Groton Weather Blog

Arctic Outbreak?

2011-12-29T12:36:00.000-05:00

We all knew it was probably only a matter of time before the weather finally turned more winter like. We got a taste of winter yesterday with some lake effect snow, strong winds, and temperatures in the 20s. While we have been warm lately, 500 miles to the north has been frigid. The chill yesterday and, to some extent, today, is just a small piece of that cold pool.

A much bigger piece will be breaking off next week. It will easily be the coldest air so far this season, with highs Tuesday and probably Wednesday staying in the teens. There will be wind. There will be snow. But will this be an 'arctic outbreak'?

There is no set definition for an arctic outbreak, so the use of the term is up to the discretion of the forecaster. It seems to me, however, that 'arctic outbreak' should be a term reserved for record setting or dangerous cold. It is a strong term that grabs people's attention. I do not think it should be overused.

Does the combination of high temperatures in the teens, gusty winds and lake effect snow meet these qualifications? I am honestly on the fence.

On the one hand, it seems to me that highs in the teens are not all that impressive, given our climatology and the time of the year. Some lake effect snow and wind? That is just normal winter weather here.

Yet, on the other hand, this has not been a typical winter. We have only one high temperature under 30º (on the 24th...the high yesterday was actually 40, albeit that was at midnight). Snow has been scarce to non-existent. Being suddenly thrust into mid-winter weather may catch some off guard and create dangerous conditions.

In the end though, I think I would hesitate to use the words 'arctic outbreak' in my forecasts for the coming cold snap. I believe that the public should be aware that the pattern is changing and, at least for a few days, winter will be here in full.

But I do not want to sensationalize things and blow them out of proportion. This event, after all, is still nearly a week away. I've seen many extreme temperature events forecast this far out, only to have the models gradually and consistently modify temperatures back towards more normal temperatures.

I want to hear what you think though. Join the discussion and post what your definition of an arctic outbreak would be on Facebook by clicking here.

Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

2011-09-07T18:11:00.000-04:00

7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

Growing Flood Concern

2011-09-07T14:24:00.001-04:00

4:30PM Update-

Everything is progressing as I feared and a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Tompkins and southern Cayuga Counties. The ENTIRE Grotonweather forecast area is now under FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. This is going to be a long night for our area.

Wednesday- 2:15PM

So far, the Grotonweather.com tri-county area has more or less been spared of major problems, at least that I am aware of. Our neighbors to the south and east in Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties have not been as fortunate. Massive and widespread flooding has prompted Flash Flood EMERGENCIES for all three counties, with a State of Emergency also in effect for Broome County. Many roads are under water and bridges are in danger of washing out. This is a very dangerous and deadly situation in these areas. Under no circumstances should you be traveling to those areas tonight.

Here is what is really worrying me though...our luck could soon run out. In the image below, you can see a band of very heavy rain moving north through Pennsylvania right towards our area, which is outlined in red. The heavy rain to our east will continue to move to the northeast.

This band of rain extends all the way down past Washington DC and seems to only be increasing in size and intensity. If the flooding that is occurring to our south and east is any indication what a couple more inches of rain will do, our area may be in trouble.

I urge everyone to be extra vigilant this afternoon, evening and overnight. This is one of the most dangerous situations in Grotonweather history, if not for our immediate area, then for our neighbors directly nearby. DO NOT drive or walk in flood waters. If the water is flowing, chances are that you will need to be rescued. If you are told to evacuate, do so. In fact, if you live near a stream that is already full or near...be prepared to leave on a moment's notice. The time to prepare is now.

Please share this post with your friends and family.

Was Irene Really a Bust?

2011-08-30T08:07:00.006-04:00

In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"

If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.

The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?

If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.

As of this writing, 2.5 million homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. Homes have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for over 150 years. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?

And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.

The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.

Down Time

2011-06-26T11:50:00.002-04:00

Just a quick administrative note:

Each summer, I take a couple weeks off from intensive forecasting. This gives me a chance to do some other projects, recharge, and, usually, get some new ideas. As such, this summer I will not be updating the website from June 29 (Wednesday) through July 16th (or so).

Grotonweather.com will not be devoid of updated weather information though! Traditionally, I have many links and graphics from the National Weather Service and other trustworthy weather sources that have up-to-date information. My tropical weather page also automatically updates with information on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may form. I do this so that you can continue to be safe and informed, even while the site is not fully operating.

I thank you all for your continued support and understanding!

The Grotonweather.com Name...

2011-06-13T17:46:00.003-04:00

I believe a bit of an administrative post is in order to follow up on the poll I had on my website over the weekend about the future name of Grotonweather.com.

First off, I would like to thank everyone who took time to take the survey. The information you gave me was a HUGE help in deciding my future course of action! I had a very good turnout on this survey, and there were some surprising results.

The overwhelming majority of you, it seems, really like the name 'grotonweather.com' and did NOT want to see it changed. This is not the results I expected and, in all honesty, I was not sure what to do for a bit. However, it is with great pleasure that I announce to you now that the grotonweather.com name will NOT be changing!

Now, the whole reason for wanting to change names in the first place was to, over the course of the next few years, grow this operation into something even larger. That is by all means still in the works, and I made a couple purchases just before making this post as the first steps in this plan. Details likely will not be coming out on this until the fall...or later...but I wanted to assure you all once more that there are no plans to get rid of the current site or current name.

Thank you all once again for your support and feedback! It is very much appreciated!

No Alert Mode this time...

2011-06-09T12:18:00.003-04:00

A potentially significant severe weather outbreak across much of the northeast, including our area is beginning. However, Grotonweather.com will NOT be going into alert mode for this event. As I mentioned in the Alert Mode blog, I take the issuing of Alert Mode very seriously. I only issue them when it seems like widespread, life threatening weather is likely.

Today's event is very close to that criteria, and I cannot say for sure that I will not issue Alert Mode status later in the day. At this point though, I do not think the storms will organize quite fast enough to bring the high risks necessary for an Alert Mode. If this site was for Chenango, Monroe and Otsego counties, I very likely would be going into Alert Mode. The worst of this event, in terms of spatial coverage and intensity, will likely be just to our east.

That being said, storms are already starting to develop in our area and just to the west. These storms will not take long to become severe, and our threats for wind damage and hail remain at a 'MODERATE' level. Winds up to 80mph and two inch hail are not totally out of the question. Stay tuned for updates!

Severe Weather Awareness Week

2011-05-02T10:58:00.007-04:00

This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week. In light of the recent severe and tornadic thunderstorms, I think its very important that we realize that dangerous and deadly weather can and does occur in our area. The first step to keeping yourself safe is education. I will be updating this blog each day with links to the National Weather Service pages for each day of Severe Weather Awareness Week.

Monday- Overview
Tuesday- Severe Thunderstorms
Wednesday- Severe Weather Preparedness
Thursday- Tornado Watches & Warnings
Friday- Flood Preparedness
Saturday- Communication of Hazardous Weather Information

Monday's Historic Thunderstorms

2011-04-06T10:47:00.004-04:00

Story originally published on Syracuse.com by Drew Montreuil.

I wanted to take a couple moments and point out some pretty amazing things that happened Monday across the eastern half of the nation. A huge severe weather outbreak blasted across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the southeast. Severe weather was reported from Texas to Florida, northward into Pennsylvania. Even here in Central New York, we had a few strong thunderstorms. Three-quarter inch hail was reported Monday morning near Ithaca and in Norwich. Hail must measure one inch in diameter before it is considered "severe".

While the National Weather Service continues to do surveys of the damage, the number of reports will continue to increase. But here are some numbers that are just mind blowing:

As of 10AM Wednesday, there were 1377 total reports of wind damage, 1"+ hail or tornadoes from Monday. Since 2000, there has not been a single day with this many severe weather reports. Of the nearly 1400 reports, 1245 were damaging wind reports. The squall line responsible for this outbreak did not stop producing severe weather because it died; it simply moved off shore over the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, there were a number of fatalities associated with these storms as tornadoes destroyed homes and trees were downed onto houses. The image above, from the Storm Prediction Center, shows the severe weather reports from Monday's historic outbreak. Blue dots represent wind damage, while red dots are tornado reports and green dots are hail an inch in diameter or greater. Click the image for a larger view.

More spring-like weather will be on the way for the East, including Central New York. Another powerful storm system will form over the Great Plains this weekend and head up into Canada. A cold front will blast across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, with more severe weather possible. Currently the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting areas from Minnesota and Wisconsin south to Texas and Louisiana and eastward to Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee as the highest potential for severe weather. As we get closer to the weekend though, I would not be surprised to see that threat shifted further to the east. Whether or not we get into the thunderstorms once more is still a bit questionable, but at the very least, our temperatures will shoot into the 60s, maybe even near 70 Sunday and Monday.

Spring 2011 Survey

2011-03-27T17:39:00.002-04:00

Every year or so, I do a survey on Grotonweather.com. These surveys are extremely useful to me! They help me gauge how I am doing, what I can do better, what new features to add, and what old features should be removed along with other information. I never allow my surveys to go over 10 questions long so that I can keep it short and simple for you.

I would greatly appreciate it if you took a couple minutes and filled out the Spring 2011 Survey. Thank you very much for your time!

CLICK HERE TO TAKE THE SURVEY

What does an "Alert Mode" mean?

2011-03-09T22:51:00.004-05:00

Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into "Alert Mode" for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.

The Alert Mode is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode threatens lives and property. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to highlight the potential dangers.

Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:

First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be above and beyond the "average" bad weather situation.

Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into Standby to raise awareness of the potential for devastating weather.

When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on Facebook and/or Twitter for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our Facebook and Twitter pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps.

The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help prevent that from ever becoming a reality. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "keep checking back for updates!"

2/24 PM Forecast Discussion

2011-02-24T18:54:00.003-05:00

My apologies for having to post this here. The SUNY Oswego campus network has somehow decided to block all Grotonweather.com traffic from its network. I have managed to update most of the forecast as normal, but things such as the confidence forecast and uploading snow maps are impossible. Hopefully this will be fixed soon....in the mean time, we have a snow storm on our hands!

Forecast Discussion
A rapidly strengthening storm system over Arkansas will lift north and east, crossing across Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. The models are more or less in agreement with one another now, and they all keep the warm air and rain to the south. Despite this, I am still a tiny bit weary of the possibility of rain for Tompkins and southern Cortland County, as the rain/snow line will only be 30-50 miles to the south. I do have enough confidence to go with all snow now though. As I said this morning, since this storm is probably going to end up all snow, we are going to get it good. Below the discussion is the snow map I made for this storm. Most of the Grotonweather.com area is in the 7-14" range. Honestly though, I would not be at all surprised to see 16" or even 18" somewhere in that pink area. The snow will move in after midnight tonight and really become heavy for the morning hours tomorrow. By afternoon, the snow should begin to taper off. However, the winds will be on the increase, blowing all that fresh snow around. Significant blowing and drifting is likely tomorrow. I would likely be going into SNOW ALERT MODE if I had access to my files. Saturday and Sunday will each feature a shot at a few flurries, but nothing significant. Another storm will be in the works for Monday, but this one should remain all rain with the low tracking well to our west.

Storm total snowfall through Friday evening.

The Hype Machine

2011-02-02T10:23:00.001-05:00

My good friend, classmate and colleague Evan Duffey posted a wonderful piece on Syracuse.com this morning. He has given me permission to repost it here. There are a lot of excellent points he makes about how big storms get blown way out of proportion through hear-say and media hype. Take a look:

Storm under-performs, public and media hype make it worse

For those of you wondering why you children's classes were canceled, or what happened to the 18"+ of snow you were expecting because your neighbors told you it would happen, I have your answer. The storm grew to massive size and intensity - in a special place I call overexcited media and populace. The storm, while no pushover, is not that epic, and should never have been treated as so.

In talking to fellow Meteorologist and Syracuse.com blogger Andrew Montreuil, he agrees he is upset at how this storm got hyped up.

While the storm will probably leave a decent impact on the area, talk of 18", 2 feet, etc. have been floating around either word of mouth or the internet. My max total event given during the entire even was 14".

Which brings me to a point I would like to bring up. A MAX snowfall accumulation is not what we expect, it's more then what we expect. When a meteorologist puts up a snowfall range, even I put a little extra on that top number just in case the unexpected occurs. Sadly the public takes this number as what they are going to get. For all of you interested in weather, try to remember this when reading forecasts and discussions.

Now to the meat - why did this storm under-perform even Meteorologists predictions for a storm? I hinted at the reason in a comment I made a few days ago, in my first post about the storm. I said "I think the upper limits of snowfall are possible only if warm, dry air doesn't work its way in too far North." This is pretty much what happened.

Radar overnight revealed a large dry slot was working into the storm. Dry-slots are almost always destructive to storms, taking away some of their thermodynamic strength, and obviously precipitation is hard pressed to be found in an area called a dry slot.

Blogger Drew Montreuil was involved in a Q&A session recently, and one of them really brings to light a lot about the forecast and expectations. Here is the quote:

...just in my day today I have overhead people talking about how we are supposed to get 2 feet of snow and such. These are over exaggerations. Often times, forecasts for big storms seem to take a life of their own. People mishear or misread things and, like a massive game of telephone, things get blown out of proportion. Another common mistake I see all the time is people assuming the high end of a snow prediction will be what happens. If there is a forecast for 6-12", but only 5" falls....it really is a decent forecast. But the hype before hand makes it seem like a bust.

