Late-May News and Updates

Hello Grotonweather Fans! I have been working very hard over the past couple of months on new and exciting things. I thought I would type up a blog to explain and promote some of these things.

First off is Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com), my new weather forecasting and consulting business. It is my hope that Finger Lakes Weather will become my career, helping local businesses, organizations, and the public with private and customizable weather forecasts. Finger Lakes Weather offers a variety of "Forecast Packages" tailored specifically towards various groups. For the spring, I offered a frost forecast package and was able to do some free-trial forecasting for Fox Run Vineyards and Three Brothers Vineyards, both on Seneca Lake. I have plans for a forecast package for construction workers. Right now, I am offering a special on vacation forecasting...but more on that later. Check out Finger Lakes Weather (the website again is www.fl-weather.com) and join the Finger Lakes Facebook page.

Next up is the Grotonweather Radar Page (www.grotonweather.com/radar). I recently got some top-notch radar software that is used by many meteorologists, especially storm chasers and others interested in thunderstorms. This software allows me to upload the radar to the website, so that is what I have done. Furthermore, I can display things such as areas of possible hail, rotation in thunderstorms, winds, and watches and warnings. I can also zoom right in on a storm down to street-level. So far, this has been a HUGE success with hundred of views despite an overall quiet thunderstorm season thusfar.

A severe thunderstorm approaches Ithaca.

Success does not come without price, however. And in this case, the price is measured in bandwidth. For those not familiar, bandwidth is basically the amount of data transferred to and from a website. The radar page uploads large image files every few minutes and quickly ate up my monthly bandwidth limit. That in turn forced me to purchase a more expensive hosting plan. My costs for running Grotonweather.com, not including time spent, is now approaching $200 a year.

Since 2006, when I started this operation, I have not received any revenue from my website. I am dedicated to keeping the website free. As costs continue to rise, something has to be done to offset some of these costs. Rather than charge money for Grotonweather and rather than flat out asking for donations, I decided a fund-raiser would be the best idea.

This is where the vacation forecasting package from Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com/vacation) comes back into play. As a fund-raiser, I am offering this service at a reduced price of just $10 per day or $50 per week. What does that entail? I will forecast for your travels to and from your vacation destination. I will forecast for you each morning of your trip so that you can know what to expect. If you have plans to engage in a certain activity- whether a day at the beach, a horseback ride, a bicycle tour...anything at all- I will forecast specifically for that activity and how the weather might impact your plans.

Furthermore, I will do severe weather forecasting for you. Say you are driving down the highway in Kansas and you see storms ahead. You can give me a call- no matter what time of day or night- and ask me if they are severe. Or, if you are enjoying your vacation (which you should be!), but storms (or a hurricane!) are coming, I will reach out to you and let you know.

I think this is a really neat and unique service and I believe it will help you make the most of your vacation. And it would really help relieve some of the costs I have. So please, consider signing up before June 10th to get the sale price. Even if your vacation is in August or later, book it now. Here is the link again: www.fl-weather.com/vacation

Moving on now, I am slowly working on a redesign of Grotonweather.com. I am really excited about how it looks so far. I did a survey a couple of weeks ago on displaying confidence and uncertainty in forecasts. The results were a tremendous help, so thank you to all who participated! I am now doing a smaller follow-up survey on a proposed forecast layout change. Please, if you could take a moment and fill it out, I would be very grateful. Here is the link: www.grotonweather.com/survey

If that was all not enough, I also started a new project on Facebook in an attempt to 1) combine my strong religious beliefs with my love for the weather 2) help those threatened by severe weather on a national level and 3) expand my forecasting beyond just the Finger Lakes. The result is the Storming Heaven Facebook group. If you believe in the power of prayer, go ahead an join up.

Back in late March, the Groton Public Library invited me to give an hour-long presentation. I presented on the Blizzard of 1993. Thank you to the library for the opportunity to speak! If you would like me to speak at your event or in your class (I've spoken at 3 schools since November), just send me an email or let me know on Facebook!

Thank you for reading this long post and for your continued support and interest in Grotonweather.com and the other projects I am working on. Stay tuned for more great features coming up...I am only getting started!!!

Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

 7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

Growing Flood Concern

 4:30PM Update-

Everything is progressing as I feared and a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Tompkins and southern Cayuga Counties. The ENTIRE Grotonweather forecast area is now under FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. This is going to be a long night for our area.

Wednesday- 2:15PM

So far, the Grotonweather.com tri-county area has more or less been spared of major problems, at least that I am aware of. Our neighbors to the south and east in Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties have not been as fortunate. Massive and widespread flooding has prompted Flash Flood EMERGENCIES for all three counties, with a State of Emergency also in effect for Broome County. Many roads are under water and bridges are in danger of washing out. This is a very dangerous and deadly situation in these areas. Under no circumstances should you be traveling to those areas tonight.

Here is what is really worrying me though...our luck could soon run out. In the image below, you can see a band of very heavy rain moving north through Pennsylvania right towards our area, which is outlined in red. The heavy rain to our east will continue to move to the northeast.

This band of rain extends all the way down past Washington DC and seems to only be increasing in size and intensity. If the flooding that is occurring to our south and east is any indication what a couple more inches of rain will do, our area may be in trouble.

I urge everyone to be extra vigilant this afternoon, evening and overnight. This is one of the most dangerous situations in Grotonweather history, if not for our immediate area, then for our neighbors directly nearby. DO NOT drive or walk in flood waters. If the water is flowing, chances are that you will need to be rescued. If you are told to evacuate, do so. In fact, if you live near a stream that is already full or near...be prepared to leave on a moment's notice. The time to prepare is now.

Please share this post with your friends and family.

Major Flooding Reported

9:45PM UPDATE: The rain in Pennsylvania has still not turned east and is making me very nervous. The rain is as far north as I-80 in Central Pennsylvania. I unfortunately will not be able to update again until after after 12:30am. I will post a quick update at the time though.

The back edge of the rain shield is beginning to move through the Grotonweather tri-county area and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. Rainfall totals are over 3" over most of the area, and radar estimates max out at 4-5" over southern Cortland County. In all honesty though, it appears the radar is under estimating the precipitation, so I would not be surprised if places like Marathon got even more.

As I have been saying, if these rainfall amounts occurred in our area, the ground would not be able to handle it. Unfortunately, that prediction has come true. Here are a couple of the flooding reports I have heard so far, all from Cortland County:

• NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN CORTLAND COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
• Route 11 between Reagen Road and Hoxie Gorge Road is CLOSED due to a mudslide
• Other mudslides have also been reported
• In Homer: The Haights Gulf Bridge is out.
• In McGraw: Roads IMPASSABLE throughout the village
• Red Cross Shelter for evacuees in the gymnasium at the County Office Building

I have not heard of any flood reports in Tompkins or Cayuga Counties, but that does not mean it is not occurring. I cannot stress enough, never drive through flooded roadways!! There are roads underwater in the area. DO NOT attempt to cross the flood waters. Doing so may put your life in jeopardy. If you are told to evacuate your home, do so!

As I stated at the start, the rain is ending. However, this does not mean the flood threat is ending! Runoff will continue to create flood problems into tomorrow. Area rivers are not expected to reach their peak heights until about this time Friday.

There may be some additional rain tonight. What is left of Tropical Storm Nicole is moving up through North Carolina and Virginia currently. The models have consistently kept this rain off to our east tonight. However, the fact that the models were too far east with today's storm, and the fact that the radar from that region looks very much like it did last night (namely a large area of rain seemingly heading right at us) has me a little nervous. I should stress, though, that we are not in the same sort of set up now, and, thankfully, I do see indications in the upper atmosphere that this rain will turn to our east, as the models indicate. If the models were wrong, which I do not think they are, and we were to get another couple inches of rain tonight, it would be disastrous. Again, I do not think this will be the case.

In summary...the rain may be ending, but the flooding will continue into tomorrow. Stay safe!!!!

Heavy Rain Update: 4PM

4:40PM UPDATE: FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR S.CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 7:15 PM.

Very heavy rain has been falling across the area and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. The regional radar loop is showing the rain tapering a bit to just showers, but not until far Southern Pennsylvania. Even then, there is still some heavy rain...just not as widespread. We very well may only be about half way through this event, and already rainfall totals are getting quite high. Take a look at some of these reports:

Game Farm Road Climate Station, Ithaca: 1.36" through 3PM
Freeville: 1.41" through 3:42 PM
Virgil: 1.54" through 3:42PM
Binghamton Airport: 1.36" through 3PM
Deposit, NY (Deleware County): 2.99" between 7AM-1:22PM

If we double these amounts, most places will be up around 3-4", as expected. There are no flood warnings in the Grotonweather.com forecast area, but most of the counties to our south, east and north are under flood warnings. Most of these flood warnings are for larger rivers in anticipation of this additional rain. No flash flood warnings are in effect yet.

There are actually some more intense areas of rain and wind within the main area of heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for Broome County a little while ago! I changed the scaling on the radar program I use to make these areas stick out. The brighter the color, the heavier the rain. The heaviest rain seems to be concentrated over the Finger Lakes, with some of those heavier cells moving through Cayuga and Cortland Counties, as indicated by the dark reds and pinks. It is where these cells hit that the greatest chance for rainfall totals over 4" will occur.

As we go into the evening hours, I am anticipating starting to see some flash flooding problems as we start to approach the upper limits of what the ground and streams can handle. I will get the word out about any Flash Flood Warnings as soon as possible. Remember, NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! If you come to a roadway, turn around. There is no telling just how deep the water is. Just 6" of quick moving water can sweep a car away! It is especially dangerous at night, when it is even harder to see flood waters. Anytime you get rainfall of this magnitude in such a short (about 12-18 hours) time span, the runoff can produce dangerous conditions. Please stay safe tonight, and stay tuned to Grotonweather.com for the latest! Do not forget to visit the chat room by clicking the "Open Chat" icon to the right. The Chat will be open through the early evening. Furthermore, make sure you tune in for tomorrow's podcast as we talk about this event!

Note: One of the quickest ways to get updates from Grotonweather.com is on our facebook page! Become a fan now by clicking here!

Video: Severe threat update

Blizzard Video

Here is my video update on the blizzard. Please leave feedback!

Snow Map

There have only been a couple changes to the forecast in the past 24 hours since last night's blog entry. Firstly, there is little question now that the entire storm over our area will remain as snow. The main stream of warmer air will remain north of us, and I question how far west it will make it. This makes it a very difficult forecast for Syracuse, but I think even they will remain mostly or all snow. The second change is more precipitation for the Grotonweather area. These two factors combined have given me the confidence to up my snow totals to 12-18" for most of the area. Here is my snow map for the entire storm.



I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!

Largest Snowfall of 2009-2010 Winter Looming

The largest snowfall for the Grotonweather.com area is on our horizon. This storm has consistently been on the models since Saturday, and I've just been waiting for it to become obvious that it won't happen. Over the past day and a half, I began to believe that this storm actually was going to happen, but the models remained inconsistent with the timing and exact location. There are still plenty of uncertainties to be figured out, but its time to start nailing down the seriousness of the storm. My main concern is not how much snow actually falls, but rather the blowing of the snow as the low explodes to our southeast. It will be a significant snowfall too, probably on the order of about a foot, but winds will make it seem like its snowing even heavier with near zero visibilities at times. Lets take this storm one aspect at a time.

Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.

Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.

Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.

Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.

Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.

Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.

3PM Snow Video

NOTE: The watches, warnings and advisory part of the show is already out of date, with a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for the entire Grotonweather.com forecast area, and WINTER STORM WARNINGS in the bordering counties south and east. Enjoy the video...leave comments!

Flooding Weather Video

I have decided to try my hand at video blogging for the upcoming flood potential. Let me know what you think!

