13º was the <b>lowest temperature in the past few years.</b> The lowest temperatures for the past few years in Syracuse are as follows:<br /></p><ul><br /><li>2010: -9º<br /></li><li>2009: -2º<br /></li><li>2008: -4º<br /></li><li>2007: -9º<br /></li></ul> <p>Data from before 2007 was not available on the <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=bgm">National Weather Service's Climate site</a> for Syracuse. I <i>can</i>, however, tell you that the -13º is no where near the record low for Syracuse since observations began at the airport in 1971. That record belongs to February 1979, when it was -26º.</p>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-75265005218386437602011-01-21T11:05:00.001-05:002011-01-21T11:07:10.476-05:00Winter's Fury Unleashed<span style="font-style: italic;">As posted by Drew Montreuil on Syracuse.com, 1/21/11</span><br /><p>Old Man Winter sure is angry these days, and we will not be escaping his wrath over the next week or so. The first fits of his anger are already being felt across much of the northern half of the country. Yet another Nor'easter is striking parts of New England. This storm brought us 3-6" of snow overnight, but parts of Maine will see over a foot.<br /><br />In the Midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an 'Extreme Cold Warning' for parts of Minnesota last night. The Extreme Cold Warning is a new warning the NWS is trying out for temperatures lower than -40º. The warning surely verified, as temperatures this morning in International Falls, Minnesota got down to a <b>mind-numbing -46º</b>. Even Rochester, Minnesota, in the southern part of the state, dropped to -20º. </p> <p>Some of the cold is on the way for us, but Old Man Winter has another shot to throw at us first: another bout of heavy lake effect snow. Schools across northern Cayuga, northern Onondaga and Oswego counties are dismissing early in anticipation of the lake effect blitz.</p> <p>A huge contributor to heavy lake effect snow in a set-up like today's is whether or not moisture from the Upper Great Lakes is able to feed the Lake Ontario band. Observations from Canada this morning are indicating that the connection is being made, which only will increase the chances of heavy snow.</p> <p>The lake effect will start up this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning before only gradually weakening and moving northward tomorrow. Some areas across Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga counties could see <b>upwards of 2 feet</b> by late tomorrow morning.</p> <p>If that was not bad enough, the cold temperatures and winds will bring wind chills down to potentially dangerous levels late this afternoon and tonight. Even those not impacted by the lake effect will want to make sure they are properly bundled up against the cold.</p> <p>This is all just the beginning though, and the next assault from Winter's War comes in Sunday and Monday. The bitter cold air mass that was over Minnesota this morning will work its way over us later this weekend. </p> <p>High temperatures Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach 10º, and Sunday night will be the coldest night we have seen in a few years. Many areas across Central New York will see the mercury drop to -10º, and some of the <b>outlying areas may even see -20º</b>.</p> <p>And now, could a grand finale to Old Man Winter's assault be in the works? The latest long range weather models are showing hints of another coastal storm in the works for the middle of next week. If the current model projections hold true, Central New York could be looking at its biggest widespread snow of the season so far. While it is way too early to tell whether or not that will come to pass, it will need to be watched as we head into next week.</p> <p>On the bright side...at least its not -46º!</p>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-88240271695579804782011-01-18T14:04:00.001-05:002011-01-18T14:06:10.814-05:00Sleet & Freezing Rain- What's the Difference?<p><span style="font-style: italic;">As posted on Syracuse.com by Drew Montreuil, 1/18/11</span><br /></p><p>With icy conditions impacting Central New York this morning, meteorologists have been tossing around words such as "sleet" and "freezing rain", but what are the differences between these icy precipitation types? </p> <p>For my Honor's Program thesis at SUNY Oswego, I have been investigating how the general public interprets weather forecasts, and what terminology is and is not understood. One of the survey questions I used to gather this data directly relates to today's weather. </p> <p>When asked what is the difference between sleet and freezing rain, my preliminary results show that <b>only 16% correctly understand the difference</b>. If you do not know the difference, do not feel bad- only a little over half of the meteorology majors I surveyed fully understood the difference!</p> <p>So, just what is the difference? <i>When</i> the water freezes. Sleet typically starts out as a snowflake while it is in the cloud. As it begins to fall, it melts into a rain drop. However, the melting is brief and, <b>before striking the ground, it refreezes.</b> Thus, sleet is simply falling ice pellets.</p> <p>Freezing rain, on the other hand, does not fall as ice. Like sleet, freezing rain often starts off as a snowflake in the cloud, and then melts as it begins to fall. The difference here is that there is enough warm air in the atmosphere to prevent the rain drop from freezing on its way to the ground. When the rain drop does reach the ground, it freezes, typically within seconds of contact. There is one important condition for this to happen though: the air temperature at the ground must be below freezing.</p> <p>While both sleet and freezing rain can cause slippery roads, it is the freezing rain that is typically more hazardous. Since sleet is already frozen when it falls, it can be plowed and shoveled with relative ease. The freezing rain forms a coating of ice on roads, cars and power lines, making it much more difficult to remove. A few inches of sleet is not a huge deal, but even just half an inch of freezing rain can bring down trees and power lines and create a very dangerous ice storm.</p>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-7021995112862035232010-10-28T21:22:00.004-04:002010-10-28T21:35:58.465-04:00Waterspouts in Oswego!One of the major draws to SUNY Oswego for meteorology majors (besides the epic snow) is the waterspouts that occur every fall over Lake Ontario. For those that are not familiar with waterspouts, they are similar to weak tornadoes over water. They are caused in part by the stark differences between the warm lake waters and cold air over top, hence why they occur mostly in the fall.<br /><br />As the 4th and final fall of my time at Oswego began to draw to a close...I had begun to relent to the fact that waterspout season was ending and, in all four of my years, I had not yet seen one. I have had many close calls, but they are typically short lived and difficult to spot. However, today, my patience finally paid off and I was treated to a total of three waterspouts!<br /><br />And, the number one rule of a meteorologist is to ALWAYS have your camera on hand. And so, thanks to that rule, here are some pictures of the waterspouts I witnessed at long last! Enjoy!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW7sUm1q0hCX5jfCpJkx6kv_bnBbQrXZKAFQH5dx84fsh4L_5sWj4zYRRFgMj-I7FB2Uzpk0ecWWAlZD3qQH6gPxRBlcugbOrjpHB8L2S6cXDDKsdq3H5_Xx1YiT4r6MGvGKvd/s1600/P1080350.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 240px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW7sUm1q0hCX5jfCpJkx6kv_bnBbQrXZKAFQH5dx84fsh4L_5sWj4zYRRFgMj-I7FB2Uzpk0ecWWAlZD3qQH6gPxRBlcugbOrjpHB8L2S6cXDDKsdq3H5_Xx1YiT4r6MGvGKvd/s320/P1080350.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5533274282635012674" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXjUc4p9eicOsNpYxJZaKEvhSySZPRSSEKjHZlQ5dNjI6VR8OSjiKkqmTkLoitTupDvXIfF-FRQ-R1T6WRW_Pn-WdHqrV3ZGirxaKB4qZARhyTGQiKhVr_5ejCbkEHao4pCWjy/s1600/P1080363.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXjUc4p9eicOsNpYxJZaKEvhSySZPRSSEKjHZlQ5dNjI6VR8OSjiKkqmTkLoitTupDvXIfF-FRQ-R1T6WRW_Pn-WdHqrV3ZGirxaKB4qZARhyTGQiKhVr_5ejCbkEHao4pCWjy/s320/P1080363.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5533274284008815922" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiBIL800Gy2HTh1sO2tV-Q4987aWuTsVMxRoDEZ28Byuhf3W3_TSWEPma816D89EoyohYGXU1v-V1-QkV53kJiayrKrT7Cb87HAYOubLbMUip69Y6TSYUN0I479U7_EdMcKIR8/s1600/P1080372.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiBIL800Gy2HTh1sO2tV-Q4987aWuTsVMxRoDEZ28Byuhf3W3_TSWEPma816D89EoyohYGXU1v-V1-QkV53kJiayrKrT7Cb87HAYOubLbMUip69Y6TSYUN0I479U7_EdMcKIR8/s320/P1080372.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5533274292900737186" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6-yN1RFHmLD6nZ8hXwB1QZdluBDdjl4UqRFXrkMsK4GM2496OcYyWozoMZvenzKSr75TFF-jqKesjovmEMrP4dKpPh_XtfV00gTf2BkukRyc3qPst8lopXP3XT35Asc4azTUn/s1600/P1080367.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6-yN1RFHmLD6nZ8hXwB1QZdluBDdjl4UqRFXrkMsK4GM2496OcYyWozoMZvenzKSr75TFF-jqKesjovmEMrP4dKpPh_XtfV00gTf2BkukRyc3qPst8lopXP3XT35Asc4azTUn/s320/P1080367.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5533274301374476210" border="0" /></a><br />It may not look like the previous pictures'<br />waterspouts were touching the water. However,<br />this picture, in the middle, shows the "spray<br />ring" beneath the funnels. Even though invisible,<br />the circulation of these waterspouts most<br />certainly extended from cloud to water.<br />Even with the 24x zoom on my camera, it is<br />still difficult to see the spray. Look right above<br />the water, just slight right of center.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHTLTz_bv0KftzKOL163glLAK6tQNDBrFOYGh4Ir7AAGw4wvM_RKNHLw5OJKviO5oWX6s5X9uAB5eJrRZHK-LP8jRH-hU51O0igVkrt6EzzxKzesexFH4WgWUqkF9BHulvqvoX/s1600/P1080378.JPG"><img style="cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHTLTz_bv0KftzKOL163glLAK6tQNDBrFOYGh4Ir7AAGw4wvM_RKNHLw5OJKviO5oWX6s5X9uAB5eJrRZHK-LP8jRH-hU51O0igVkrt6EzzxKzesexFH4WgWUqkF9BHulvqvoX/s320/P1080378.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5533274312509235170" border="0" /></a><br />This was the last funnel I saw, and the hardest<br />to see/photograph. The lighter gray area in the<br />top center is the funnel. This one only lasted a<br />couple minutes and was much closer to shore<br />than the other two.Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-62924182601992425702010-09-30T20:22:00.003-04:002010-09-30T21:41:29.713-04:00Major Flooding Reported<span style="font-weight: bold;">9:45PM UPDATE:</span> The rain in Pennsylvania has still not turned east and is making me very nervous. The rain is as far north as I-80 in Central Pennsylvania. I unfortunately will not be able to update again until after after 12:30am. I will post a quick update at the time though.<br /><br />The back edge of the rain shield is beginning to move through the Grotonweather tri-county area and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. Rainfall totals are over 3" over most of the area, and radar estimates max out at 4-5" over southern Cortland County. In all honesty though, it appears the radar is under estimating the precipitation, so I would not be surprised if places like Marathon got even more.<br /><br />As I have been saying, if these rainfall amounts occurred in our area, the ground would not be able to handle it. Unfortunately, that prediction has come true. Here are a couple of the flooding reports I have heard so far, all from Cortland County:<br /><ul><li style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN CORTLAND COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE</li><li> Route 11 between Reagen Road and Hoxie Gorge Road is CLOSED due to a mudslide</li><li>Other mudslides have also been reported</li><li>In Homer: The Haights Gulf Bridge is out.</li><li>In McGraw: Roads <span style="font-weight: bold;">IMPASSABLE</span> throughout the village</li><li>Red Cross Shelter for evacuees in the gymnasium at the County Office Building</li></ul>I have not heard of any flood reports in Tompkins or Cayuga Counties, but that does not mean it is not occurring. I cannot stress enough, <span style="font-weight: bold;">never drive through flooded roadways!!</span> There are roads underwater in the area. DO NOT attempt to cross the flood waters. Doing so may put your life in jeopardy. If you are told to evacuate your home, do so!<br /><br />As I stated at the start, the rain is ending. However, this does <span style="font-weight: bold;">not</span> mean the flood threat is ending! Runoff will continue to create flood problems into tomorrow. Area rivers are not expected to reach their peak heights until about this time Friday.<br /><br />There may be some additional rain tonight. What is left of Tropical Storm Nicole is moving up through North Carolina and Virginia currently. The models have consistently kept this rain off to our east tonight. However, the fact that the models were too far east with today's storm, and the fact that the radar from that region looks very much like it did last night (namely a large area of rain seemingly heading right at us) has me a little nervous. I should stress, though, that we are not in the same sort of set up now, and, thankfully, I do see indications in the upper atmosphere that this rain will turn to our east, as the models indicate. If the models were wrong, which I do not think they are, and we were to get another couple inches of rain tonight, it would be disastrous. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Again, I do not think this will be the case.</span><br /><br />In summary...the rain may be ending, but the flooding will continue into tomorrow. <span style="font-style: italic;">Stay safe!!!!</span>Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-73606625529759231552010-09-30T15:26:00.006-04:002010-09-30T16:41:28.006-04:00Heavy Rain Update: 4PM<span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(153, 0, 0);">4:40PM UPDATE:</span> FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR S.CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 7:15 PM.