SEVERE WARNING!

Northern Tompkins County, and then probably Cortland County, is in for a doozey of a storm. There is a ton of lightning with this one, and hail and strong winds are possible as well. Flash flooding is also a concern with the heavy rain. Take cover now!

Evening Severe Threat

The severe threat is continuing across the area, even though our watch has been canceled and the first round has moved well off to the east. In fact, the SPC is watching a large area of New York and Pennsylvania for a potential watch...and this time, it could be a tornado watch. Right now, most storms are over Pennsylvania. There have been 2 tornado reports down there, and there is another tornado warning out right now. None of those storms will effect us though. However, there is a severe thunderstorm cluster southeast of Buffalo, with additional storms over Lake Erie and north of Lake Ontario. Even though the daytime heating is over, the conditions in the atmosphere are such that the amount of instability will possibly even increase as the evening goes on.

Stay tuned...next update should come by 9pm. Check www.weather.gov/bgm to see if a watch has been issued for the area.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #570

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of Western and Central New York until 6pm. The main threat the SPC is outlining is damaging winds. Here are the complete risks from the watch:

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (10%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

And the counties in the watch: