Ok guys, here we go. The National Weather Service has the area under a Winter Weather Advisory, a choice I disagree with. They are still insisting the snow will mix with sleet, then change to freezing rain and even some rain. They are currently projecting 2-5" of snow, with up to 0.25" of ice. However, it is so cold (in the teens and single digits) that I do not see enough warm air intruding to change that over to freezing rain, and certainly not plain rain. There may be some sleet tomorrow evening and overnight, but I think that majority of this will be snow.
Because of this, I am going to keep my snow map the same. I am going to stick with my gut and still say 5-7" of snow and sleet. The snow will start overnight tonight, closer to morning and continue right through Monday morning. There will likely be a lull tomorrow during the afternoon as the low transfer's its energy off the coast. It should pick up overnight again though. The winds will be strong as well, blowing the snow around.
As for a snow-day Monday, I am not totally sold one way or the other yet, but if I had to say something, I would say no school Monday in Groton. We'll see how this develops tomorrow, so make sure to check back!
On a side note, if you are ever need a forecast for areas from Syracuse north to Watertown and east to Old Forge, I have launched yet another website with a few of my fellow weather nerds, so be sure to check it out! www.geocities.com/east_lowx
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Friday, November 30, 2007
Friday's Snow Map
Here is my latest snowfall map. I probably won't be changing this much from here out unless something drastic happens. Groton is in the 5-8" range, though sort of on the edge...so expect probably 5 or 6 inches. Keep checking back tomorrow for updates!
Friday Afternoon Storm Thoughts
I actually do not have much new information on the upcoming storm. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for most of New York, except the counties under the jurisdiction of the NWS in Binghamton, which includes the entire region. I would bet they have not issued them yet because they still tend to think it will rain.
This will not happen...it may sleet for a while, but it will not rain. The models may say it will rain, but from the start, the models have not handled this set up well. For example, the models predicted temperatures in the teens and 20's across the Dakotas this morning....instead, they were 10-20 colder in the single digits! This error is caused by a couple of things that are carried over into what the models say for us this weekend. So while the NWS says snow, then rain, then snow again, I assure you it will not rain.
Other than that little rant, there isn't much new to say right now. I don't think the higher amounts on my map last night will occur, so I will be lowering them on my next map. However, the minimum amount for Groton should stay at 5"...I just think 10" is way too much to expect.
Look for another map later tonight between 5 and 7PM!
This will not happen...it may sleet for a while, but it will not rain. The models may say it will rain, but from the start, the models have not handled this set up well. For example, the models predicted temperatures in the teens and 20's across the Dakotas this morning....instead, they were 10-20 colder in the single digits! This error is caused by a couple of things that are carried over into what the models say for us this weekend. So while the NWS says snow, then rain, then snow again, I assure you it will not rain.
Other than that little rant, there isn't much new to say right now. I don't think the higher amounts on my map last night will occur, so I will be lowering them on my next map. However, the minimum amount for Groton should stay at 5"...I just think 10" is way too much to expect.
Look for another map later tonight between 5 and 7PM!
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