Why we should have a Winter Storm Warning, not an Advisory!

Note: This post is not intended to be a rant, but this is important and needs to be said.

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Central New York for tomorrow's Ice Storm. Now, I think they are making a mistake in only issuing an advisory. Instead, I believe we should currently be under a Winter Storm Warning. Here is why:

Firstly, the National Weather Service in State College, PA, has issued Winter Storm Warnings for all their counties, while Binghamton and Buffalo have only issued advisories:


Now the very interesting thing is, the warnings issued by State College are for average ice amounts of 1/4". What does our winter weather advisory say? Average ice amounts of 1/4". Why are they the same amounts, yet not the same statement? If anything, I would think it would be reversed since the State College area will not see snow to start and will change to rain quicker.

One may wonder why Binghamton is in the wrong, and not State College? The reason for this is the main reason I am making this post:

Just 2 days ago, on Tuesday, the NWS in Binghamton issued a freezing rain advisory for the area. It certainly was slippery out, but there was just a coating of ice, so it wasn't a huge deal. Now, just two days later, we have another advisory. Its natural, therefore, to think that this next event will be comparable to Tuesday's, when in fact Friday will be much worse than Tuesday! A quarter inch of ice is a LOT more than a coating. A quarter inch can make travel very dangerous, bring down branches and cause some power outages.

Again, I can not stress enough that this storm is nothing at all like Tuesday's! We really should be under a WINTER STORM WARNING!

Repeat Storm? Feb 17, 2006 & Jan 30, 2008

I have been tracking a storm system that will bring a high wind event to the area tomorrow, and the similarities between this storm and the storm responsible for the February 2006 windstorm are striking!

First off, lets go back 2 years and look at what the Feb. 17, 2006 windstorm did around the area: (All pictures taken by me.)


Tree down in my backyard. This photo was featured on News Channel 9 that evening.


Two towering pines down in Cayuga County.


This photo was taken in April 2007. The tree was partially uprooted during the Feb. 2006 windstorm, but continued to grow afterwards. You can see the new, upwards growth, making this the "bent tree".

Some other notable aspects include:
In Rochester, a lady was killed when a tree fell on her car.
Just outside of Union Springs, road signs were blown over.
At the Waterloo Premium Outlets, a stop light was blown right off its wires.
SUNY Oswego closed for the day because the wind was blowing construction materials around.

Needless to say, this was a pretty impressive wind storm. Now, on a much larger scale, the previous day, Feb. 16, 2006 had some impressive weather as well...weather that seems to be repeating itself today:

Let's start with Illinois. I distinctly remember having a substitute teacher 9th period that day, thus getting a study hall period. I remember being very excited because of the extreme weather in Illinois. In the northwest part of the state, there were Winter Storm, if not Blizzard Warnings in effect. A few counties to the south, a tornado watch! Here is what is going on today in Illinois:


You can see there are once again Blizzard Warnings (in red) to the north, while just a few counties south, a tornado watch is in effect. Now by the time I grabbed this image, the western edge of the watch had been allowed to expire. However, I re-shaded those areas back in the light yellow with white hatching to show how close the two extremes were.

Now lets look at the Storm Prediction Outlooks for Feb. 16, 2006 and today. Notice how similar they are!

Feb 16, 2006 8AM.....then Today 8AM


Feb 16, 2006 12:30PM.....then Today 12:30PM


Feb 16, 2006 3PM.....then Today 3PM

Obviously the outlooks are not exactly the same...but they are very, very close when talking about 2 events, 2 years apart! One last graphic to look at is the storm reports from that day (top) compared with todays [updated last: 7:15PM] (bottom):


One last note to make brings us back to Central New York. Tompkins county and points south and east had a Wind Advisory issued during the event, while counties north had a High Wind Warning. That is again the case today.

Now I am not saying that the exact same thing will happen tomorrow as did in Feb. 2006. I just thought the similarities were very interesting and I thought it would be a fun post to make! Hope you enjoyed it!