<br /><br />Very heavy rain has been falling across the area and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. The regional radar loop is showing the rain tapering a bit to just showers, but not until far Southern Pennsylvania. Even then, there is still some heavy rain...just not as widespread. We very well may only be about half way through this event, and already rainfall totals are getting quite high. Take a look at some of these reports:<br /><br />Game Farm Road Climate Station, Ithaca: 1.36" through 3PM<br />Freeville: 1.41" through 3:42 PM<br />Virgil: 1.54" through 3:42PM<br />Binghamton Airport: 1.36" through 3PM<br />Deposit, NY (Deleware County): 2.99" between 7AM-1:22PM<br /><br />If we double these amounts, most places will be up around 3-4", as expected. There are no flood warnings in the Grotonweather.com forecast area, but most of the counties to our south, east and north are under flood warnings. Most of these flood warnings are for larger rivers in anticipation of this additional rain. No flash flood warnings are in effect yet.<br /><br />There are actually some more intense areas of rain and wind within the main area of heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for Broome County a little while ago! I changed the scaling on the radar program I use to make these areas stick out. The brighter the color, the heavier the rain. <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhytRRal50Q3lCtnmM8Rjtv7k3I8V3hC18YLgUZYznWUtWIGC6l89Sq_buxaBZCiJ012_eifpY7hTo3XExbPWv6uAChTFv8qnW2P4Ye1BQerFIrxCwvxcki-bVqt3FBBqC2sDVF/s1600/9_30_10_KBGM_modified.png"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 315px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhytRRal50Q3lCtnmM8Rjtv7k3I8V3hC18YLgUZYznWUtWIGC6l89Sq_buxaBZCiJ012_eifpY7hTo3XExbPWv6uAChTFv8qnW2P4Ye1BQerFIrxCwvxcki-bVqt3FBBqC2sDVF/s320/9_30_10_KBGM_modified.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5522794068671388722" border="0" /></a>The heaviest rain seems to be concentrated over the Finger Lakes, with some of those heavier cells moving through Cayuga and Cortland Counties, as indicated by the dark reds and pinks. It is where these cells hit that the greatest chance for rainfall totals over 4" will occur.<br /><br />As we go into the evening hours, I am anticipating starting to see some flash flooding problems as we start to approach the upper limits of what the ground and streams can handle. I will get the word out about any Flash Flood Warnings as soon as possible. Remember, NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! If you come to a roadway, turn around. There is no telling just how deep the water is. Just 6" of quick moving water can sweep a car away! It is especially dangerous at night, when it is even harder to see flood waters. Anytime you get rainfall of this magnitude in such a short (about 12-18 hours) time span, the runoff can produce dangerous conditions. Please stay safe tonight, and stay tuned to Grotonweather.com for the latest! Do not forget to visit the chat room by clicking the "Open Chat" icon to the right. The Chat will be open through the early evening. Furthermore, make sure you tune in for tomorrow's podcast as we talk about this event!<br /><br />Note: One of the quickest ways to get updates from Grotonweather.com is on our facebook page! Become a fan now by <a href="http://www.facebook.com/#%21/pages/Grotonweathercom/121612807317?ref=ts">clicking here</a>!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-87085779925558709262010-07-21T15:44:00.008-04:002010-07-21T18:52:58.553-04:00Are we done YET?<span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">6:45 PM Update: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the very southern most portions of Tompkins and Cortland counties, but the storm is pretty much south of the county lines. Looking upstream, the more impressive thunderstorms should pass well to our west and east as the cold front begins to press through. As a result, I think we are pretty much done with severe weather here in the Grotonweather forecast area. There will likely be a shower or two...maybe even a light thunderstorm...over the next few hours...but the biggest hazard from here on out through tomorrow morning should be some areas of dense fog.<br /><br />5PM Update: The storms over Ontario County have struggled to organize and are falling apart into just showers.<br /><br />UPDATE 4:30PM:</span><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> As I suspected (but a bit quicker I must admit), a healthy looking cell has broken off the lake breeze and is holding itself together nicely over Ontario County with some new development along its southern flank. If it keeps holding together, it should reach Cayuga Lake about 5:15-5:30 before heading into the Grotonweather forecast area between 5:30 and 7pm.