To answer the question directly...I could see this "busting" slightly, yes. There are some indications drier air may work in quicker than what was earlier thought. This could bring the snow to an end a bit quicker, and keep us more in the 4-7" range instead of 6-10". Its a developing situation, and one can never be too sure they have the forecast nailed until the event actually happens...

Hopefully your day isn't too upset by the hype and over forecast of this winter storm, and please don't blame meteorologists. We aren't all that wrong.

Just how low did it go?

2011-01-26T10:28:00.008-05:00

Original post appeared on Syracuse.com on 1/26/11; posted by Drew Montreuil. This version is edited.

You certainly do not need a meteorologist to tell you that the cold was bone-chilling Monday morning. However, you might be interested to know how cold it actually got across Central New York.

Click the map for a bigger view!

I put together a map of reported low temperatures from around Central New York. Most of these low temperatures were reported to the National Weather Service through co-op spotters. Some of the other readings were recorded on personal weather stations that upload data onto The Weather Underground.

As you can see, the temperatures can vary greatly over a short distance depending on a number of factors, including elevation, proximity to water and urban vs rural settings. A great example of this is Groton's reported -8º. This temperature was taken at a high elevation somewhat near the Elementary School. On cold nights, the coldest air settles in the valleys. Therefore, I would not be surprised if someone sees the map and thinks: "But I saw the bank thermometer Monday morning say -15º!" Down in the valley, it probably did drop below -10º. If anyone does have a lower reading from downtown Groton, I would be very interested in it, so please leave a comment!

For comparison to previous years, we have to look at Syracuse, since climate data from the NWS is only available for Syracuse and Binghamton. You may be interested to know that the -13º was the lowest temperature in the past few years. The lowest temperatures for the past few years in Syracuse are as follows:

2010: -9º
2009: -2º
2008: -4º
2007: -9º

Data from before 2007 was not available on the National Weather Service's Climate site for Syracuse. I can, however, tell you that the -13º is no where near the record low for Syracuse since observations began at the airport in 1971. That record belongs to February 1979, when it was -26º.

Winter's Fury Unleashed

2011-01-21T11:05:00.001-05:00

As posted by Drew Montreuil on Syracuse.com, 1/21/11

Old Man Winter sure is angry these days, and we will not be escaping his wrath over the next week or so. The first fits of his anger are already being felt across much of the northern half of the country. Yet another Nor'easter is striking parts of New England. This storm brought us 3-6" of snow overnight, but parts of Maine will see over a foot.

In the Midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an 'Extreme Cold Warning' for parts of Minnesota last night. The Extreme Cold Warning is a new warning the NWS is trying out for temperatures lower than -40º. The warning surely verified, as temperatures this morning in International Falls, Minnesota got down to a mind-numbing -46º. Even Rochester, Minnesota, in the southern part of the state, dropped to -20º.

Some of the cold is on the way for us, but Old Man Winter has another shot to throw at us first: another bout of heavy lake effect snow. Schools across northern Cayuga, northern Onondaga and Oswego counties are dismissing early in anticipation of the lake effect blitz.

A huge contributor to heavy lake effect snow in a set-up like today's is whether or not moisture from the Upper Great Lakes is able to feed the Lake Ontario band. Observations from Canada this morning are indicating that the connection is being made, which only will increase the chances of heavy snow.

The lake effect will start up this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning before only gradually weakening and moving northward tomorrow. Some areas across Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga counties could see upwards of 2 feet by late tomorrow morning.

If that was not bad enough, the cold temperatures and winds will bring wind chills down to potentially dangerous levels late this afternoon and tonight. Even those not impacted by the lake effect will want to make sure they are properly bundled up against the cold.

This is all just the beginning though, and the next assault from Winter's War comes in Sunday and Monday. The bitter cold air mass that was over Minnesota this morning will work its way over us later this weekend.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach 10º, and Sunday night will be the coldest night we have seen in a few years. Many areas across Central New York will see the mercury drop to -10º, and some of the outlying areas may even see -20º.

And now, could a grand finale to Old Man Winter's assault be in the works? The latest long range weather models are showing hints of another coastal storm in the works for the middle of next week. If the current model projections hold true, Central New York could be looking at its biggest widespread snow of the season so far. While it is way too early to tell whether or not that will come to pass, it will need to be watched as we head into next week.

On the bright side...at least its not -46º!

Sleet & Freezing Rain- What's the Difference?

2011-01-18T14:04:00.001-05:00

As posted on Syracuse.com by Drew Montreuil, 1/18/11

With icy conditions impacting Central New York this morning, meteorologists have been tossing around words such as "sleet" and "freezing rain", but what are the differences between these icy precipitation types?

For my Honor's Program thesis at SUNY Oswego, I have been investigating how the general public interprets weather forecasts, and what terminology is and is not understood. One of the survey questions I used to gather this data directly relates to today's weather.

When asked what is the difference between sleet and freezing rain, my preliminary results show that only 16% correctly understand the difference. If you do not know the difference, do not feel bad- only a little over half of the meteorology majors I surveyed fully understood the difference!

So, just what is the difference? When the water freezes. Sleet typically starts out as a snowflake while it is in the cloud. As it begins to fall, it melts into a rain drop. However, the melting is brief and, before striking the ground, it refreezes. Thus, sleet is simply falling ice pellets.

Freezing rain, on the other hand, does not fall as ice. Like sleet, freezing rain often starts off as a snowflake in the cloud, and then melts as it begins to fall. The difference here is that there is enough warm air in the atmosphere to prevent the rain drop from freezing on its way to the ground. When the rain drop does reach the ground, it freezes, typically within seconds of contact. There is one important condition for this to happen though: the air temperature at the ground must be below freezing.

While both sleet and freezing rain can cause slippery roads, it is the freezing rain that is typically more hazardous. Since sleet is already frozen when it falls, it can be plowed and shoveled with relative ease. The freezing rain forms a coating of ice on roads, cars and power lines, making it much more difficult to remove. A few inches of sleet is not a huge deal, but even just half an inch of freezing rain can bring down trees and power lines and create a very dangerous ice storm.

Waterspouts in Oswego!

2010-10-28T21:22:00.004-04:00

One of the major draws to SUNY Oswego for meteorology majors (besides the epic snow) is the waterspouts that occur every fall over Lake Ontario. For those that are not familiar with waterspouts, they are similar to weak tornadoes over water. They are caused in part by the stark differences between the warm lake waters and cold air over top, hence why they occur mostly in the fall.

As the 4th and final fall of my time at Oswego began to draw to a close...I had begun to relent to the fact that waterspout season was ending and, in all four of my years, I had not yet seen one. I have had many close calls, but they are typically short lived and difficult to spot. However, today, my patience finally paid off and I was treated to a total of three waterspouts!

And, the number one rule of a meteorologist is to ALWAYS have your camera on hand. And so, thanks to that rule, here are some pictures of the waterspouts I witnessed at long last! Enjoy!

It may not look like the previous pictures'
waterspouts were touching the water. However,
this picture, in the middle, shows the "spray
ring" beneath the funnels. Even though invisible,
the circulation of these waterspouts most
certainly extended from cloud to water.
Even with the 24x zoom on my camera, it is
still difficult to see the spray. Look right above
the water, just slight right of center.

This was the last funnel I saw, and the hardest
to see/photograph. The lighter gray area in the
top center is the funnel. This one only lasted a
couple minutes and was much closer to shore
than the other two.

Major Flooding Reported

2010-09-30T20:22:00.003-04:00

9:45PM UPDATE: The rain in Pennsylvania has still not turned east and is making me very nervous. The rain is as far north as I-80 in Central Pennsylvania. I unfortunately will not be able to update again until after after 12:30am. I will post a quick update at the time though.

The back edge of the rain shield is beginning to move through the Grotonweather tri-county area and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. Rainfall totals are over 3" over most of the area, and radar estimates max out at 4-5" over southern Cortland County. In all honesty though, it appears the radar is under estimating the precipitation, so I would not be surprised if places like Marathon got even more.

As I have been saying, if these rainfall amounts occurred in our area, the ground would not be able to handle it. Unfortunately, that prediction has come true. Here are a couple of the flooding reports I have heard so far, all from Cortland County:

NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN CORTLAND COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
Route 11 between Reagen Road and Hoxie Gorge Road is CLOSED due to a mudslide
Other mudslides have also been reported
In Homer: The Haights Gulf Bridge is out.
In McGraw: Roads IMPASSABLE throughout the village
Red Cross Shelter for evacuees in the gymnasium at the County Office Building

I have not heard of any flood reports in Tompkins or Cayuga Counties, but that does not mean it is not occurring. I cannot stress enough, never drive through flooded roadways!! There are roads underwater in the area. DO NOT attempt to cross the flood waters. Doing so may put your life in jeopardy. If you are told to evacuate your home, do so!

As I stated at the start, the rain is ending. However, this does not mean the flood threat is ending! Runoff will continue to create flood problems into tomorrow. Area rivers are not expected to reach their peak heights until about this time Friday.

There may be some additional rain tonight. What is left of Tropical Storm Nicole is moving up through North Carolina and Virginia currently. The models have consistently kept this rain off to our east tonight. However, the fact that the models were too far east with today's storm, and the fact that the radar from that region looks very much like it did last night (namely a large area of rain seemingly heading right at us) has me a little nervous. I should stress, though, that we are not in the same sort of set up now, and, thankfully, I do see indications in the upper atmosphere that this rain will turn to our east, as the models indicate. If the models were wrong, which I do not think they are, and we were to get another couple inches of rain tonight, it would be disastrous. Again, I do not think this will be the case.

In summary...the rain may be ending, but the flooding will continue into tomorrow. Stay safe!!!!

Heavy Rain Update: 4PM

2010-09-30T15:26:00.006-04:00

4:40PM UPDATE: FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR S.CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 7:15 PM.

Very heavy rain has been falling across the area and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. The regional radar loop is showing the rain tapering a bit to just showers, but not until far Southern Pennsylvania. Even then, there is still some heavy rain...just not as widespread. We very well may only be about half way through this event, and already rainfall totals are getting quite high. Take a look at some of these reports:

Game Farm Road Climate Station, Ithaca: 1.36" through 3PM
Freeville: 1.41" through 3:42 PM
Virgil: 1.54" through 3:42PM
Binghamton Airport: 1.36" through 3PM
Deposit, NY (Deleware County): 2.99" between 7AM-1:22PM

If we double these amounts, most places will be up around 3-4", as expected. There are no flood warnings in the Grotonweather.com forecast area, but most of the counties to our south, east and north are under flood warnings. Most of these flood warnings are for larger rivers in anticipation of this additional rain. No flash flood warnings are in effect yet.

There are actually some more intense areas of rain and wind within the main area of heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for Broome County a little while ago! I changed the scaling on the radar program I use to make these areas stick out. The brighter the color, the heavier the rain. The heaviest rain seems to be concentrated over the Finger Lakes, with some of those heavier cells moving through Cayuga and Cortland Counties, as indicated by the dark reds and pinks. It is where these cells hit that the greatest chance for rainfall totals over 4" will occur.

As we go into the evening hours, I am anticipating starting to see some flash flooding problems as we start to approach the upper limits of what the ground and streams can handle. I will get the word out about any Flash Flood Warnings as soon as possible. Remember, NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! If you come to a roadway, turn around. There is no telling just how deep the water is. Just 6" of quick moving water can sweep a car away! It is especially dangerous at night, when it is even harder to see flood waters. Anytime you get rainfall of this magnitude in such a short (about 12-18 hours) time span, the runoff can produce dangerous conditions. Please stay safe tonight, and stay tuned to Grotonweather.com for the latest! Do not forget to visit the chat room by clicking the "Open Chat" icon to the right. The Chat will be open through the early evening. Furthermore, make sure you tune in for tomorrow's podcast as we talk about this event!

Note: One of the quickest ways to get updates from Grotonweather.com is on our facebook page! Become a fan now by clicking here!

Are we done YET?

2010-07-21T15:44:00.008-04:00

6:45 PM Update: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the very southern most portions of Tompkins and Cortland counties, but the storm is pretty much south of the county lines. Looking upstream, the more impressive thunderstorms should pass well to our west and east as the cold front begins to press through. As a result, I think we are pretty much done with severe weather here in the Grotonweather forecast area. There will likely be a shower or two...maybe even a light thunderstorm...over the next few hours...but the biggest hazard from here on out through tomorrow morning should be some areas of dense fog.

5PM Update: The storms over Ontario County have struggled to organize and are falling apart into just showers.

UPDATE 4:30PM: As I suspected (but a bit quicker I must admit), a healthy looking cell has broken off the lake breeze and is holding itself together nicely over Ontario County with some new development along its southern flank. If it keeps holding together, it should reach Cayuga Lake about 5:15-5:30 before heading into the Grotonweather forecast area between 5:30 and 7pm.

