Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into "Alert Mode" for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.
The Alert Mode is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode threatens lives and property. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to highlight the potential dangers.
Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:
First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be above and beyond the "average" bad weather situation.
Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into Standby to raise awareness of the potential for devastating weather.
When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on Facebook and/or Twitter for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our Facebook and Twitter pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps.
The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help prevent that from ever becoming a reality. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "keep checking back for updates!"
Showing posts with label blizzard. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blizzard. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Snow Map
There have only been a couple changes to the forecast in the past 24 hours since last night's blog entry. Firstly, there is little question now that the entire storm over our area will remain as snow. The main stream of warmer air will remain north of us, and I question how far west it will make it. This makes it a very difficult forecast for Syracuse, but I think even they will remain mostly or all snow. The second change is more precipitation for the Grotonweather area. These two factors combined have given me the confidence to up my snow totals to 12-18" for most of the area. Here is my snow map for the entire storm.
I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!
I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Largest Snowfall of 2009-2010 Winter Looming
The largest snowfall for the Grotonweather.com area is on our horizon. This storm has consistently been on the models since Saturday, and I've just been waiting for it to become obvious that it won't happen. Over the past day and a half, I began to believe that this storm actually was going to happen, but the models remained inconsistent with the timing and exact location. There are still plenty of uncertainties to be figured out, but its time to start nailing down the seriousness of the storm. My main concern is not how much snow actually falls, but rather the blowing of the snow as the low explodes to our southeast. It will be a significant snowfall too, probably on the order of about a foot, but winds will make it seem like its snowing even heavier with near zero visibilities at times. Lets take this storm one aspect at a time.
Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.
Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.
Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.
Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.
Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.
Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.
Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.
Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.
Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.
Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.
Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.
Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Groundhog Day Speculation
The meteorological community is abuzz with excitement today. Numerous models are all in agreement with a major storm coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico Monday and then sitting somewhere over the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I thought that with all the hype around this storm already, people might be curious what I think.
First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.
Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.
The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.
The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.
February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.
Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!
First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.
Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.
The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.
The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.
February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.
Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Wednesday's Storm
I have decided not to issue a snowfall map for this storm simply because it looks like the entire area will have a pretty uniform accumulation from this. All of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier look to be in for a good 7-12". I upped the amounts slightly from this morning based on the models bringing in more moisture than previous runs. I even saw some indications of amounts over a foot, but I think that is overdone.
All of the models are now in pretty good agreement with each other except for one. Normally, when a model is drastically different from the others, it wouldn't put too much of a damper on my confidence levels. However, this time it is the European model, which has been out-performing the other models all winter. The problem is...the Euro brings in enough warm air to cause a snow/sleet mix to occur over Central New York. My forecast totals do not reflect that happening, but if it does happen, I would think accumulations more on the order of just 4-8".
Another concern I have is my old nemesis, the dry slot. With any big storm, dry air works around the center and gets wrapped up into the storm from the southwest. If I mess up a big-snow forecast, usually it seems to be the dry slot that is the culprit. The models have this punch of dry air working across Pennsylvania during the day tomorrow, staying to our south. I imagine the counties right along the State Line have the best chance of being hit by it, meaning their snow totals may be on the lower end of the 7-12", where as the northern areas will be on the higher end. Like the mixing, my forecast doesn't have the dry slot coming in, but if the models miss and it ends up 50-100 miles further north, most areas will be hard pressed to get into that 7-12" range.
As for the timing of this storm, the snow will likely start tonight between 9-11PM. It won't take too long for the snow to get heavy, and we should have 3-5" by tomorrow morning's commute. I do not expect the snow begin to let up until after sunset tomorrow. Even then, we will be dealing with snow showers and perhaps some occasional periods of moderate snow right through the night. I would say a snow day is a decent bet for most places tomorrow, but its never an absolute. The WeatherChat will be opening sometime after 6:30 tonight and will likely stay open right through 11pm or midnight.
All of the models are now in pretty good agreement with each other except for one. Normally, when a model is drastically different from the others, it wouldn't put too much of a damper on my confidence levels. However, this time it is the European model, which has been out-performing the other models all winter. The problem is...the Euro brings in enough warm air to cause a snow/sleet mix to occur over Central New York. My forecast totals do not reflect that happening, but if it does happen, I would think accumulations more on the order of just 4-8".