Friday Afternoon's Severe Weather Outlook for 7/11

I spent the morning and early afternoon down at the National Weather Service in Binghamton, where I am an intern this summer, and used some of their in-house tools to try to get a better handle on the severe weather threat tomorrow. I will mention that the meteorologists there this morning believe tomorrow will be an active day and seem to have a high confidence level.

One of the tools I used this morning was a form called the 'severe weather checklist'. This form has you enter in forecasted values for a variety of severe weather parameters. After doing so, it returns the 5 most similar severe weather days in recent Central New York history. When completing this checklist this morning, it returned 4 days of 'isolated supercells', including May 16th, 2009, which had 3 tornadoes in the area, and May 31, 2002, which had 4 tornadoes. The fifth day was classified as a 'broken line'. Hail was the primary threat from the five days collectively. That tells me that not everywhere tomorrow will see a strong thunderstorm....some areas may barely even get any rain. However, there is certainly potential for some severe weather, and someone will likely have to deal with a damaging storm.

Here is a glance at where I have my threat levels, and an in depth look at exactly what I mean by each threat level, as well as what would need to happen for an upgraded risk:

Thunderstorms: moderate-
Thunderstorms are likely across much of the area. A few places, however, will be missed and get little to no rain. Frequent lightning will accompany some of the storms.

High Winds: slight-
Some storms may contain strong winds. Wind damage will be isolated to scattered, with 3 to 10 reports in Central New York. Sunshine in the morning would increase the chances of wind damage, and could get this bumped up to a moderate risk.

Hail: slight-
Small hail will be possible with stronger storms tomorrow, but most hail should remain uner 1" in diameter. The strongest storms may produce up to 1.5" hail. 5-12 Severe hail (over 0.75") events can be expected in Central New York. This is still rather uncertain, and could be upgraded to a moderate risk should the models show a bit better conditions for hail tomorrow morning.

Tornadoes: slight-
Conditions are favorable for rotating storms, and tornadoes could form. My best current guess is that somewhere in Western, Central and Southern New York will see a weak tornado, but as many as 2 or 3 wouldn't surprise me. This would most likely not be upgraded to moderate unless numerous storms that have already developed are showing signs of becoming tornadic.

Expect the next website update to occur between 9 and 11 am tomorrow. A blog update should occur within 30 minutes of that. There also could be a quick blog update tonight. During the afternoon tomorrow, I plan to have the weather chat open and will be updating th blog and website as needed. Stay tuned!

Severe Storm Potential

I am very impressed with the atmosphere this morning and feel like this is perhaps the best severe weather set up we have had so far this spring. There is a cold front draped across eastern Ohio this morning that will move eastward and trigger thunderstorms. Ahead of that front, skies have cleared across western New York, creating an already unstable atmosphere even more so. I was surprised to see the instability indexes so high already this morning. You did not need me to tell you that, however, as the humidity this morning is making it feel very uncomfortable and muggy.

The main threat today is going to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, conditions also appear favorable for a tornado or two to form, so you will want to keep an eye to the sky. The Storm Prediction Center does not actually have us in a slight risk area today, for reasons that are beyond my understanding. I feel that the will reverse their thinking as the morning wears on and, with their 12:30pm update, add us to the slight risk area. You can check that by clicking here.

I will not be able to update this during the afternoon today. I will actually be down at the National Weather Service in Binghamton on my first day as a summer intern there. I do not think there could have been a better day for me to start, and I believe it will be a very active day down there. Click Here for the latest watches and warning, and click here for a look at the radar.

A Look at Watch #280

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that stretches across almost all of New York State. It remains in effect until 7pm tonight. Here is a look at the exact counties it includes. As you can see, Tompkins, Cortland and S. Cayuga are right in the middle of it.