Original 4PM post: The Grotonweather forecast area has been hit hard twice today, with only the northern portions of Cortland County missing out on the active weather (but not by much, as southern Onondaga County has been hammered too!) Numerous severe weather reports have come out of the area, the most notable being trees and powerlines down in Lansing early this afternoon and a recorded wind gust of 55mph in Locke, 1.25" hail in Dryden and 1" hail in Cortland with the second round of storms.

So...are we done yet? For a little while at least. What has been happening is lake breeze fronts from Lake Erie and Ontario have been triggering storms between Rochester and Buffalo. These storms have been sitting and redeveloping over the same area for hours. As the individual cells move away from the lake breeze, they have been tracking southeast across the Finger Lakes, right into our neck of the woods. the last big storm that went through our area stabilized the atmosphere a good deal, and so as the cells break off of the lake breeze, they have started to quickly die out. I tend to doubt this will remain the case though. The sun is out and already working to destabilize the area once again. Eventually, I believe that another storm will have enough fuel to head down towards us once again, probably in the 1-3 hour time frame. After that, the lake breeze will start to die out. However, the cold front still has to come through and encounter a still unstable airmass across Western New York. more storms may fire up along that as it moves east...especially if it does so while the lake breeze is still adding extra lift to the atmosphere.

Bottom line: we may not be done yet...so stay tuned!

1PM Severe Weather Update

2010-07-21T12:59:00.006-04:00

2PM Update: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR S. CAYUGA COUNTY UNTIL 2:45 pm. A severe storm over Ontario county will move into S. Cayuga county over the next 30-60 minutes. I expect the warning to be extended/overlapped as the storm moves into the area. If the storm remains severe (and there is not really any reason for it not to), Groton, Homer and Cortland will have to watch out for this storm between 3-4 pm. Interesting note: All of the Grotonweather forecast area but extreme northeast Tompkins and northern Cortland Counties have been under severe thunderstorm warnings at some point today already! And our watch goes for 6 more hours.

Original 1PM post: Lots going on this afternoon already. A severe storm tore through central Tompkins county last hour. It is looking a bit less organized as it moves into S. Cortland county. I was in Ithaca, on the 11th floor of Bradfield Hall, Cornell as the storm passed. There was rotation with it, and I got some awesome pictures I will post tonight. The storm produced 1" hail in Trumansburg and took out "many" trees and powerlines in Lansing. No other reports yet (as of 1PM).

While all this was going on, the SPC moved us into a moderate risk. This is primarily for the threat of damaging winds. Now, we've already experienced severe weather...but is more on the way? Our watch goes until 8pm, afterall. The answer is yes, our threat still continues. There are more showers and storms forming over western New York back into Canada. The cold front itself stretches from Ontario back into Ohio and Indiana. The air just upstream is very unstable, and the storms we've already had shouldn't have much of an effect on our instability for the middle or latter part of the afternoon.

If you haven't become a fan of Grotonweather on facebook or a follower on Twitter, you will want to do so now! I've been posting up a storm (pun intended) on those two sites all morning with the latest updates and will continue to do so through the day. Also, the Grotonweather Toolbar is a great way to keep your eye on the latest forecast. Download it here. And, as always, the main site/blog will be updated throughout the day to keep you safe!

That's all for now. Keep checking back!

The GrotonWeather Toolbar!

2010-07-14T16:20:00.009-04:00

http://grotonweather.OurToolbar.com/

That is the hottest link around right now. Click it, and you can download the GROTONWEATHER TOOLBAR...the latest way to get your forecast quick and easy! Downloading this toolbar will allow you to have some great features displayed at the top of your browser window. Here is an explanation of each of the features in order, from right to left...

ToolbarLogo: Clicking on this will take you to the Grotonweather homepage. Additionally, there is a little white arrow just to the right of the logo. Clicking on this will drop down a menu with additional links. Of these, the most important is probably the "refresh toolbar" link at the top, especially if you leave your browser open for long periods of time. The forecast automatically updates around 6PM, so if you do not see a forecast for tonight by 6PM, click the refresh toolbar link!

Search Box: The search box is a staple on most toolbars, and allows you to easily search from the toolbar. The site I am using to create this toolbar does not allow for many options regarding the customization of this. As such, every time you highlight text, it automatically gets put into the search box. Click the arrow, and then you search for it! The sliding bar on the far right part of the image allows you to shrink and expand the search box. I suggest shrinking it down as far as possible, to allow room for the other content!

Forecast: Your forecast is shown here. The forecast automatically changes to the night forecast at 6PM. If it is after 6PM and you do not see the night forecast, hit the refresh toolbar link, as explained in the "toolbar logo" section. At the far right side of this, in brackets and color, is the "hazard of the day". Each day, the primary mode of hazardous weather you need to worry about will be displayed here. The colors correspond to the risk. For example, a red risk will be much more serious than a green or yellow one. If you move your mouse over the hazard, the forecast will disappear to show...

Hazard Text: This is just a simple message that takes the place of the forecast to inform you that there may be other hazards besides the one listed. Following that message is a link to the Grotonweather homepage to see what other hazards may be in store. Moving your mouse over the blue "return to forecast" text will display the forecast once again.

Twitter Feed: Even if you are not a fan of twitter, you can still get updates from Grotonweather's twitter channel here! Click the bird to display the latest posts in a drop-down window below the bird.

[pic not available yet] Doppler Radar: Clicking this box (its red with a sun icon in it) will bring up a map of the United States. Click New York (or any state) and the radar loop for that state will pop up.

Live Time & Temperature: The time and temperature are displayed live here. Clicking on the image will take you to the live stats from Groton. If the time appears out of date, then you may need to refresh your toolbar!

Scrolling Alerts: A Grotonweather original feature, any watches, warnings or advisories will be displayed here. As with the scrolling text on the main site, this is difficult to keep updated manually and may occasionally be out of date or miss displaying all alerts. This is something that will hopefully be automatically updating in the near future!

I hope you enjoy this toolbar. Make sure to suggest it, and grotonweather.com, to your friends and family! Don't forget to join us on Facebook and Twitter too!!

Video: Severe threat update

2010-06-23T21:01:00.003-04:00

Into the Moderate Risk

2010-06-23T09:27:00.002-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center has moved our area into a "moderate risk" zone. This is their 3rd of 4 severe weather categories...and the 4th and final one is rarely issued anywhere, and I cannot say that I have seen it used up here. I would say we see a moderate risk every other year or so. Sometimes we get in a pattern where we get a couple in a short time span, but then there are occasions when we don't get any in a whole year. So, in conclusion of all that...when the SPC puts out the moderate for our area, its time for me to really look at things.

So what is going on that has prompted this? A strong area of low pressure with strong winds aloft will be moving eastward towards us overnight tonight. This system has produced plenty of severe weather already. Currently, there is a line of thunderstorms stretching from Michigan down into Indiana, then stretching back into Illinois and Iowa as the low moves across Wisconsin. These storms will not effect us. The part of the line moving across Michigan will turn southeast and die out. However, in its wake, new storms will develop later this afternoon and form into another cluster. This cluster will move eastward into Western New York later this evening and into the first part of the night and then towards our area after midnight. As it crosses Michigan, southern Ontario and into western New York, it will be producing widespread damaging winds...and it is for that reason that the moderate risk has been posted.

The question for us, on the far eastern edge of the moderate risk, is whether or not the line's severe potential continues overnight. We are in the 45% range for damaging winds. That percentage means the SPC thinks there is a 45% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of a point. Statistically, from the center of the Grotonweather forecast area, a 25-mile radius covers the entire forecast area and some...so we can assume just a slightly lower probability of damaging winds in our area...very roughly 40%. That may not seem like a very high chance, but in reality, it is. I, however, am not so convinced, and would put the threat at maybe 20-30%. Here is why:

By the time the storms come over here, it will be well after dark. Typically, this would be very unfavorable for any severe weather with the loss of the daytime heating. However, our instability will actually increase overnight and, if the models are correct, peak sometime near or after sunrise tomorrow morning. From what I have been seeing on the models, the line should run our ahead of the main instability and thus weaken itself. Additionally...it will also likely outrun the upper level forcing and stronger winds aloft, which also come through tomorrow morning. If the timing of these matched up better, I would be more convinced a once-every couple years event was indeed unfolding.

Does this mean severe weather is not possible tonight? Absolutely not. These complexes of thunderstorms often develop their own mechanisms for keeping themselves going. If this were not the case, I wouldn't be overly concerned at all. Our instability will still only be marginal to moderate and, as I said earlier, the forcing and upper level winds aren't quite as good as a real classic event would have them. But since these things have a life of their own, there very well could be damage across our area overnight tonight. I do not feel at this time that the damage will be widespread, and certainly not on the scale of our area's most infamous overnight line of storms: The Labor Day 1998 event that destroyed the New York State fairgrounds.

Bottom line is this: Sometime after midnight, a line of thunderstorms should roll through our area. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, maybe a little small hail and gusty winds are likely. Some wind damage is not out of the question, but shouldn't be widespread. Rain and thunderstorms may continue to impact the region tomorrow morning though. Some models have shown very heavy rain in here tomorrow morning, so flash flooding could become a threat.

If anything looks like it has changed, I will post another update this afternoon. Otherwise, an update will be issued around 9m tonight to see how things have evolved through the day.

Tornado Watch to the south

2010-06-06T09:18:00.003-04:00

An early morning tornado watch is in effect for the counties just south of Tompkins and Cortland counties down through Pennsylvania and Ohio. There are severe thunderstorm warnings for those same counties (Chemung and Tioga specifically) as thunderstorms out ahead of a cold front move across the area. The cold front is back over Western New York/Pennsylvania, with the low itself sitting over Western New York. With severe storms and a tornado watch on our doorstep, I felt a blog update would be more prudent for today.

As the cold front and low move east this morning, the wind fields will definitely be supportive of possible tornadoes, if more thunderstorms can form along the front. While I do not think there is enough instability this morning...and with all the clouds around I do not foresee us destabilizing...with the potential for a short lived tornado or two if storms were to form, I have to at least mention the possibility. What will likely happen is the cold front will move east of us and some more showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder, will effect us from time to time today. Keep a look out though, and listen for any potential warnings. The best chance for severe weather will be between now and the early afternoon. Beyond that, the front will move through and temperatures will drop, likely ending up in the 50s by sunset.

Blizzard Video

2010-02-25T10:49:00.001-05:00

Here is my video update on the blizzard. Please leave feedback!

Snow Map

2010-02-24T22:05:00.004-05:00

There have only been a couple changes to the forecast in the past 24 hours since last night's blog entry. Firstly, there is little question now that the entire storm over our area will remain as snow. The main stream of warmer air will remain north of us, and I question how far west it will make it. This makes it a very difficult forecast for Syracuse, but I think even they will remain mostly or all snow. The second change is more precipitation for the Grotonweather area. These two factors combined have given me the confidence to up my snow totals to 12-18" for most of the area. Here is my snow map for the entire storm.

I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!

Largest Snowfall of 2009-2010 Winter Looming

2010-02-23T21:16:00.005-05:00

The largest snowfall for the Grotonweather.com area is on our horizon. This storm has consistently been on the models since Saturday, and I've just been waiting for it to become obvious that it won't happen. Over the past day and a half, I began to believe that this storm actually was going to happen, but the models remained inconsistent with the timing and exact location. There are still plenty of uncertainties to be figured out, but its time to start nailing down the seriousness of the storm. My main concern is not how much snow actually falls, but rather the blowing of the snow as the low explodes to our southeast. It will be a significant snowfall too, probably on the order of about a foot, but winds will make it seem like its snowing even heavier with near zero visibilities at times. Lets take this storm one aspect at a time.

Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.

Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.

Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.

Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.

Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.

Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.

3PM Snow Video

2010-02-09T15:26:00.002-05:00

NOTE: The watches, warnings and advisory part of the show is already out of date, with a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for the entire Grotonweather.com forecast area, and WINTER STORM WARNINGS in the bordering counties south and east. Enjoy the video...leave comments!

1PM Flooding Update- VIDEO

2010-01-25T13:28:00.003-05:00

Flooding Weather Video

2010-01-24T16:04:00.004-05:00

I have decided to try my hand at video blogging for the upcoming flood potential. Let me know what you think!

Ticking Time Bomb

2009-08-10T12:34:00.005-04:00

I like severe thunderstorms. They are fun to try to forecast and I find them exciting to experience. I of course don't like it when they do major damage or pose a significant threat to the safety of people. So, you could say there is a certain intangible threshold where a situation goes from enjoyable, to scary. I think we've already crossed that threshold today, and the nearest storms are just starting to pop in eastern Michigan.

Now, if you checked my site early this morning, you would have seen that I had taken it down and had prepared it to sit dormant for the next 10 days or so due to a variety of circumstances. However, things are evolving in such a way that I really feel like I need to be updating today.

Ok, so whats going on. If you haven't stepped outside lately, go do so. You will be greeted by a blast of heat and oppressive humidity when you do. Temperatures have already shot up into the 80s, and dewpoints are in the low 70s. This has already led to instability levels that are rare for our area, and high even by the standards of the Great Plains. So often, I talk about the role of cloud cover in severe weather outbreaks. Often times in our area, clouds in the morning and early afternoon inhibit destabilization, which is why we don't see extreme instability like we are seeing now very often. But it has been sunny and will continue to be sunny through the afternoon, which means things will only continue to destabilze to levels that far exceed anything we have seen this year, possibly even the past few years.

