The severe threat is continuing across the area, even though our watch has been canceled and the first round has moved well off to the east. In fact, the SPC is watching a large area of New York and Pennsylvania for a potential watch...and this time, it could be a tornado watch. Right now, most storms are over Pennsylvania. There have been 2 tornado reports down there, and there is another tornado warning out right now. None of those storms will effect us though. However, there is a severe thunderstorm cluster southeast of Buffalo, with additional storms over Lake Erie and north of Lake Ontario. Even though the daytime heating is over, the conditions in the atmosphere are such that the amount of instability will possibly even increase as the evening goes on.
Stay tuned...next update should come by 9pm. Check www.weather.gov/bgm to see if a watch has been issued for the area.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #570
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of Western and Central New York until 6pm. The main threat the SPC is outlining is damaging winds. Here are the complete risks from the watch:
Tornadoes
Wind
Hail
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
And the counties in the watch:
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes | Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes | Low (5%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events | Mod (40%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots | Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events | Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches | Low (10%) |
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events | High (70%) |
And the counties in the watch:
Risks Upgraded
There have been a couple of changes in the forecast this morning as things area already rapidly evolving. Probably the most significant of these changes is that, instead of all the clouds and rain the models had been forecasting for us this morning, skies are clear. This is causing the atmosphere to destabilize quicker and more intensely than had been forecasted. Another thing to look at is the radar. Thunderstorms are widespread just west of Buffalo, and already, there are some storms popping out ahead of this main area...so the question of whether or not storms will form is out the window.
The Storm Prediction Center has us in a 30-30-5% risk for wind-hail-tornadoes, respectively. All three of those are on the upper end of their 'slight' risk category. After looking at a couple things, I moved my hail and win up to moderate, and kept tornadoes at slight. Since storms are already firing, I moved the thunderstorm risk all the way up, which the NWS in Binghamton also did on their threat outlooks.
Here is what I am expecting for each threat:
Thunderstorms: Extreme-
Widespread thunderstorms can be expected with almost everywhere getting a storm. Frequent lightning should accompany the storms, and a fair number of them will likely be severe.
Wind: Moderate-
With the sun out this morning and strong upper level winds, wind damage is likely somewhere in Central New York, with some possibility of widespread damaging winds. 3 to 7 damaging wind reports are possible in the Grotonweather forecast area (Tompkins, S. Cayuga and Cortland Counties), with more elsewhere in Central New York. Should a widespread wind event evolve, this will be increased to high.
Hail: Moderate-
With extra instablity from the sun this morning, and indications of favorable hail formation from both the models, and current observations, hail could become a major factor today. 3 to 7 severe (0.75" of bigger) hail reports in the forecast area is possible, with more elsewhere in Central New York. Hail sizes should stay below 1.5", but an isolated storm could produce up to 2" hail. An upgrade to a high risk is not expected at this time.
Tornadoes: Slight-
Little changes to the tornado forecast have been made. A tornado somewhere in Western and Central New York seems almost likely. Multiple tornadoes could be possible, but this certainty isn't enough for a moderate risk at the time. However, with strong southeast winds at the surface, winds at low levels out of the southwest, and upper level winds coming in from the west, the threat for tornadoes will need to be watched closely.
The Storm Prediction Center has us in a 30-30-5% risk for wind-hail-tornadoes, respectively. All three of those are on the upper end of their 'slight' risk category. After looking at a couple things, I moved my hail and win up to moderate, and kept tornadoes at slight. Since storms are already firing, I moved the thunderstorm risk all the way up, which the NWS in Binghamton also did on their threat outlooks.
Here is what I am expecting for each threat:
Thunderstorms: Extreme-
Widespread thunderstorms can be expected with almost everywhere getting a storm. Frequent lightning should accompany the storms, and a fair number of them will likely be severe.
Wind: Moderate-
With the sun out this morning and strong upper level winds, wind damage is likely somewhere in Central New York, with some possibility of widespread damaging winds. 3 to 7 damaging wind reports are possible in the Grotonweather forecast area (Tompkins, S. Cayuga and Cortland Counties), with more elsewhere in Central New York. Should a widespread wind event evolve, this will be increased to high.
Hail: Moderate-
With extra instablity from the sun this morning, and indications of favorable hail formation from both the models, and current observations, hail could become a major factor today. 3 to 7 severe (0.75" of bigger) hail reports in the forecast area is possible, with more elsewhere in Central New York. Hail sizes should stay below 1.5", but an isolated storm could produce up to 2" hail. An upgrade to a high risk is not expected at this time.
Tornadoes: Slight-
Little changes to the tornado forecast have been made. A tornado somewhere in Western and Central New York seems almost likely. Multiple tornadoes could be possible, but this certainty isn't enough for a moderate risk at the time. However, with strong southeast winds at the surface, winds at low levels out of the southwest, and upper level winds coming in from the west, the threat for tornadoes will need to be watched closely.
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