The main threat from this event is going to be damaging winds. Hail will also be possible, and my gut feeling is there will be a tornado somewhere in the watch box. The official probabilities that the SPC has put with the watch:
Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

Since it is at the top of the hour, the current observations and indicies will not be in for another 20-40 minutes. Looking at the data from noon, though, it is obvious to me that the atmosphere is quickly destabilizing. Also, a pocket of strong winds in the upper atmosphere is beginning to move into Western New York, and will spread over the rest of the state, enhancing the thunderstorms. Storms are going to develop from west to east, and have already begun to fire up across Western New York, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These storms should organize into a squall line eventually, which is when the greatest threat for wind damage will be. The highest tornado and hail threat will be just prior to that, when the storms are more individual cells.

Be sure to keep checking back through the afternoon for the latest!

Wednesday's Storm

I have decided not to issue a snowfall map for this storm simply because it looks like the entire area will have a pretty uniform accumulation from this. All of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier look to be in for a good 7-12". I upped the amounts slightly from this morning based on the models bringing in more moisture than previous runs. I even saw some indications of amounts over a foot, but I think that is overdone.

All of the models are now in pretty good agreement with each other except for one. Normally, when a model is drastically different from the others, it wouldn't put too much of a damper on my confidence levels. However, this time it is the European model, which has been out-performing the other models all winter. The problem is...the Euro brings in enough warm air to cause a snow/sleet mix to occur over Central New York. My forecast totals do not reflect that happening, but if it does happen, I would think accumulations more on the order of just 4-8".

Another concern I have is my old nemesis, the dry slot. With any big storm, dry air works around the center and gets wrapped up into the storm from the southwest. If I mess up a big-snow forecast, usually it seems to be the dry slot that is the culprit. The models have this punch of dry air working across Pennsylvania during the day tomorrow, staying to our south. I imagine the counties right along the State Line have the best chance of being hit by it, meaning their snow totals may be on the lower end of the 7-12", where as the northern areas will be on the higher end. Like the mixing, my forecast doesn't have the dry slot coming in, but if the models miss and it ends up 50-100 miles further north, most areas will be hard pressed to get into that 7-12" range.

As for the timing of this storm, the snow will likely start tonight between 9-11PM. It won't take too long for the snow to get heavy, and we should have 3-5" by tomorrow morning's commute. I do not expect the snow begin to let up until after sunset tomorrow. Even then, we will be dealing with snow showers and perhaps some occasional periods of moderate snow right through the night. I would say a snow day is a decent bet for most places tomorrow, but its never an absolute. The WeatherChat will be opening sometime after 6:30 tonight and will likely stay open right through 11pm or midnight.

Dry Slotting

Snow Totals:
10AM- Dusting
11AM- 0.5"
12PM- 1.5"
1PM- 3.2"
2PM- 4.2"
3PM- 4.6"

Post:
Bad news for snow totals, good news for traveling...but the storm's dry slot is going to just hit Groton. It is racing eastward across Southern New York and should be entering Tompkins and Cortland Counties by 3:30. This should more or less end the snow.



Now, the low is forecast to start taking more of a southeasterly track, so I think we will get back into the snow this evening. However, we will be hard pressed to get to 8" I think...let alone a foot. I think 5-9" total would be a good projection for Groton now. Areas just to the north, however, that remain in the snow will stick in that 8-14" range.

Morning Storm Update

It is now quarter after 10am, and everything is going pretty much as expected. The snow started here in Groton about an hour ago, and already visibilities are down to roughly a mile as the snow has started to pick up in intensity. Looking at the official 10AM observations, Ithaca is reporting light snow, with moderate snow in Rochester, Penn Yan, and Dansville, and heavy snow falling in Buffalo. Over the next hour, expect the snow to continue to increase in intensity to the rate of an inch or so an hour. The snow will continue at least at that intensity, likely reaching 2" per hour at times, through the afternoon. Heavy and moderate snow is being reported back through Michigan. There is actually heavy snow in Wisconsin as well, but I think Lake Michigan is enhancing that snow since the winds are out of the northeast. Here is a look at the radar (from 9:30...but that is recent enough to get the point across). You can see any mixed precipitation is well south, and the snow extends back into the areas I just described. All this is moving more or less east-southeast.



