Weekend Nor'Easter?

I have already been asked a few times about the potential for a big storm this weekend. Here is the scoop on this storm:

Low pressure will develop of the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow morning and move up the coast through the day Friday and into Saturday. Because the cold front came through already, we will see all snow form the storm. The good news (if you don't want snow) is that the heaviest of the snow will be well off to our east. However, this is going to be a large storm, so the amounts will creep up, even over here. As of now, it looks like 3-6" is a good bet over most of central New York, with 1-3" west or Rochester and 6-12" over the Catskills and eastern Adirondacks. The snow will start during the night Friday and continue into Saturday.

"Is it over?"

Is it over? That is the comment I got on my guestbook earlier this week. The forecast of temperatures in the 40's and 50's for most of next week does give reasons to wonder. However, before you all get too excited for Spring, Winter is not quite done yet. Yes, it will be warm this coming week and the snow pack will decrease greatly, especially come Monday and Tuesday. However, a frontal system will bring winter back towards the end of the week. The clash of warm and cold air could make for some interesting weather, so it will be worth watching.

But, even beyond next weekend, it does look like winter will start to retreat. Just looking at the past few mid-late Marches, things usually quickly improve after the first week of March. Last year, by the end of March, we were having thunderstorms and temperatures as high as 78! On the flip side, the Blizzard of '93, which dumped 3-4 feet on the area in 1993, took place in mid-March!

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead tonight....Day Light Savings time begins again!

Ice or Floods?

I am sticking to my guns, even though every local weather source I use says there will be a good amount of ice. Temperatures are warmer now than they were projected to be, and, with such a close call already, I think the extra few degrees should keep up out of the ice. Keep in mind, I am just using my gut feelings (although accuweather, which is more national, also says rain, not ice), so I have no idea if I will be right or wrong! As a result, I ask you to check back every so often....if it looks likes things will change, I will update! The most likely update times are as follows: 6, 8, 9 and 10PM. Here is the complete forecast:

Precipitation, which I think will be rain, will move in later tonight. Temperatures should still be above freezing, meaning whatever falls will not ice up. The temperature should rise a bit over night, keeping us in the rain until it tapers off tomorrow morning.

Don't be too surprised if there is a bit of thunder too! This is a very powerful storm system that is producing severe thunderstorms as far north as southern Michigan, which at this time does have a severe thunderstorm watch and warnings! I have never seen severe weather over such a large area (Michigan right down to the Gulf Coast, where there are some of the highest tornado probabilities I have seen), so far north this early in the year! It is quite amazing!

The rain will come down hard at times, especially if we get a thunderstorm. This, along with snow melt and a frozen ground, could cause flooding. If you are driving, and there is water covering the road, DO NOT drive through it! There is no way to tell how deep the water is and just a few inches can put your life in jeopardy!

So, as a quick recap: IF I am right, no ice, lots of rain, maybe some minor flooding and no day off tomorrow! Lets see how I do!