Instability alone is not enough to create a severe weather outbreak. You also need a trigger to get storms going. For us, that is a disturbance moving towards the east along a cold front. Right now, it is over southern Michigan...which is why the storms are forming there. As it moves east, this energy will provide the lift needed to allow storms to continue to form. As they interact with the unstable air, they will intensify. One more piece is needed though, and that is shear, or a change in wind speed or direction with height or horizontal distance. In this case, we are looking at speed shear from both the ground up into the atmosphere, and horizontally from south to north. This is because of an area of strong winds in the jet stream called a 'jet streak' that is to our north. This will provide the shear needed to organize the storms into segments, or even a squall line.

The way I see it right now, all of the ingredients are evolving to come together for a significant severe weather event for all of Central New York. The only question I really have is whether or not a massive squall line will form out of those storms in Michigan, or if there will be multiple, but smaller lines of storms. That is something that will only be determined as the afternoon goes on. Regardless, there is the potential for strong, destructive winds after roughly 4pm tonight. It wouldn't hurt to take some precautions now by putting away lawn furniture, securing loose objects, etc. The biggest threat from the storms is definatly wind and, if I was updating my site as normal, I would likely place it in the 'high' category. I believe that most, if not all counties in Central New York will experience at least some wind damage to trees.

Another danger tonight will be flash flooding....some areas, especially in Cortland County, got 3"+ of rain yesterday, with mudslides and road closures overnight in Cortland County. It won't take much heavy rain to create more problems. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! Flooding is the number 1 weather killer in the United States, and most of those fatalities occur in automobiles.

Watch for another update between 3 and 5pm, or sooner if a watch comes out. This is one forecast I hope I am not right on.

SEVERE WARNING!

2009-07-11T20:44:00.002-04:00

Northern Tompkins County, and then probably Cortland County, is in for a doozey of a storm. There is a ton of lightning with this one, and hail and strong winds are possible as well. Flash flooding is also a concern with the heavy rain. Take cover now!

Evening Severe Threat

2009-07-11T19:28:00.002-04:00

The severe threat is continuing across the area, even though our watch has been canceled and the first round has moved well off to the east. In fact, the SPC is watching a large area of New York and Pennsylvania for a potential watch...and this time, it could be a tornado watch. Right now, most storms are over Pennsylvania. There have been 2 tornado reports down there, and there is another tornado warning out right now. None of those storms will effect us though. However, there is a severe thunderstorm cluster southeast of Buffalo, with additional storms over Lake Erie and north of Lake Ontario. Even though the daytime heating is over, the conditions in the atmosphere are such that the amount of instability will possibly even increase as the evening goes on.

Stay tuned...next update should come by 9pm. Check www.weather.gov/bgm to see if a watch has been issued for the area.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #570

2009-07-11T11:01:00.003-04:00

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of Western and Central New York until 6pm. The main threat the SPC is outlining is damaging winds. Here are the complete risks from the watch:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (10%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

And the counties in the watch:

Risks Upgraded

2009-07-11T09:45:00.003-04:00

There have been a couple of changes in the forecast this morning as things area already rapidly evolving. Probably the most significant of these changes is that, instead of all the clouds and rain the models had been forecasting for us this morning, skies are clear. This is causing the atmosphere to destabilize quicker and more intensely than had been forecasted. Another thing to look at is the radar. Thunderstorms are widespread just west of Buffalo, and already, there are some storms popping out ahead of this main area...so the question of whether or not storms will form is out the window.

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a 30-30-5% risk for wind-hail-tornadoes, respectively. All three of those are on the upper end of their 'slight' risk category. After looking at a couple things, I moved my hail and win up to moderate, and kept tornadoes at slight. Since storms are already firing, I moved the thunderstorm risk all the way up, which the NWS in Binghamton also did on their threat outlooks.

Here is what I am expecting for each threat:

Thunderstorms: Extreme-
Widespread thunderstorms can be expected with almost everywhere getting a storm. Frequent lightning should accompany the storms, and a fair number of them will likely be severe.

Wind: Moderate-
With the sun out this morning and strong upper level winds, wind damage is likely somewhere in Central New York, with some possibility of widespread damaging winds. 3 to 7 damaging wind reports are possible in the Grotonweather forecast area (Tompkins, S. Cayuga and Cortland Counties), with more elsewhere in Central New York. Should a widespread wind event evolve, this will be increased to high.

Hail: Moderate-
With extra instablity from the sun this morning, and indications of favorable hail formation from both the models, and current observations, hail could become a major factor today. 3 to 7 severe (0.75" of bigger) hail reports in the forecast area is possible, with more elsewhere in Central New York. Hail sizes should stay below 1.5", but an isolated storm could produce up to 2" hail. An upgrade to a high risk is not expected at this time.

Tornadoes: Slight-
Little changes to the tornado forecast have been made. A tornado somewhere in Western and Central New York seems almost likely. Multiple tornadoes could be possible, but this certainty isn't enough for a moderate risk at the time. However, with strong southeast winds at the surface, winds at low levels out of the southwest, and upper level winds coming in from the west, the threat for tornadoes will need to be watched closely.

Friday Afternoon's Severe Weather Outlook for 7/11

2009-07-10T15:47:00.004-04:00

I spent the morning and early afternoon down at the National Weather Service in Binghamton, where I am an intern this summer, and used some of their in-house tools to try to get a better handle on the severe weather threat tomorrow. I will mention that the meteorologists there this morning believe tomorrow will be an active day and seem to have a high confidence level.

One of the tools I used this morning was a form called the 'severe weather checklist'. This form has you enter in forecasted values for a variety of severe weather parameters. After doing so, it returns the 5 most similar severe weather days in recent Central New York history. When completing this checklist this morning, it returned 4 days of 'isolated supercells', including May 16th, 2009, which had 3 tornadoes in the area, and May 31, 2002, which had 4 tornadoes. The fifth day was classified as a 'broken line'. Hail was the primary threat from the five days collectively. That tells me that not everywhere tomorrow will see a strong thunderstorm....some areas may barely even get any rain. However, there is certainly potential for some severe weather, and someone will likely have to deal with a damaging storm.

Here is a glance at where I have my threat levels, and an in depth look at exactly what I mean by each threat level, as well as what would need to happen for an upgraded risk:

Thunderstorms: moderate-
Thunderstorms are likely across much of the area. A few places, however, will be missed and get little to no rain. Frequent lightning will accompany some of the storms.

High Winds: slight-
Some storms may contain strong winds. Wind damage will be isolated to scattered, with 3 to 10 reports in Central New York. Sunshine in the morning would increase the chances of wind damage, and could get this bumped up to a moderate risk.

Hail: slight-
Small hail will be possible with stronger storms tomorrow, but most hail should remain uner 1" in diameter. The strongest storms may produce up to 1.5" hail. 5-12 Severe hail (over 0.75") events can be expected in Central New York. This is still rather uncertain, and could be upgraded to a moderate risk should the models show a bit better conditions for hail tomorrow morning.

Tornadoes: slight-
Conditions are favorable for rotating storms, and tornadoes could form. My best current guess is that somewhere in Western, Central and Southern New York will see a weak tornado, but as many as 2 or 3 wouldn't surprise me. This would most likely not be upgraded to moderate unless numerous storms that have already developed are showing signs of becoming tornadic.

Expect the next website update to occur between 9 and 11 am tomorrow. A blog update should occur within 30 minutes of that. There also could be a quick blog update tonight. During the afternoon tomorrow, I plan to have the weather chat open and will be updating th blog and website as needed. Stay tuned!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

2009-06-25T16:26:00.004-04:00

A large cell with the capability of producing hail and damaging winds is about to move into Tompkins County. Lansing and Dryden look like they will take the brunt of this one. There is another cell to its northwest that could come towards Groton, Cortland and Moravia in the next hour or two. Stay tuned.

4:45 UPDATE: that cell I mentioned to the northwest has gone severe as well. The radar below is an updated image.

Severe Storm Potential

2009-06-09T09:39:00.003-04:00

I am very impressed with the atmosphere this morning and feel like this is perhaps the best severe weather set up we have had so far this spring. There is a cold front draped across eastern Ohio this morning that will move eastward and trigger thunderstorms. Ahead of that front, skies have cleared across western New York, creating an already unstable atmosphere even more so. I was surprised to see the instability indexes so high already this morning. You did not need me to tell you that, however, as the humidity this morning is making it feel very uncomfortable and muggy.

The main threat today is going to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, conditions also appear favorable for a tornado or two to form, so you will want to keep an eye to the sky. The Storm Prediction Center does not actually have us in a slight risk area today, for reasons that are beyond my understanding. I feel that the will reverse their thinking as the morning wears on and, with their 12:30pm update, add us to the slight risk area. You can check that by clicking here.

I will not be able to update this during the afternoon today. I will actually be down at the National Weather Service in Binghamton on my first day as a summer intern there. I do not think there could have been a better day for me to start, and I believe it will be a very active day down there. Click Here for the latest watches and warning, and click here for a look at the radar.

A New WARNING

2009-05-16T15:42:00.002-04:00

As the first storm begins to move into Cortland County after putting down 3/4" hail in King Ferry, a new batch of storms has prompted a warning for Tompkins County and points west. As of now, the worst of this storm looks to be heading along Route 13 and points south, arriving in Ithaca roughly at 4:30, and Dryden about 4:45. As you can see on the radar, this storm is bulging eastward in the middle. That is a classic bow echo signature, which is indicative of some very strong winds. Those in Ithaca and Dryden will want to rush to bring in lawn furniture and anything else that can blow around!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

2009-05-16T15:03:00.002-04:00

I have been tracking a storm that now has a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Southern Cayuga and Northern Tompkins and Cortland Counties. Here is the radar at 3:09 PM.

This storm likely has damaging winds and hail with it. Also, there is some rotation in this, which indicates more that it is a healthy, dangerous storm than a chance for a tornado. Please let me know if you have wind damage/hail! Take pictures if possible!

A Look at Watch #280

2009-05-09T12:57:00.005-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that stretches across almost all of New York State. It remains in effect until 7pm tonight. Here is a look at the exact counties it includes. As you can see, Tompkins, Cortland and S. Cayuga are right in the middle of it.

The main threat from this event is going to be damaging winds. Hail will also be possible, and my gut feeling is there will be a tornado somewhere in the watch box. The official probabilities that the SPC has put with the watch:
Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

Since it is at the top of the hour, the current observations and indicies will not be in for another 20-40 minutes. Looking at the data from noon, though, it is obvious to me that the atmosphere is quickly destabilizing. Also, a pocket of strong winds in the upper atmosphere is beginning to move into Western New York, and will spread over the rest of the state, enhancing the thunderstorms. Storms are going to develop from west to east, and have already begun to fire up across Western New York, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These storms should organize into a squall line eventually, which is when the greatest threat for wind damage will be. The highest tornado and hail threat will be just prior to that, when the storms are more individual cells.

Be sure to keep checking back through the afternoon for the latest!

First Watch of the Season!

2009-05-09T12:15:00.006-04:00

12:45 Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued! Full blog post analyzing the situation coming...

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Central and Eastern New York as an area where a weather watch will "likely" be needed. The watch will likely be issued by 1PM. Stay tuned! I am watching this carefully and will have the watch up on the site within moments of its issuance!

>Click here for your full forecast

Thursday Weather Update

2009-04-01T21:57:00.003-04:00

Based on the number of hits on the site today, it appears this storm has generated a nice little bit of hype! Here is what it is looking like based on the latest runs of the models that I have available:

~A cold front came through earlier today and is currently over New England

~The front stretches back into the South, where low pressure will develop and strengthen, leading to an outbreak of severe weather.

~Central New York will see high pressure, with lots of sun shine and highs in the low to mid 60s.

~Yep...that's right, it was an April Fools joke. :) No storm tomorrow!

~Feel free to leave comments and yell at me for pulling your leg, and enjoy the early spring weather tomorrow!

Click here for your real forecast!

Late Season Storm

2009-04-01T13:52:00.004-04:00

Click here to return to the homepage

Here is the latest on the late season snow event tomorrow.

Not a whole lot has changed since this morning. The cold front is spreading areas of rain across the region this afternoon. This front extends all the way into the southeast and back towards Louisiana and Texas. An area of low pressure is developing across the Deep South and will trigger a large severe weather out break tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large moderate risk out for that:

The front that is moving through today will stall out to our east. Meanwhile, that low will fly up the front to a position near New York City by mid afternoon tomorrow. There will be just enough cold air being pulled into the storm that it should be all snow for the areas in blue on this map I created:

The low will be moving pretty quickly up the stalled front and the ground is warm, so accumulations shouldn't be huge. The change over to snow will occur first in the higher elevations, and it will remain colder there as well, so expect the highest totals there. The rest of Central New York should get a moderate snow, but not enough to cause too many problem. It will be windy as well though, so use caution traveling tomorrow as the wind and snow will create poor visibilities. Here is my snowfall map for the entire storm, which should wind down pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.