Bottom line is the snow is going to come down hard very soon and continue at rates of 1-2" per hour until at least sundown. There may even be some thunder and lightning in the snow during the early and mid afternoon. Please leave a comment here, or log onto the chat (assuming it is open) and report any thunder! The chat room will likely be open most of the day today as well. I will continue to update this blog hourly, probably just with snow totals, but also any new information that comes in.

Another Friday Snow Storm

Another Friday, another snow storm for Central New York. Unlike last week's storm, this storm is not a nor' easter. It is pretty much moving west to east, so there is no worry about the models having an eastward bias. That makes my life a little easier this time around. I decided to do a snow map after all, even though the entire GrotonWeather forecast area should get the same amount.



As you can see, this will be a big storm, despite its relatively short duration. The snow will being to move in during the morning, before coming heavy by 10 or 11AM. It will really come down hard for a period of 6-8 hours, likely exceeding an inch per hour at times. By the evening, it will quickly taper off to just flurries over night.

I am going to dinner now, but once I get back (by 6:30-7), I will open the chatroom to field questions...and I will likely be there a good part of the night!

Love That East Bias!

I hinted this morning in my forecast discussion that "If it [the storm] really gets its act together, we could end up on the high end of those totals [from last night's snow map]." Well, the storm remains very impressive on satellite and radar. One thing is very evident though. The eastward bias of the models I was talking about is showing up perhaps even more significantly than I thought it would.

When I looked at the models last night, the back edge of the precipitation was roughly from a Pittsburgh, PA to Rochester, NY line. Already though, precipitation is being detected on radar as far west as Cleveland and Buffalo (though it is probably not yet reaching the ground). The low right now is over northern Georgia and is already a good one hundred or so miles further west than it is supposed to be.

The National Weather Service and local media stations have picked up on this finally and have more or less come into agreement with what I was saying yesterday. Tompkins and Cortland Counties are now under WINTER STORM WARNINGS instead of the Advisories that were in effect. Those last until 10AM tomorrow. Since the low will track a little further inland, the precipitation may be a bit heavier and last a bit longer than last night. I also mentioned this morning the possibility of expanding the 6-10" range west. As you can see, I have now done that with this new data.



After school activities have been canceled for many schools in our area. I would say that the chances of a snow day have increased a bit. It is still far from a certainty, but there is certainly cause for hope!

Also, if you haven't heard yet, I have a new feature on the site that I just added this morning. If you look to the black bar on the right side of the page, you will see a link to the 'GrotonWeather Weather Chat.' The text will either say the chat is open, of that it is closed. If it is open, it means I am sitting in the chat room, ready to give you whatever information you want to know about the weather! So, if you see that the room is open, come on in!

Snow Map

11AM Update: I just added a new feature to the website....a chat room! The link to the chat room can be found in the black bar on the right side of the page. More often than not, I will have the chat room closed. But, during times of severe or extreme weather, when I am on my computer forecasting, I will open up the chat for you to ask my questions about the weather. Please click the link to the right for more details...and if the room is open, stop in and say hi!

10:20AM Update: I have updated the main forecast page as promised. Next blog should be sometime between 4-7PM...probably sooner rather than later!

Original Post:
At last, here is the snow map. When one of the models came in, it still had the storm way east, with Ithaca getting an amazing 0.07" of snow from the storm. That isn't the model I prefer to use on a day to day basis anyways though, so I didn't put too much stock into. The model I do use takes a bit longer to become available (since it goes out a lot longer), so that is why the map has taken so long. That model seems to be settling in nicely with my earlier predictions now.

The temperatures during this storm are going to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30. Since wet snow doesn't accumulate as much as drier snow, I slightly lowered totals from what I pulled out of thin air earlier. As for snow days, at this time, I would probably say its a good idea to expect school on Friday, but someone in the area will likely wake up with a nice surprise three-day weekend.



My next update will likely not be a blog entry, but just my normal morning forecast update. Just click the banner at the very top of the page to see that.