Another concern I have is my old nemesis, the dry slot. With any big storm, dry air works around the center and gets wrapped up into the storm from the southwest. If I mess up a big-snow forecast, usually it seems to be the dry slot that is the culprit. The models have this punch of dry air working across Pennsylvania during the day tomorrow, staying to our south. I imagine the counties right along the State Line have the best chance of being hit by it, meaning their snow totals may be on the lower end of the 7-12", where as the northern areas will be on the higher end. Like the mixing, my forecast doesn't have the dry slot coming in, but if the models miss and it ends up 50-100 miles further north, most areas will be hard pressed to get into that 7-12" range.
As for the timing of this storm, the snow will likely start tonight between 9-11PM. It won't take too long for the snow to get heavy, and we should have 3-5" by tomorrow morning's commute. I do not expect the snow begin to let up until after sunset tomorrow. Even then, we will be dealing with snow showers and perhaps some occasional periods of moderate snow right through the night. I would say a snow day is a decent bet for most places tomorrow, but its never an absolute. The WeatherChat will be opening sometime after 6:30 tonight and will likely stay open right through 11pm or midnight.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
9:30 PM Storm Update
The heaviest of the precipitation is racing very rapidly into northern New England and the worst part of the storm has ended over our area. However, all that wrap around moisture I was talking about in my last post is sticking around and will continue to keep the light to at times moderate snows around overnight and tomorrow morning. The winds will continue to increase as well and the temperatures will drop overnight as well. This will allow for considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow, so even when it is not snowing or doing so lightly, travel will be difficult.
I am not quite as confident about a snowday now, but I am going to stick with my original forecast and say it will happen. Just because the heavy snow is over doesn't mean the effects of this storm won't continue well into the day tomorrow.
Here is the latest radar. I didn't bother to color-code it because it is a bite easier to see the different intensities of precipitation on the unmodified version. As you can see, all that snow to our southwest is still sitting there despite the storm being well into New England. As the main precipitation shield continues to lift away from our area, I am expecting a similar set up to form over our area; you can already see it happening in Western New York. Generally, only another 1-4" can be expected tonight with a few locally higher amounts. But again, the wind is going to be the more significant feature of this storm here on out.
PS: I am going to try to do one more update tonight before I go to bed, so if you are still up, check back around or just after midnight!
I am not quite as confident about a snowday now, but I am going to stick with my original forecast and say it will happen. Just because the heavy snow is over doesn't mean the effects of this storm won't continue well into the day tomorrow.
Here is the latest radar. I didn't bother to color-code it because it is a bite easier to see the different intensities of precipitation on the unmodified version. As you can see, all that snow to our southwest is still sitting there despite the storm being well into New England. As the main precipitation shield continues to lift away from our area, I am expecting a similar set up to form over our area; you can already see it happening in Western New York. Generally, only another 1-4" can be expected tonight with a few locally higher amounts. But again, the wind is going to be the more significant feature of this storm here on out.
PS: I am going to try to do one more update tonight before I go to bed, so if you are still up, check back around or just after midnight!
5PM Storm Update
The storm center is tracking across southern Pennsylvania right now and slowly turning northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over all of Central New York. Below is the latest radar image from weathertap, and there are a few things noteworthy about it.
1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....
2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while
2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.
3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.
What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.
Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.
1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....
2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while
2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.
3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.
What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.
Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.
Monday, February 25, 2008
STORM MODE: Blizzard conditions tomorrow night!
The models have continued their trend towards becoming colder and colder, so while I have been trying not to hype up this storm, its time to go with the worst case scenario with this system. It now appears very likely that rain will NOT mix in. Not only that, but the most intense part of the storm appears to track right over Central New York.
The snow will start tomorrow morning and continue through Wednesday. The heaviest of the snow looks to be later tomorrow and overnight. The winds with this storm will also really kick up, blowing the snow around. This will only make travel all the worse. Travel should be limited to emergencies only as roads will be nearly impassable. A snow-day Wednesday is all but a guarantee. Here is my updated snow map. As you can see, this is going to be a very big storm with many places getting over a foot, and some locally getting 18" or more!
The snow will start tomorrow morning and continue through Wednesday. The heaviest of the snow looks to be later tomorrow and overnight. The winds with this storm will also really kick up, blowing the snow around. This will only make travel all the worse. Travel should be limited to emergencies only as roads will be nearly impassable. A snow-day Wednesday is all but a guarantee. Here is my updated snow map. As you can see, this is going to be a very big storm with many places getting over a foot, and some locally getting 18" or more!