Where does this storm rank with some other 'out of season' storms? Its actually not very impressive. In 2007, our area was hit by almost 2 feet (18" is what I measured) on April 16-17th. In early October 2006, a monster lake effect event pounded Buffalo, causing millions of dollars worth of damage since the heavy wet snow stuck to the leaves on trees and brought them down. So this is more just a nuisance storm than anything. One commonality between the three storms is the lack of willingness on the part of the media to be bold and predict snow. Granted, the models are all over the place with this, as can be expected. But I feel really confident about this storm, as I did the April 2007 storm.

I will update again late tonight. I have a test in Tropical Meteorology (so ironic, isn't it?) tomorrow, so I won't be able to update again until 10 or 11. Stay tuned though!

Flooding Concerns

2009-03-10T11:17:00.005-04:00

Over the past few days, a couple of heavy rain events have effected our area. This has left rivers near or just starting to go over their banks and the ground saturated. With another heavy rain event on the way, this is a bit closer look at the potential impacts.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center puts out river forecasts for the more major rivers. In the Cortland-Southern Cayuga-Tompkins tri-county region, there are three locations that get these forecasts: The Tioughnioga River in Cortland, and Cayuga Lake and Fall Creek in Ithaca. Each location has 4 levels of flooding: action stage, flood stage, moderate stage, and major stage. The action stage is the only one where flooding does not actuall occur. Currently, the two stations in Ithaca are below action stage and are not forecasted to rise to action stage. Our attention then turns to Cortland, where the Tioughnioga is already above flood stage, but is not quite forecasted to get to the moderate stage: (click to enlarge)

Here also is the projected rainfall for Cortland, as forecasted by the NWS: (click to enlarge)

While this rain will certainly swell the Tioughnioga, major flooding problems should be avoided. Now, there are plenty of other small streams and rivers in the area that are swollen. With my resources, I can't tell you which ones will have more flooding problems than others. If you live near a stream, just keep an eye on it, especially tomorrow morning towards the end of the rain. Most importantly though, if you are driving, and you come to a water covered roadway, do not try to drive through it. There is no telling how deep the water is.

Ithaca Ice Jam Location

2009-02-12T08:45:00.004-05:00

Noon Update: The Ice Jam has broken up and Fall Creek is back to its normal level. The Flood Warning has been canceled.

This is a map that the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service has for the flood gauge that is reporting the ice jam in Ithaca. If you have travel plans in that area, it would be best to find another route!

Groundhog Day Speculation

2009-01-29T13:18:00.002-05:00

The meteorological community is abuzz with excitement today. Numerous models are all in agreement with a major storm coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico Monday and then sitting somewhere over the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I thought that with all the hype around this storm already, people might be curious what I think.

First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.

Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.

The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.

The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.

February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.

Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!

Not Done Yet!

2009-01-28T14:19:00.002-05:00

The snow has ended in Central New York for now. However, we are not done with this storm yet! I do not think this is a classic dry-slotting event, as it is more of a 'bubble' inside the larger precipitation shield instead of a plume. I think this gap is more likely an area between pieces of energy associated with this storm. The warm air trying to come north created the lift needed for our snow overnight and earlier today, but now that energy has worked off to the east. The energy associated with the low remains to our west, so right now, there is not enough lifting force to precipitate. That, plus the periods of sleet and freezing rain this morning, will keep snow totals away from the 12" mark. However, another few inches of snow can be expected as part 2 comes through later this afternoon, putting most places in the 6-10" range. Here is a look at the WeatherTap Radar from 2:15pm.

Wednesday Morning Update

2009-01-28T08:45:00.002-05:00

Just a quick update this morning. Sadly I still have classes this morning, so I won't be updating again for a while today.

Heavy snow is overspread the region and the radar shows plenty more to come. As of 8am, my house had 5.2". This will easily put us into the 7-12" range, even though it now looks like there could be some sleet mixing in for a time this afternoon. I still like the 7-12" prediction for most of the area.

The snow will continue through the afternoon and early evening before tapering off. Lake enhancement will hold the snow around after the storm moves off, giving some areas an extra couple of inches.

Weathertap National Radar:

Wednesday's Storm

2009-01-27T13:27:00.002-05:00

I have decided not to issue a snowfall map for this storm simply because it looks like the entire area will have a pretty uniform accumulation from this. All of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier look to be in for a good 7-12". I upped the amounts slightly from this morning based on the models bringing in more moisture than previous runs. I even saw some indications of amounts over a foot, but I think that is overdone.

All of the models are now in pretty good agreement with each other except for one. Normally, when a model is drastically different from the others, it wouldn't put too much of a damper on my confidence levels. However, this time it is the European model, which has been out-performing the other models all winter. The problem is...the Euro brings in enough warm air to cause a snow/sleet mix to occur over Central New York. My forecast totals do not reflect that happening, but if it does happen, I would think accumulations more on the order of just 4-8".

Another concern I have is my old nemesis, the dry slot. With any big storm, dry air works around the center and gets wrapped up into the storm from the southwest. If I mess up a big-snow forecast, usually it seems to be the dry slot that is the culprit. The models have this punch of dry air working across Pennsylvania during the day tomorrow, staying to our south. I imagine the counties right along the State Line have the best chance of being hit by it, meaning their snow totals may be on the lower end of the 7-12", where as the northern areas will be on the higher end. Like the mixing, my forecast doesn't have the dry slot coming in, but if the models miss and it ends up 50-100 miles further north, most areas will be hard pressed to get into that 7-12" range.

As for the timing of this storm, the snow will likely start tonight between 9-11PM. It won't take too long for the snow to get heavy, and we should have 3-5" by tomorrow morning's commute. I do not expect the snow begin to let up until after sunset tomorrow. Even then, we will be dealing with snow showers and perhaps some occasional periods of moderate snow right through the night. I would say a snow day is a decent bet for most places tomorrow, but its never an absolute. The WeatherChat will be opening sometime after 6:30 tonight and will likely stay open right through 11pm or midnight.

Dry Slotting

2008-12-19T14:28:00.005-05:00

Snow Totals:
10AM- Dusting
11AM- 0.5"
12PM- 1.5"
1PM- 3.2"
2PM- 4.2"
3PM- 4.6"

Post:
Bad news for snow totals, good news for traveling...but the storm's dry slot is going to just hit Groton. It is racing eastward across Southern New York and should be entering Tompkins and Cortland Counties by 3:30. This should more or less end the snow.

Now, the low is forecast to start taking more of a southeasterly track, so I think we will get back into the snow this evening. However, we will be hard pressed to get to 8" I think...let alone a foot. I think 5-9" total would be a good projection for Groton now. Areas just to the north, however, that remain in the snow will stick in that 8-14" range.

Morning Storm Update

2008-12-19T09:51:00.009-05:00

It is now quarter after 10am, and everything is going pretty much as expected. The snow started here in Groton about an hour ago, and already visibilities are down to roughly a mile as the snow has started to pick up in intensity. Looking at the official 10AM observations, Ithaca is reporting light snow, with moderate snow in Rochester, Penn Yan, and Dansville, and heavy snow falling in Buffalo. Over the next hour, expect the snow to continue to increase in intensity to the rate of an inch or so an hour. The snow will continue at least at that intensity, likely reaching 2" per hour at times, through the afternoon. Heavy and moderate snow is being reported back through Michigan. There is actually heavy snow in Wisconsin as well, but I think Lake Michigan is enhancing that snow since the winds are out of the northeast. Here is a look at the radar (from 9:30...but that is recent enough to get the point across). You can see any mixed precipitation is well south, and the snow extends back into the areas I just described. All this is moving more or less east-southeast.

Bottom line is the snow is going to come down hard very soon and continue at rates of 1-2" per hour until at least sundown. There may even be some thunder and lightning in the snow during the early and mid afternoon. Please leave a comment here, or log onto the chat (assuming it is open) and report any thunder! The chat room will likely be open most of the day today as well. I will continue to update this blog hourly, probably just with snow totals, but also any new information that comes in.

Another Friday Snow Storm

2008-12-18T18:01:00.003-05:00

Another Friday, another snow storm for Central New York. Unlike last week's storm, this storm is not a nor' easter. It is pretty much moving west to east, so there is no worry about the models having an eastward bias. That makes my life a little easier this time around. I decided to do a snow map after all, even though the entire GrotonWeather forecast area should get the same amount.

As you can see, this will be a big storm, despite its relatively short duration. The snow will being to move in during the morning, before coming heavy by 10 or 11AM. It will really come down hard for a period of 6-8 hours, likely exceeding an inch per hour at times. By the evening, it will quickly taper off to just flurries over night.

I am going to dinner now, but once I get back (by 6:30-7), I will open the chatroom to field questions...and I will likely be there a good part of the night!

Love That East Bias!

2008-12-11T16:02:00.003-05:00

I hinted this morning in my forecast discussion that "If it [the storm] really gets its act together, we could end up on the high end of those totals [from last night's snow map]." Well, the storm remains very impressive on satellite and radar. One thing is very evident though. The eastward bias of the models I was talking about is showing up perhaps even more significantly than I thought it would.

When I looked at the models last night, the back edge of the precipitation was roughly from a Pittsburgh, PA to Rochester, NY line. Already though, precipitation is being detected on radar as far west as Cleveland and Buffalo (though it is probably not yet reaching the ground). The low right now is over northern Georgia and is already a good one hundred or so miles further west than it is supposed to be.

The National Weather Service and local media stations have picked up on this finally and have more or less come into agreement with what I was saying yesterday. Tompkins and Cortland Counties are now under WINTER STORM WARNINGS instead of the Advisories that were in effect. Those last until 10AM tomorrow. Since the low will track a little further inland, the precipitation may be a bit heavier and last a bit longer than last night. I also mentioned this morning the possibility of expanding the 6-10" range west. As you can see, I have now done that with this new data.

After school activities have been canceled for many schools in our area. I would say that the chances of a snow day have increased a bit. It is still far from a certainty, but there is certainly cause for hope!

Also, if you haven't heard yet, I have a new feature on the site that I just added this morning. If you look to the black bar on the right side of the page, you will see a link to the 'GrotonWeather Weather Chat.' The text will either say the chat is open, of that it is closed. If it is open, it means I am sitting in the chat room, ready to give you whatever information you want to know about the weather! So, if you see that the room is open, come on in!

Snow Map

2008-12-10T23:32:00.006-05:00

11AM Update: I just added a new feature to the website....a chat room! The link to the chat room can be found in the black bar on the right side of the page. More often than not, I will have the chat room closed. But, during times of severe or extreme weather, when I am on my computer forecasting, I will open up the chat for you to ask my questions about the weather. Please click the link to the right for more details...and if the room is open, stop in and say hi!

10:20AM Update: I have updated the main forecast page as promised. Next blog should be sometime between 4-7PM...probably sooner rather than later!

Original Post:
At last, here is the snow map. When one of the models came in, it still had the storm way east, with Ithaca getting an amazing 0.07" of snow from the storm. That isn't the model I prefer to use on a day to day basis anyways though, so I didn't put too much stock into. The model I do use takes a bit longer to become available (since it goes out a lot longer), so that is why the map has taken so long. That model seems to be settling in nicely with my earlier predictions now.

The temperatures during this storm are going to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30. Since wet snow doesn't accumulate as much as drier snow, I slightly lowered totals from what I pulled out of thin air earlier. As for snow days, at this time, I would probably say its a good idea to expect school on Friday, but someone in the area will likely wake up with a nice surprise three-day weekend.

My next update will likely not be a blog entry, but just my normal morning forecast update. Just click the banner at the very top of the page to see that.

Here we go!

2008-12-10T15:54:00.003-05:00

Winter Storm Watches have (finally) been posted for the grotonweather.com forecast area! I say finally because, if I had been working at the National Weather Service, I would have issued these watches yesterday. All season long, and going back into last season, the models have shown an eastward biased with storms coming up from the south. This is a large part of why a lot of last winter had a lot of hype about snow storms (myself included), only to have the storms start as snow, then change to ice and/or rain. The actual storm tracks have continuously come further west than the models suggest. So when I saw the models showing snow for Eastern New York and New England yesterday, I thought 'Thats going to hit CNY'....and now, it looks like it will.

The NWS has Winter Storm Warnings up for areas just south and east of us. I again have to say though...they are too far east! Even just a day or so ahead of this event, I do not trust the models to place the heaviest snow properly. So, I am diverging from them and the NWS and, while I haven't checked them, likely the local media as well.

So, what is this all about. An area of low pressure is over the southeast. As I said in this morning's discussion, severe thunderstorms, including torandoes, have been ongoing constantly since yesterday morning. This is indicative of the energy of this storm. As this storm comes up the coast, it will interact with the cold air left over from today's front, with the circulation just pulling more of it in. It will be a classic nor' easter...just not super powerful.

Snow will likely begin to fall in our area sometime in the late afternoon tomorrow and become heavy into the night. This storm will be a pretty quick mover, so that will help in keeping totals down. I also think that, even with the eastward biased, the heaviest snow will stay just east of our area. I haven't had enough time to hammer out a snow map yet, but, on a whim, I am thinking 5-9" is likely for most of Tompkins County and Southern Cayuga County, with perhaps 6-10" over Cortland County.