</span><br /><br />Original 4PM post: The Grotonweather forecast area has been hit hard twice today, with only the northern portions of Cortland County missing out on the active weather (but not by much, as southern Onondaga County has been hammered too!) Numerous severe weather reports have come out of the area, the most notable being trees and powerlines down in Lansing early this afternoon and a recorded wind gust of 55mph in Locke, 1.25" hail in Dryden and 1" hail in Cortland with the second round of storms.<br /><br />So...are we done yet? For a little while at least. What has been happening is lake breeze fronts from Lake Erie and Ontario have been triggering storms between Rochester and Buffalo. These storms have been sitting and redeveloping over the same area for hours. As the individual cells move away from the lake breeze, they have been tracking southeast across the Finger Lakes, right into our neck of the woods. the last big storm that went through our area stabilized the atmosphere a good deal, and so as the cells break off of the lake breeze, they have started to quickly die out. I tend to doubt this will remain the case though. The sun is out and already working to destabilize the area once again. Eventually, I believe that another storm will have enough fuel to head down towards us once again, probably in the 1-3 hour time frame. After that, the lake breeze will start to die out. However, the cold front still has to come through and encounter a still unstable airmass across Western New York. more storms may fire up along that as it moves east...especially if it does so while the lake breeze is still adding extra lift to the atmosphere.<br /><br />Bottom line: we may not be done yet...so stay tuned!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36017111.post-46348030877002197122010-07-21T12:59:00.006-04:002010-07-21T14:10:48.284-04:001PM Severe Weather Update2PM Update: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR S. CAYUGA COUNTY UNTIL 2:45 pm. A severe storm over Ontario county will move into S. Cayuga county over the next 30-60 minutes. I expect the warning to be extended/overlapped as the storm moves into the area. If the storm remains severe (and there is not really any reason for it not to), Groton, Homer and Cortland will have to watch out for this storm between 3-4 pm. Interesting note: All of the Grotonweather forecast area but extreme northeast Tompkins and northern Cortland Counties have been under severe thunderstorm warnings at some point today already! And our watch goes for 6 more hours.<br /><br />Original 1PM post: Lots going on this afternoon already. A severe storm tore through central Tompkins county last hour. It is looking a bit less organized as it moves into S. Cortland county. I was in Ithaca, on the 11th floor of Bradfield Hall, Cornell as the storm passed. There was rotation with it, and I got some awesome pictures I will post tonight. The storm produced 1" hail in Trumansburg and took out "many" trees and powerlines in Lansing. No other reports yet (as of 1PM).<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnZno5ZBQTEC-RipVwNQaptK_g9zUVKHzTD7cccvi132og5B6E6qPue6qzVzuRE1YlZM3hEPljyVRRJVHgde1QCfykB9lBPj8J2tH5w6wpWlQICzSGLVpjViXQxA_ycZ0n-R2G/s1600/day1otlk_1630.gif"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 224px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnZno5ZBQTEC-RipVwNQaptK_g9zUVKHzTD7cccvi132og5B6E6qPue6qzVzuRE1YlZM3hEPljyVRRJVHgde1QCfykB9lBPj8J2tH5w6wpWlQICzSGLVpjViXQxA_ycZ0n-R2G/s320/day1otlk_1630.gif" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5496406361978452242" border="0" /></a>While all this was going on, the SPC moved us into a moderate risk. This is primarily for the threat of damaging winds. Now, we've already experienced severe weather...but is more on the way? Our watch goes until 8pm, afterall. The answer is yes, our threat still continues. There are more showers and storms forming over western New York back into Canada. The cold front itself stretches from Ontario back into Ohio and Indiana. The air just upstream is very unstable, and the storms we've already had shouldn't have much of an effect on our instability for the middle or latter part of the afternoon.<br /><br />If you haven't <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Grotonweathercom/121612807317?ref=ts#%21/pages/Grotonweathercom/121612807317">become a fan of Grotonweather on facebook</a> or a <a href="http://twitter.com/GrotonWeather">follower on Twitter</a>, you will want to do so now! I've been posting up a storm (pun intended) on those two sites all morning with the latest updates and will continue to do so through the day. Also, the Grotonweather Toolbar is a great way to keep your eye on the latest forecast. <a href="http://grotonweather.ourtoolbar.com/">Download it here</a>. And, as always, the main site/blog will be updated throughout the day to keep you safe!<br /><br />That's all for now. Keep checking back!Grotonweatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06258039483666624338noreply@blogger.com0