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
6PM Storm Update
I have decided to not make any more changes to my last snow map. I like the amounts on the low end of the ranges of we get more sleet, and the upper end looks good for a mostly snow event. I think it will probably be on the lower end, but that isn't certain. It is such a close call with this storm; every source I have checked seems to say something different! That being said, its time to watch what happens and how the storm unfolds and make short-term forecasts as opposed to trying to figure out what could happen...because at this point, that is pretty much impossible.
So, here is the latest radar from weathertap.com covering the entire Northeast.
As you can see, snow (blue) has overspread the region and there is quite a bit out there. Also interesting to note is the very slow progress of the pink line northward. That pink line is where the precipitation is sleet and freezing rain. Expect that to be a lot closer tonight when I post another radar near 11PM.
So for the rest of this evening, expect snow, heavy at times and quickly accumulating since it is so cold. This will make travel difficult. By 11PM tonight, most areas will have already seen a good 2-5", with some localized amounts upwards of 6" or 7". Feel free to send me your measurements! Just leave a comment right here on the blog!
So, here is the latest radar from weathertap.com covering the entire Northeast.
As you can see, snow (blue) has overspread the region and there is quite a bit out there. Also interesting to note is the very slow progress of the pink line northward. That pink line is where the precipitation is sleet and freezing rain. Expect that to be a lot closer tonight when I post another radar near 11PM.
So for the rest of this evening, expect snow, heavy at times and quickly accumulating since it is so cold. This will make travel difficult. By 11PM tonight, most areas will have already seen a good 2-5", with some localized amounts upwards of 6" or 7". Feel free to send me your measurements! Just leave a comment right here on the blog!
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Repeat Storm? Feb 17, 2006 & Jan 30, 2008
I have been tracking a storm system that will bring a high wind event to the area tomorrow, and the similarities between this storm and the storm responsible for the February 2006 windstorm are striking!
First off, lets go back 2 years and look at what the Feb. 17, 2006 windstorm did around the area: (All pictures taken by me.)
Tree down in my backyard. This photo was featured on News Channel 9 that evening.
Two towering pines down in Cayuga County.
This photo was taken in April 2007. The tree was partially uprooted during the Feb. 2006 windstorm, but continued to grow afterwards. You can see the new, upwards growth, making this the "bent tree".
Some other notable aspects include:
In Rochester, a lady was killed when a tree fell on her car.
Just outside of Union Springs, road signs were blown over.
At the Waterloo Premium Outlets, a stop light was blown right off its wires.
SUNY Oswego closed for the day because the wind was blowing construction materials around.
Needless to say, this was a pretty impressive wind storm. Now, on a much larger scale, the previous day, Feb. 16, 2006 had some impressive weather as well...weather that seems to be repeating itself today:
Let's start with Illinois. I distinctly remember having a substitute teacher 9th period that day, thus getting a study hall period. I remember being very excited because of the extreme weather in Illinois. In the northwest part of the state, there were Winter Storm, if not Blizzard Warnings in effect. A few counties to the south, a tornado watch! Here is what is going on today in Illinois:
You can see there are once again Blizzard Warnings (in red) to the north, while just a few counties south, a tornado watch is in effect. Now by the time I grabbed this image, the western edge of the watch had been allowed to expire. However, I re-shaded those areas back in the light yellow with white hatching to show how close the two extremes were.
Now lets look at the Storm Prediction Outlooks for Feb. 16, 2006 and today. Notice how similar they are!
Feb 16, 2006 8AM.....then Today 8AM
Feb 16, 2006 12:30PM.....then Today 12:30PM
Feb 16, 2006 3PM.....then Today 3PM
Obviously the outlooks are not exactly the same...but they are very, very close when talking about 2 events, 2 years apart! One last graphic to look at is the storm reports from that day (top) compared with todays [updated last: 7:15PM] (bottom):
One last note to make brings us back to Central New York. Tompkins county and points south and east had a Wind Advisory issued during the event, while counties north had a High Wind Warning. That is again the case today.
Now I am not saying that the exact same thing will happen tomorrow as did in Feb. 2006. I just thought the similarities were very interesting and I thought it would be a fun post to make! Hope you enjoyed it!
First off, lets go back 2 years and look at what the Feb. 17, 2006 windstorm did around the area: (All pictures taken by me.)
Tree down in my backyard. This photo was featured on News Channel 9 that evening.
Two towering pines down in Cayuga County.