And now...what you all really want to know....will there be school on Friday? After my epic failing on predicting a snow day last February, I considered not even doing snow days this season...but, due to popular request, I will. Since this storm is coming through at night, I would say there is certainly a chance. Just how much of a chance remains to be seen. You will have to keep checking back to find out!

Next projected update: 10-11:30PM: Snow map!

3PM Snow Update

2008-11-21T15:15:00.003-05:00

Sorry this update is a bit later than I promised. I ran into some difficulties with making the snow map.

The lake effect has been pretty disorganized through the day as winds haven't really aligned themselves well yet. The models showed this happening relatively well. This disorganization should continue until about sunset, when things really start to get going. I am expecting multiple bands of lake effect to form, with probably two main bands. They will move around a bit overnight, so plenty of areas should see some high snow totals. Here is what I am thinking for amounts by 9AM tomorrow morning:

As with any lake effect event, not every area within each contour will get that amount of snow and the variance from one spot to another can be very large. So, that snow map shows the most likely amounts that are to occur in each area.

Tomorrow, the lake effect should calm down as the day gets into the afternoon. Additional accumulations tomorrow will likely be anywhere from 1-4" in the white and light blue areas, to 3-7" in the darker blue.

Quick Friday Morning Update

2008-11-21T08:36:00.003-05:00

Only have time for a quick update this morning. Expect a more complete update this afternoon between 1:30-3.

The Lake Effect Snow Watches have been replaced with warnings and advisories. Which counties are under what is shown below. I honestly can not begin to fathom why Tompkins County is NOT under at least an advisory. The NWS forecast for Ithaca is calling for 1-2" of snow today, then another 4-6" overnight and 2-4" more on Saturday. That is a total of 7-12". That is even beyond advisory criteria...we should be under a warning. The amounts forecast by the NWS for Groton are even higher.

Make sure to tune back this afternoon. I will be updating as soon as I can.

More Lake Effect Coming!

2008-11-20T18:03:00.003-05:00

Lake effect snow watches have been posted for 2/3 of the grotonweather forecast area, so I decided to go with a blog entry tonight instead of a normal update.. In general, I think I will mostly blog-update during this event, which means you will see the blog up when you come to the site until Sunday morning. As always, you can get to the main page by cicking the banner at the top of the page, or by following the 'Homepage' link under 'Grotonweather Pages'. The homepage currently isn't updated, but will be later tonight or tomorrow as well though. To the weather now:

A very weak and moisture starved storm system has been moving across the area today. This storm will turn winds more northerly tonight and then northwesterly for Friday and Saturday. The airmass that is moving in is pretty much perfect for a big lake effect snow event. I can not remember the NWS posting Lake Effect Snow Watches for areas so far away from the Lake, yet Southern Cayuga and Cortland Counties are both under watches. Admittedly, this is another one of those situations I so often talk about where something is issued for Southern Cayugan and Cortland, but really applies for Groton and Northeastern Tompkins County as well. That is why, on the map below, I have shaded the counties under the watch, as well as where I think the best shot for heavy snow is.

The exact location of the band(s), as usual, is a tough forecast. Normally with this kind of set up, there seems to be a heavy band across Northern Cayuga County, stretching right through Syracuse and into Madison County. A second, slightly weak band, likes to set up in Southern Cayuga and Northern Cortland counties, clipping the Groton area. Of course, these bands aren't always in the same position, and 10 miles difference can make the difference between 2" or 12".

My best guess at amounts are this: Someone in the northern half of the pink area will get well over a foot, possibly upwards of 2 feet by Sunday morning. In the southern half of the pink, someone will get a foot.

The weather models I had available to me this afternoon were from early this morning. As more recent models come in, I will try to pin down amounts a bit more. Stay tuned!

Nor' Easter, then Lake Effect

2008-10-28T08:51:00.004-04:00

Our nor' easter is starting to really wind up off of the New Jersey coast this morning. This has spread a solid area of precipitation from the Finger Lakes, east. Most of what you see on the radar is rain, but it has already changed over to snow in Binghamton and Scranton.

At 9AM, it was 37 in Ithaca, so that, combined with where it is already snowing in Binghamton, has made me expect a change over to snow a bit earlier than I was anticipating last night. This has been reflected in the higher snow amounts on the snow map below. For Groton specifically, since I placed us on the boundary between two areas, I would expect to see 2 or 3, maybe 4 inches downtown, with as much as 5 or 6 on the hills.

This storm should be well on its way out by midnight tonight. However, just as that storm departs, the Lake Effect machine will kick in for Wednesday and Wednesday night before tapering off Thursday. It is still too early to tell where exactly the heaviest lake effect will set up, and whether or not it will remain snow, but here is my best guess for snow intensity at this time:

If you want to help me out with this, as I sit up here in Oswego, it is very hard for me to know what exactly the precipiation type is elsewhere. It would be very helpful if you could leave a comment on here letting me know when you first see snow, no matter where you are. Current data from spotters is very imporatant to meteorologists, so I would really appreciate your observations! Thanks!

First snow of the season!

2008-10-27T18:28:00.004-04:00

The past 24 hours have been crazy on the weather models. Yesterday, all but one model, the North American Mesoscale (NAM) were showing an area of low pressure heading into eastern New England, leaving Central New York more or less alone, with lake effect kicking in towards Tuesday night and Wednesday. The NAM, however, brought the storm much closer, giving our area its first accumulating snow of the year. Over the past 24 hours, however, the other models have come into agreement with the NAM, and suddenly we have a snow storm on our hands!

Now, keep in mind, I use 'snow storm' in the context of a normal October. We won't be seeing feet of snow, but for a first snow, this is pretty big. Here is what is happening:

An area of low pressure is beginning to form over North Carolina. Already moisture is spreading northward ahead of this, though most isn't reaching the ground yet. As this storm explodes and heads north, it will pull down some chilly air. That will make the precipitation that starts tonight and for the first part of tomorrow mostly rain. More importantly, however is that this rain will be snow not very high up in the atmosphere. As it melts, it will aid in cooling things down and changing precipitation over to snow. The higher elevations will see the change over first, probably as early as mid to late morning tomorrow. The lower elevations will begin to change over during the afternoon and evening hours. By tomorrow night, everyone should be seeing accumulating snow. Cayuga and Tompkins counties are not under any advisories, but Cortland county, with its higher hill tops, is under a Winter Weather Advisory.

The winds will be gusty with this as well. That, plus the heavy, wet nature of this snow could cause some branches to come down in the higher terrain. Had this come a week or two earlier, when the leaves were still on the trees, we would have some problems. We are lucky though and I am not anticipating many, if any, power outages.

This storm will be a quick mover, so real high totals aren't expected. The map below shows what to expect through 9AM Wednesday. Beyond that, Lake Effect snows will set up, but probably stay to our north, with additional accumulations. Stay tuned!

Abnormal September Tornado Threat

2008-09-14T10:13:00.004-04:00

I can't say I saw this one coming, but I get up this morning and almost everything I look at points to today being a rough day across parts of Central New York. Last year in meteorology class, we went over tornado forecasting in quite some detail. A lot of the things we were told to look for have started to line up. The one thing that will probably prevent this from being an outbreak is the fact that the air aloft isn't all that cold. That warm air aloft should help keep the instability less than it would be on other days that are this humid. Regardless to say, the Storm Prediction Center has us in their '5%' chance of tornadoes.

There are meteorologists, however, who do not like the SPC's % system. One of them is Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, who I have mentioned many times. Over the summer, he developed a scale to better address the threats of severe thunderstorms. His scale goes from 1-4 and outlines specific threats for each category. You will likely have to click the image to read it, but here is a look at his system:

Henry has placed us in his T3 Category today mainly for the tornado threat. It will be interesting to see how this one unfolds. Stay tuned!

Some Strong Storms

2008-08-18T15:58:00.005-04:00

4:30PM Update: The storm that I mentioned earlier (below) has begun to reach the end of its life cycle. All Groton should get from this is some rain. I would suspect that the previous storms today stabilized the atmosphere enough to kill this one.

Original Post: Groton and the area has already gotten a few thunderstorms today, one of which produced 3/4" hail in McGraw. After those storms passed, the Storm Prediction Center surprised me and issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, stretching from Steuben County (to our southwest) all the way into Maine. The watch runs until 11PM, but since we near the back edge of it, I would guess it will be cut back before that.

In the short term, storms continue to develop over our area and move eastward. One cell formed further west and has had time to develop into a strong, healthy looking storm. That storm is just northeast of Trumansburg and heading due east, straight for Groton. It could have some small hail with it right now, but by the time it gets here, it could very well have some slightly larger hail. I will edit this post as needed for any warnings that come out or any other information as this storm approaches. My best guess would be about 4:50PM for an arrival time of the heaviest rain in Groton.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning!

2008-08-10T19:38:00.004-04:00

The sun we had most of the afternoon has finally given way to thunderstorms in our immediate area. So far, Groton has been spared, though there was a report of 1.75" in Scott in Cortland County.

It looks like that is about to change, however. A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Groton and the surrounding areas until 8PM, though I wouldn't be surprised to see that time extended. A storm is moving north-northwest, coming at us from the Binghamton area. Hail reports have been frequent with this storm out of Broome County, the largest being 1.75". It looks a bit weaker than that, however. Hail is still possible, along with heavy rain and lightning. There is another storm a few miles to the southwest of that one, so the severe and flash flood threat will continue through the next hour or so.

Beyond that, there is a larger area of rain that will move in tonight. Here is a look at the radar over Tompkins County. The little boxes with three dots are recent reports of hail.

8PM update: The storm completely and utterly died. It is nothing more than a light shower now, despite producing 1.25" hail near Brooktondale. The other storm is still there and strong, but it might push west of Groton.

Advertising Space for Sale

2008-08-08T18:22:00.002-04:00

Hello Groton and the surrounding areas! I am writing tonight about a new feature on Grotonweather.com...the ability for you to advertise your business on my site!

I have space for 2-4 advertisements on the right side of the page. Currently, there is an advertisement for Groton's website, 13073.com, to give you an idea of the size and placement of your ad.

You may submit a picture to use as an advertisement, or I will create one for you. If you have a website, the advertisement will be linked to your site. If you do not have a website, that is fine too.

I don't have set prices for the space. Instead, I will negotiate a price and length of time for your advertisement, making it fit your budget...not that I am planning on charging a whole lot!

If you are interested, please click one of the 'Advertise Your Business Here' boxes to the left, or simply click here.

In the future, I am also planning to add a store where I will sell t-shirts, caps, mugs, calendars and other such items. That will likely be coming sometime in the fall, so keep an eye out for it!

Split Forecast Area

2008-06-29T12:43:00.004-04:00

The grotonweather.com forecast area has been split by Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638. Cayuga County is under the watch, while Tompkins and Cortland got left out. In all honesty, however, that is just a technicality. Conditions are just as favorable for severe thunderstorms in Tompkins and Cortland Counties as they are in Cayuga...the SPC has to draw the line somewhere, however. I am expecting another watch to be issued later this afternoon that will include the rest of the area.

Numerous thunderstorms have developed over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. These storms will track east, with damaging winds and hail the main threats. Other storms will develop as well, so it looks like we may have a decent severe weather event on our hands.

Severe t-storm approaching!

2008-06-27T14:42:00.002-04:00

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Severe Thunderstorm WARNING for Northern Tompkins County and surrounding areas. This includes Groton. A large thunderstorm, likely containing hail, is currently just west of Cayuga Lake, moving east. Expect torrential downpours, hail and frequent lightning with this storm!

I think its a flop

2008-06-22T16:39:00.003-04:00

I really am having my doubts about our severe weather chances. There seems to be a 'dead zone' in the atmosphere were some dry air has worked in. Our dew point is currently sitting at 54, which is normally much too low for severe weather. This area of dry air extends well to our west and south west, so I am not anticipating much to pop.

Now, if some more moist air can work its way in during the next two or three hours, we could get some storms later this evening...but I really think that, for our area, this one is a flop.

Click here to proceed to the normal grotonweather.com homepage

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

2008-06-22T14:29:00.003-04:00

Thunderstorms have begun to develop all across the Northeast and Ohio Valley, including Central and Western New York. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of the counties shaded in blue below, including Tompkins County pretty much smack dab in the middle of the watch:

The probabilities with this watch indicate that the SPC is most concerned with hail, followed closely by damaging winds. The chances of 10 or more hail reports in the watch area is 70%, with a 50% chance of 10 or more hail reports.

Looking at the regional radar, you can see lots of thunderstorms scattered about the area. These will continue to develop, increasing in strength and coverage.
Stay tuned for any warnings!

Still not done

2008-06-16T19:35:00.004-04:00

Our watch has expired, and just when it looked like things were going to calm down, storms began to explode again. There is currently a storm hitting Cortland with another about to strike Groton. These storms may contain gusty winds and some hail, as has been the case all day. I'll simply update this post if any warnings get issued.

EDIT: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8:30PM FOR TOMPKINS, CORTLAND AND SOUTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES.

On a wider scale, thunderstorms have fired along what appears to be a mini-cold front caused by a lake breeze off of Lake Ontario. These storms will continue to fire up for the next hour or two. It is hard to say if they will survive long into the night. Stay tuned.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

2008-06-16T13:40:00.002-04:00

A storm has been tracking across northern Tompkins County and has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Groton. This storm has the potential for hail, strong winds and frequent lightning.

I am working at Cornell this summer, and, being on the 11th floor of one of the buildings, I got a great look at this storm as it crossed Cayuga Lake. There was a good deal of cloud-to-ground lightning, so watch out!

Here we go!

2008-06-16T12:40:00.003-04:00

The 12:30PM Update of the SPC Outlooks has the moderate risk area bumped to the northwest. This shift puts the border of the moderate risk area right overhead. Our hail remains at 30% with hatching, which, if you didn't read today's first blog, indicates a 10+% chance of 2" hail or larger.

An hour ago, the radar was quiet. Now, thunderstorms have fired all across the state. Already a few of these have Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with them. As the afternoon progresses, more storms will develop and become severe.

Stay tuned for updates if any severe storms approach!

Watch Issued

2008-06-16T11:36:00.003-04:00

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #550 has been issued. This is quite a massive watch, encompasing most of New York and about 70% of Pennsylvania. With a watch that large, probablities aren't overly helpful for local forecasts. Nonetheless, there is an 80% chance of 10+ wind damage reports and a 70% chance of 10+ hail reports within the watch area. The watch runs until 7PM.

There really hasn't been anything developing yet, thought there is one shower in Western New York that has popped up, so I am expecting more storms to fire during the next couple of hours. The next SPC outlook will be out by 12:30. It will be interesting to see if they change anything.

Its going to be close

2008-06-16T06:25:00.006-04:00

The severe weather threat is already ending up higher than I anticipated last night. For the second time in a week, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk area for portions of the Northeast. At this time, we are just to the northwest of this area, with the boundary running from southwest to northeast through about Binghamton. Here are the hail (top) and wind (bottom) outlooks for today from the SPC. The hail one in particular has me concerned, since we are on the edge of the hatched area, which means a 10% or greater chance of hail over 2" in diameter.

8AM Edit: The visible image shows clearing skies behind this morning's area of rain. Since this satellite image was taken before the sun got very high in the sky, the dark area over Western New York is where the sun will be out. That was the key that was going to make or break us: sun. Yesterday, I wasn't calling for much if any sun. But now, things have changed.

I will continue to monitor this situation as it develops. Stay tuned for the latest! The next outlook from the SPC will come around 9:30, so check back closer to 10 for an update.

10AM Update: The newest SPC outlooks remain the same for our area. That keeps us right on the edge of the 30% wind and 30% hail lines, along with the edge of the hatched hail area.

6PM Update

2008-06-10T18:01:00.002-04:00

Thunderstorms are currently moving into the area, developing as they approach. In just about 15 minutes, a cell started to form by Ithaca, then moved just south of Groton. By this time, it had prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Winds both in and out of these storms will be gusty, with the stronger winds of course being in the storms. There are no tornado warnings in effect at this time. Here is the latest radar image:

These storms will continue to move through during the next hour or so. Stay away from windows, stay inside and, if you have wind damage, feel free to send me a report!

A New Weather Watch

2008-06-10T15:02:00.005-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central New York and points south until 10 PM. This watch replaces the tornado watch that has been in effect. This doesn't mean the tornado threat is totally gone, however. A lot of the severe weather composite index values that are used to predict severe weather show a semi-tornadic environment overhead. However, wind damage and hail will continue to be the main threats for the rest of the day.

Onto the radar now. As you can see, thunderstorms have again developed to our west into a bit of a broken line. Like this morning, these aren't severe. However, I expect these to strengthen as they head into the more favorable atmosphere sitting over us.

Stay tuned throughout the afternoon and evening as round 2 begins!

Not Done Yet

2008-06-10T13:06:00.004-04:00

One round of severe storms has exited the region and pressed eastward. This line didn't look like it was going to do much for Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Cayuga counties, but right as it got here, it exploded rapidly. Just shows what a little bit extra heating and humidity can do for storms, as tempertures before the storms had reached into the mid 80's. These storms have caused quite a few hail and wind reports, as expected. Here is the storm report map as of 1:02PM.

Tempertures are back into the low 80's after about a 15 degree drop with those storms. That means we are certainly still have fuel to work with for the rest of the day. Thunderstorms are also now starting to develop well to our west along the cold front in Ohio. They haven't been going for long, but are already looking strong and developing into a line. This is what I have expected to happen, so everything still looks favorable for another, possibly more intense, line of storms later this evening.

In between then and now, additional storms are possible, also with damaging winds and hail. I'll continue to update through the day, so stay tuned!

SEVERE T-STORM WARNING

2008-06-10T11:23:00.002-04:00

The southern portion of that line of storms has exploded very rapidly over Western Tompkins county. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings now run from Lake Ontario to Pennsylvania, including the Groton area. A large cell is about to hit Groton with lightning, strong winds and some hail likely. Take Cover now!

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED

2008-06-10T10:09:00.004-04:00

Tompkins County, along with all of Central and Eastern New York is now under a TORNADO WATCH until 6PM tonight!

A little known fact about watches is that they each have probablities of certain severe weather events occuring. For this watch, there is over a 95% chance of 10 or more wind damage reports, as well as over a 95% chance of 10 or more hail reports and a 40% chance of 2 or more tornado reports. That means the main threat is still damaging winds, but tornadoes are becoming an increasing threat.

An update on that line of storms: The northern portion appears to be the stronger part, with numerous warnings now in effect. Stay tuned for more updates on these storms.

Also, the National Weather Service confirmed my belief about multiple lines of storms today when they issued this statement at 10:05AM:

... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today...

An initial line of thunderstorms will cross The Finger lakes
region... the twin tiers... the Mohawk Valley... and the southern Tug
Hill region this morning... generally between 930 am and 12 noon.
This includes Elmira... Corning... Syracuse... Utica... Binghamton...
and Montrose. Localized strong damaging winds and hail are
possible late this morning.

This afternoon... another round of thunderstorms is anticipated.
Additional lines of storms are expected to cross the area... generally
between 2 and 6 PM. Once again... strong winds and hail are the
primary threats.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... or local media outlets... for the
latest updates. Watches and/or warnings may well be issued later
today.

Pre-frontal Storms

2008-06-10T09:33:00.005-04:00

The first storms of the day have been ongoing across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York. There have been occasional warnings with these storms, so they have the potential to be severe. However, this isn't the main event today. The cold front still sits way back to the west over Southern Ontario, Western Ohio and Eastern Indiana. On the radar image below, you can see the line of storms along the front begining to form just east of Michigan.

The Storm Prediction Center also updated their outlooks and maps (which I don't have graphics for at this time...). We are still in the moderate risk zone, but the core of it was shifted to the east. All this means to me is the SPC is thinking the line will for a little further east. While I agree with extending the zone further east into Vermont and New England, I am not so sure I agree with cutting the Western Finger Lakes out. We will see.

9:50AM Update: The Storm Prediction Center is now saying they will issue a watch shortly for our area. Stay tunde for updates as the watch is issued!

MOD. RISK!

2008-06-10T06:01:00.004-04:00

A very serious situation is unfolding today for our area, with the Storm Prediction Center placing us under a MODERATE RISK zone. To put this in perspective as to how rare this type of severe weather outlook is for our area, I can only remember 1 other time during the lifetime of grotonweather.com that we have been under a moderate risk, and NEVER have we been under one to start the day! I do have to say, however, that I was thinking last night that this would happen. Here are the areas under the moderate risk (pink in the top image) because of the wind threat (red in the bottom image).

As I have been indicating the past 24 hours, everything is coming together for a major severe weather outbreak. Hot, humid air is and has been in place. This will interact with a cold front and trough of low pressure that will progress eastward through the day. The final piece to the puzzle will be the strong jet stream winds. The thunderstorms that explode later this morning across Western and Central New York will be able to tap into these winds. Winds in some of the storms today could exceed 70, even 80 or 90 mph. The tornado threat is a tad higher than I thought last night as well. I will be updating throughout the day, so make sure to stay tuned here for the most up-to-date, in depth forecasts and outlooks you will find on the web for this area!

(Your normal forecast will be coming by 8AM. To find the forecast, hover over the "Grotonweather" tab in the menu above, then click the "Homepage" link!)

Round Two Begins!

2008-06-08T16:22:00.005-04:00

The clusters of thunderstorms that moved through earlier today have shifted well off to the south and east. While these storms stabilized the atmosphere for a while, in the long run, they only made things worse. Over an inch of rain fell in Groton earlier. Now, with the sun back out, that inch of rain is returning to the atmosphere. Dewpoints have shot up into the mid to upper 70's, making it feel over 90 despite temperatures being in the low to mid 80's. All this moisture is fueling another round of thunderstorms which is just now starting to explode.

Right now, most of these storms are in the southern counties of New York, but there is a large cell over Lake Ontario as well. Further rapid development of storms is certainly possible over the next few hours. There is currently (4:30) a small cell near Trumansburg that will have to be watched for rapid development in the next hour or so. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect as well.

Looking into this evening and overnight, there is a very strong line of severe thunderstorms over Michigan right now. These storms have a severe thunderstorm watch for Michigan, and a torando watch issued by the Canadian Weather Service for Southern Ontario. It is hard to say if this line will hold together long enough to effect us, but it is something I will be watching through the evening.

On this radar image (from weathertap.com) you can see the numerous cells firing up in New York, along with the line of storms in Michigan marching eastward.

Storm Reports, May Stats

2008-06-01T10:51:00.004-04:00

While there wasn't a whole lot of widespread severe weather yesterday across Central and Western New York, the one area that did seem to get hit hardest was in fact our area. Most of the grotonweather.com forecast range (Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Cayuga Counties) ended up under a severe thunderstorm warning at one point or another as two separate severe storms crossed the area.

The first storm tracked across Southern Tompkins and Cortland Counties in the early afternoon, well ahead of the cold front. This storm produced numerous hail and wind reports, especially once it moved into Broome and Chenango Counties. The second storm came through at about 6pm. This storm took out trees in Cortland and Locke, while hitting West Groton with 3/4" hail, with some smaller hail in Groton.

I have overlayed yesterday's storm reports on Google Earth and marked a few of the towns for reference. The blue circles with a "W" represent a wind damage report, while the green circles with an "H" represent hail. Not a huge outbreak by any means, but considering the lack of severe storms elsewhere, we got hit decently hard.

Onto other things now...did you think May seemed abnormally cold? Well, if you did, you are correct. In fact, the differences between this May and last May are quite staggering. Our average high this May was a very chilly 64.0 degrees. This ended up 12 degrees colder than last May, which averaged 76.1 degrees. In fact, there were only 3 days in which our high this past month reached 76 degrees! (Those days were the 7th at 76, the 26th at 82, and the 31st and 76). Our warmest day this May was 82, much lower than last year's 92 and even lower than 2006's 95 degree day. On the whole, it was the coldest May on my records (2003-present) by three degrees. We also had our coldest nights, with our average lows falling below 40 for the first time.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

2008-05-31T17:54:00.002-04:00

Groton and areas north and east are under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING! A thunderstorm currently over Southern Cayuga county is strengthening. This storm may contain hail and damaging winds. Take proper precautions.

This storm also has some rotation with it, and I am a little concerned with the shape of the storm. While I doubt it will warrant a tornado warning, be sure to keep checking back in the next 30 mins or so in case it does!

Near Miss South: 2:20 update

2008-05-31T14:15:00.002-04:00

The storm continues to develop and strengthen and is currently located southeast of Ithaca. For Groton, all this storm will give us is some rumbles of thunder, which have been ongoing for some time now.

For those of you in Southern Tompkins and Cortland Counties, however, you can expect frequent lightning, very heavy rain, strong winds and maybe some hail. There is still no warning with this storm, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one issued soon. Also, the rotation, while still weak, has increased slightly.

Strong Storm Developing: 1:50PM Update

2008-05-31T13:43:00.003-04:00

A thunderstorm has really blown up over Schuyler County in the last 40 minutes. As of this posting, the storm is not severe, but has prompted a "Special Weather Statement" for Tompkins County.

This storm has some weak rotation with it, along with very heavy downpours and possibly some hail. It looks as if the path of this storm will take it south of the Groton area, but Ithaca should get the storm by about 2:20. I will update on this storm in 20-30 minutes, or sooner if a warning is issued.

New site is functioning!

2008-05-27T22:40:00.003-04:00

The new site is up and running...at least for the most part. There are still one or two areas that are not fully functioning. For one, the offer for advertising your own business/site on my site is not ready yet, so those links do not work. Also, I am going to be getting new forecast icons, but I don't have them either. If anything else is not working as you think it should, please let me know. You can do this by scrolling to the very bottom of the page and clicking the "contact me" link.

Memorial Day Storms

2008-05-26T10:42:00.002-04:00

The new website isn't quite ready to be launched yet, but there is some important weather to talk about today.