This photo was taken in April 2007. The tree was partially uprooted during the Feb. 2006 windstorm, but continued to grow afterwards. You can see the new, upwards growth, making this the "bent tree".
Some other notable aspects include:
In Rochester, a lady was killed when a tree fell on her car.
Just outside of Union Springs, road signs were blown over.
At the Waterloo Premium Outlets, a stop light was blown right off its wires.
SUNY Oswego closed for the day because the wind was blowing construction materials around.
Needless to say, this was a pretty impressive wind storm. Now, on a much larger scale, the previous day, Feb. 16, 2006 had some impressive weather as well...weather that seems to be repeating itself today:
Let's start with Illinois. I distinctly remember having a substitute teacher 9th period that day, thus getting a study hall period. I remember being very excited because of the extreme weather in Illinois. In the northwest part of the state, there were Winter Storm, if not Blizzard Warnings in effect. A few counties to the south, a tornado watch! Here is what is going on today in Illinois:
You can see there are once again Blizzard Warnings (in red) to the north, while just a few counties south, a tornado watch is in effect. Now by the time I grabbed this image, the western edge of the watch had been allowed to expire. However, I re-shaded those areas back in the light yellow with white hatching to show how close the two extremes were.
Now lets look at the Storm Prediction Outlooks for Feb. 16, 2006 and today. Notice how similar they are!
Feb 16, 2006 8AM.....then Today 8AM
Feb 16, 2006 12:30PM.....then Today 12:30PM
Feb 16, 2006 3PM.....then Today 3PM
Obviously the outlooks are not exactly the same...but they are very, very close when talking about 2 events, 2 years apart! One last graphic to look at is the storm reports from that day (top) compared with todays [updated last: 7:15PM] (bottom):
One last note to make brings us back to Central New York. Tompkins county and points south and east had a Wind Advisory issued during the event, while counties north had a High Wind Warning. That is again the case today.
Now I am not saying that the exact same thing will happen tomorrow as did in Feb. 2006. I just thought the similarities were very interesting and I thought it would be a fun post to make! Hope you enjoyed it!
Saturday, December 15, 2007
So it begins!
The snow has started to fall here ever so lightly, but it is just the start of things to come. Despite most other people still insisting on sleet mixing in, I am sticking to my guns and saying this will not happen. So far, it looks like conditions are starting to favor the all snow forecast.
Temperatures at the surface are in the 30's all the way into North Carolina. Another interesting thing going on in the Carolinas is the winds and pressures are starting to indicate the development of the coastal storm. This is happening way faster than the models projected. As a result, the low to the west of the Appalachian Mountains will not be as strong or make it as far north as the models show. This will in turn mean the warm air won't get in here...not that it would have an easy time doing so since the cold air is so entrenched anyways.
Another thing about the models and cold air is showing up over Ohio. The models had temperatures there in the upper 30's and low 40's...but instead, temperatures have stuck near or just above freezing. So the models are too warm as well, which also translates to a lower chance of sleet here.
All in all the models have not been handling this well so I have pretty much thrown out the recent runs and my thinking from the previous days has not changed. The only thing I would change on my snowmap from last night would be to extend the 12-18" line to include more of Western New York and maybe up the 18" to 20" or even 24". Other than that, everything looks good locally.
Now, as you wake up tomorrow, there will likely already be at least 3-6" of new snow. As the day goes on, the snow will become very heavy and the winds will pick up as well. This will make travel very, very dangerous, so if you don't have to go out tomorrow, stay home. This will continue into tomorrow night before tapering off sometime after midnight.
Temperatures at the surface are in the 30's all the way into North Carolina. Another interesting thing going on in the Carolinas is the winds and pressures are starting to indicate the development of the coastal storm. This is happening way faster than the models projected. As a result, the low to the west of the Appalachian Mountains will not be as strong or make it as far north as the models show. This will in turn mean the warm air won't get in here...not that it would have an easy time doing so since the cold air is so entrenched anyways.
Another thing about the models and cold air is showing up over Ohio. The models had temperatures there in the upper 30's and low 40's...but instead, temperatures have stuck near or just above freezing. So the models are too warm as well, which also translates to a lower chance of sleet here.
All in all the models have not been handling this well so I have pretty much thrown out the recent runs and my thinking from the previous days has not changed. The only thing I would change on my snowmap from last night would be to extend the 12-18" line to include more of Western New York and maybe up the 18" to 20" or even 24". Other than that, everything looks good locally.