There are some clouds moving through this morning along a warm front. This front will bring us some real summer like weather for the rest of the day. Heat and humidity will move in this afternoon. Highs should end up in the mid 80's with dew points in the mid 60's making for a rather sultry day compared to the weather we have been having. As this front passes through, there could be a shower or thunderstorm.

However, later in the evening, say after 4pm, there will be another chance for thunderstorms to develop in the warm, moist atmosphere. These are the storms that have prompted the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma to put us in a "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms. The main threats from these storms will likely be damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and flash flooding, though an isolated weak tornado can't be ruled out.

These storms will be forming in the "warm sector" well ahead of a cold front. That front will move through overnight and early tomorrow morning, likely with another batch of showers and thunderstorms. However, the most likely time for severe storms will run from roughly 4pm-midnight tonight. Stay tuned for updates through the evening for storms that become severe! And hopefully I will get the new site up by this evening as well!

STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR TOMPKINS COUNTY

2008-04-25T17:15:00.003-04:00

NUMEROUS STATES OF EMERGENCY ARE IN EFFECT, INCLUDING FOR TOMPKINS COUNTY, DUE TO THE EXTREME FIRE DANGER!

Tompkins County:
Under State of Emergency through April 30th. All outdoor burning and recreational outdoor fires are banned. The ban does not include controlled cooking fires when the fire is in a contained, controlled fireplace, barbecue grill or cooking pit. Individuals cooking outdoors must at all times have readily available the proper equipment to extinguish the fire.

Other counties are taking precautions as well:

Cayuga County:
A State of Emergency is in effect through May 4th, but could be extended. A burn ban is in effect.

Cortland County:
No open burning is permitted until further notice.

Jefferson County:
From Tuesday, April 22 at noon through Sunday, April 27 at noon, no one in the county is allowed to set an open fire, including burn barrels. This order supersedes all burning permits, subject to extension. A violation of the order is a class B misdemeanor. Burning of campfires in licensed campgrounds is allowed.

Oswego County:
Under State of emergency with a burn ban until further notice (no open burning).

Severe Thunderstorm 6PM

2008-04-23T18:12:00.003-04:00

A broken line of thunderstorms is coming through Seneca and Cayuga Counties right now. One of the cells in this broken line has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This part of the storm looks like it will head southeast towards Moravia within the next 45 minutes before heading into Northern Cortland County. The main threat from this storm appears to be some strong winds, as the storm attributes (the blue circles on the radar image below) are only indicating minimal hail. It looks like the worst will stay north of Groton.

(Click to enlarge)

Historic Snow Storm: April 16, 2007

2008-04-16T17:20:00.007-04:00

Boy...what a difference a year can make! We are in the midst of a stretch of absolutley lovely and warm weather with temperatures in the upper 60's today and 70s on the way.

However...April the 16th isn't always so nice. In fact, if you remember, it was just last year that winter came roaring back to life on the 16th, giving us the largest 24-hour snowfall that I have recorded (since Christmas 2002).

So lets take a moment to revisit this historic snow storm, which saw Groton get 18", Locke a national attention grabbing 23", and a couple of my videos posted on Accuweather.com senior meteorologist Henry Margusity's blog.

Looking back on my own blog, I first mentioned the possibility of a storm on April 11th. By the 13th everything looked like a go. I remember this day very clearly...it was a Friday. In school, I kept telling people we would have no school Monday or Tuesday from a snow storm. Of course few believed me at first...I mean snow days in mid-April? However, we did get snow days both days.

By 10AM Monday morning, the storm was in full force blasting us with heavy snow. Here is what it looked like Monday morning:

The snow was still coming down by the afternoon. One of the things that amazes me looking back at that post is the radar. Notice how most of the state was getting rain at this point...but we had enough cold air in the Finger Lakes to remain snow. I find that so ironic because we couldn't get a single storm to keep the cold air in all winter long this year...even in the dead of winter! In fact...this April storm gave us more snow than probably our two or three largest (non-lake effect) snow events this past year!

The snow was a very heavy snow and caused a good deal of problems with tree damage. Within a couple of days, the snow was gone, and I got a chance to go out into the woods and take some pictures of the tree damage that occurred, especially to pine trees.

I also like to point out the fact that just three weeks later, on May 9th, we hit 90 degrees.

If you want to read more about this storm, Accuweather's Jesse Ferrell also blogged about the storm today. Of course, he doesn't mention Groton (but he does mention Locke!) and takes a much more regional look at the storm, but it is a nice little post with an awesome map. Check it out.

Grotonweather.com Administrative Update:
I have been working on redesigning (again!) the grotonweather.com homepage. This is why I haven't gotten many of the links on the current homepage working again. I am very excited about the new design and a couple of new services I am going to be offering! I am having some new weather icons (not animated...sorry...) being made and will launch the new look once they are done. I am not sure when that will be though, so make sure you keep checking back!

Late Season Snow Storm Tonight!

2008-03-27T12:24:00.004-04:00

A late season snow storm is in store for the area tonight as low pressure moves to our south along a stalled frontal boundary. As this low moves along the front, cold air from Canada will advance south. Meanwhile, the low will throw moisture up into the cold air.

The precipitation will likely start as some rain later this afternoon and tonight. As that cold air moves in, however, it will change the rain to snow overnight. As is often the case with storms at the beginning and end of winter, the higher elevations will end up with more snow than the valleys. The models haven't been doing a good job with this storm so far; just yesterday they had us getting barely anything. However, they seem to be in better agreement with this morning's runs, and looking at the radars to our west, I think we are in for a decent snow. The map below is a little confusing since its hard to incorporate the elevation factor into the map. For downtown Groton, I would say 3 or 4 inches will fall. In the hills surrounding Groton, more like 5 or 6 inches. I think the highest amounts will be in the hills north, east and south of Cortland, especially down towards Binghamton. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone down there get 8-10", maybe even a foot!

Service Update, Storms ahead

2008-03-01T13:09:00.003-05:00

Thank you everyone for your patience over the past couple of days while I switched over hosting services. The homepage is back up, but I have decided to not link a good deal of the links to their respected pages just yet. I am going to be working on a bit of a redesigning of the page and I want to work on those other pages and update them before relinking them.

Also, last night, I launched a new website with a few of my fellow meteorology students. This site gives forecasts in a similar manner to grotonweather.com, with a 3-day forecast, forecast discussion, and hazards outlook for all of New York, which we split into 20 different sections to ensure local, accurate forecasting. The Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Cayuga area is simply linked to grotonweather.com, but this site is great for more regional forecasting! Check it out and let me know what you think!

www.empirestateweather.com

Now, for more of a long range outlook! A very stormy week is coming up next week, with at least 2 different storm systems moving in. By now, I am sure you are becoming familiar with how accurate models are even just a few days out when it comes to large storm systems. I just wanted to mention some of the trends I have been seeing over the past couple of days. First off, while the first storm this week was projected to shoot well to our west, the models are once again bringing it closer to us, with some runs even taking it to the east. This is a very similar trend to what occurred last week. Late last week, the models had a storm tracking to our west, brining rain and warm air in. By Saturday and Sunday, the track had shifted to our south and east and we ended up getting 8" of snow. Now, this isn't the same type of storm system, but it will have to be watched over the next few model runs. Now, later in the week, another storm will ride up the coast and possibly turn into a major nor 'easter. The models have been consistently showing this storm for a few days now, so it too will have to be watched closely. If it becomes anything, it would be later in the week into the weekend. By no means is any of this guaranteed to happen, I am just putting the latest trends out there for you!

Friday Morning Forecast

2008-02-29T08:23:00.002-05:00

Here is your forecast for today (it will be quick since I am running behind a bit this morning...)

Today: Increasing clouds with snow moving in this evening. Highs near 30
Tonight: Light snow. Lows in the mid 20's. Breezy.
Saturday: Light snow. Highs near 35.
Sat. Night: Clearing. Lows in the low 20's.
Sunday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 30's.

Snow Forecast: Through Saturday

2-5"

Status update: I believe the transfer is complete. Now I just have to upload all the files and get everything working again! I should be up by tomorrow!

As for the other site, www.empirestateweather.com, we will be up later tonight! Check back this evening!

Service Announcement, Forecast update 3:30PM

2008-02-28T15:11:00.002-05:00

Hello everyone. If you were not aware, I am changing hosting providers currently. As a result, the normal homepage is not available at this time. Barring any set back or bugs (because we all know things rarely work as they are supposed to and SOMETHING always seems to comes up...), I will hopefully have the normal site back tomorrow afternoon. In the mean time, I will be forecasting and giving updates here!

Your Forecast:

Today: Sun and clouds with a few flurries possible. Highs in the mid teens.
Tonight: Flurries diminishing. Lows in the mid single digits before rising.
Friday: Increasing clouds with some flurries in the afternoon. Highs near 30.
Friday Night: Light snow moving in. Lows in the mid 20's.
Saturday: Light snow, especially in the morning. Highs near 30.

Forecast Discussion:

Some lake effect snow flurries continue across the region this afternoon. Those should diminish overnight as the winds shift. This will also bring in some warmer air overnight ahead of a clipper system. This system will bring a general 2-5" of snow Friday night into Saturday. A new series of storm systems comes in for the early part of next week. This storm will likely be warm enough for more rain than anything else, but it is still too early to tell.

IMPORTANT SERVICE MESSAGE

2008-02-27T23:04:00.002-05:00

Hey everyone....the website may be not be available for some time beginning tomorrow night! I am changing web hosting services and in the process of changing everything over, I will be off line for a while. I should be back up by Saturday. In the mean time, I will forecast and give updates on here, so if the other site isn't working, check here! Thanks!

~Drew

What happened...or rather, why it didn't

2008-02-27T13:09:00.006-05:00

I've done some thinking and analyzing this morning, and I think I know where I went wrong with my forecasts last night. Lets start by looking at the last radar image I posted.

As you can see by the radar loop from last night, the snow developed mostly over Western Pennsylvania, West Virgina, and Eastern Kentucky, with lake snows further northwest over Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. Now we did and are still getting the lake enhanced snow, but the other area of snow never formed. Why? The answer lies in the two images I made below:

The area where the snow broke out was just west of and along the spine of the Appalachian mountains. These mountains acted as a lifting mechanism. As the winds hit the mountains, they had no where to go but up. Rising air cools, and with all the moisture left over from the storm, condensed into clouds and moderate to heavy snow. This is called upslope snow. Since there is not nearly the elevation gradient over our area as there is to the south, there was not enough lift to cause a secondary outbreak outside of the light lake effect. This just goes to show that there are so many factors that go into forecasting, which is why it is such a tough job.

And just in case you were wondering how much snow fell as a result of the upslope effect last night in the mountains, Accuweather.com meteorologist Jesse Ferrell put together a small list of some totals on his blog, which you can see here.

One other note about this storm. I have had over 800 hits on my website since Monday, including 571 yesterday! I just wanted to thank all of you for using my site and making it well worth my time. I really enjoy this and I am so happy that you are finding it useful! Thank you again!

Now, one final thing for now. For the past month or so, I have been working on a new website with a group of meteorology students here at SUNY Oswego. This site will give weather forecasts in a similar format to grotonweather.com for clusters of 2-5 counties. This will be a great source for specific weather information outside of our area. I am both the chief meteorologist of this new site, along with the forecaster for the Finger Lakes region. I have set this site up so that Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Cayuga are in a cluster. What does this mean for the future of grotonweather.com? No changes! I simply using grotonweather.com for that region, keeping everything the same for you. This new site will be launching this weekend and will have the URL www.empirestateweather.com, so check it out come Saturday!

Midnight Storm Update

2008-02-26T23:52:00.002-05:00

Well...the backlash snow just doesn't want to develop. The snows over Ohio and other areas to our southwest are rapidly weakening as well. I'm left no choice than to think that the whole second part of this storm that I was counting on simply isn't going to develop. As a result, snow totals will end up about where they are now or maybe a bit higher. Snowday? I now have to reverse my predictions and say that there will be school tomorrow.

I guess there isn't really much else to say about this storm....

9:30 PM Storm Update

2008-02-26T21:10:00.003-05:00

The heaviest of the precipitation is racing very rapidly into northern New England and the worst part of the storm has ended over our area. However, all that wrap around moisture I was talking about in my last post is sticking around and will continue to keep the light to at times moderate snows around overnight and tomorrow morning. The winds will continue to increase as well and the temperatures will drop overnight as well. This will allow for considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow, so even when it is not snowing or doing so lightly, travel will be difficult.

I am not quite as confident about a snowday now, but I am going to stick with my original forecast and say it will happen. Just because the heavy snow is over doesn't mean the effects of this storm won't continue well into the day tomorrow.

Here is the latest radar. I didn't bother to color-code it because it is a bite easier to see the different intensities of precipitation on the unmodified version. As you can see, all that snow to our southwest is still sitting there despite the storm being well into New England. As the main precipitation shield continues to lift away from our area, I am expecting a similar set up to form over our area; you can already see it happening in Western New York. Generally, only another 1-4" can be expected tonight with a few locally higher amounts. But again, the wind is going to be the more significant feature of this storm here on out.

PS: I am going to try to do one more update tonight before I go to bed, so if you are still up, check back around or just after midnight!