Now, as you wake up tomorrow, there will likely already be at least 3-6" of new snow. As the day goes on, the snow will become very heavy and the winds will pick up as well. This will make travel very, very dangerous, so if you don't have to go out tomorrow, stay home. This will continue into tomorrow night before tapering off sometime after midnight.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Wasting no time!
Well, the first storm has pulled off and accelerated, meaning even the far eastern reaches of New England are mostly precipitation free. I recorded 6.4" here at my house...if you have any measurements, feel free to send them in!
Now, its already time to focus on the next storm. The National Weather Service didn't give us much of a break and has already issued a Winter Storm Watch. Piecing together what this says and what Henry Margusity of accuweather.com has been saying, I think our chances for a foot or more are pretty decent. I will issue a map for the entire East Coast sometime tomorrow and will likely go into "storm mode" Saturday afternoon. The snow should start sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Keep checking back for updates as things come together!
Now, its already time to focus on the next storm. The National Weather Service didn't give us much of a break and has already issued a Winter Storm Watch. Piecing together what this says and what Henry Margusity of accuweather.com has been saying, I think our chances for a foot or more are pretty decent. I will issue a map for the entire East Coast sometime tomorrow and will likely go into "storm mode" Saturday afternoon. The snow should start sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Keep checking back for updates as things come together!
3 PM Storm Update
As of 2:30, I had a bit over 5" of snow at my house, though the snow has picked up considerably in the last 30 minutes. However, this storm is in its final stages now, and within the next 30 to 60 minutes, the snow should stop for a time. The snow will start up again later, but shouldn't be as heavy. Here is the latest radar:
As you can see, there is a dry slot just to our west. This has been becoming more pronounced all afternoon, which is why I am pretty certain the snow will stop completely for a while, just in time for the commute home. I would think another 1-3" will fall before all is said and done.
As for this weekend's storm, it is looking like we could be in for a big one. Not only will the snow be heavy, but the winds should be strong as well, making for near blizzard conditions. More on this later tonight and tomorrow.
As you can see, there is a dry slot just to our west. This has been becoming more pronounced all afternoon, which is why I am pretty certain the snow will stop completely for a while, just in time for the commute home. I would think another 1-3" will fall before all is said and done.
As for this weekend's storm, it is looking like we could be in for a big one. Not only will the snow be heavy, but the winds should be strong as well, making for near blizzard conditions. More on this later tonight and tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Duel Storms Update: 11PM Wednesday
Two significant winter storms will effect the area over the next 5 days, the first one being tomorrow and the second one on Sunday. Here are my latest thoughts:
For tomorrow's storm, it appears we are in for a 4-8 hour period of some very heavy snow. This will likely fall tomorrow afternoon, making the trip back from school hazardous. I would not be surprised if school around the region let out early tomorrow and can almost assure you that after school and evening activities will be canceled. We are looking at a good 5"-9", maybe 10" or 11" snowfall tomorrow. The snow should be tapering off towards evening. I understand the Class of 2008 is heading to New York City tomorrow night...if someone would let me know what time they are planning on leaving, I could try to piece together a forecast for the trip down. But unless I know what time departure is, I can't really say if this trip will get snowed out or not...but Friday should see an improvement in the weather that will last into Saturday until....
...the bigger of the two storms on Sunday! This storm looks to be a classical nor' easter, with plenty of cold, wind and snow in store for much of the Northeast. Here in Central New York, it looks like the worst may come Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavy, blowing snow making travel very dangerous. This storm will have more moisture to work with than Thursday's, so snow totals should be higher. In fact, this system may be able to pick up some extra moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Olga. I haven't mentioned Olga before partially because I have been busy, but also because hurricane season ended November 30th. However, Olga formed near Hispaniola earlier this week and may have its moisture sucked into this storm. Back here, it looks like we could be in store for a foot or more of snow from this one. Stay tuned over the next couple of days as this storm gets ironed out.
For tomorrow's storm, it appears we are in for a 4-8 hour period of some very heavy snow. This will likely fall tomorrow afternoon, making the trip back from school hazardous. I would not be surprised if school around the region let out early tomorrow and can almost assure you that after school and evening activities will be canceled. We are looking at a good 5"-9", maybe 10" or 11" snowfall tomorrow. The snow should be tapering off towards evening. I understand the Class of 2008 is heading to New York City tomorrow night...if someone would let me know what time they are planning on leaving, I could try to piece together a forecast for the trip down. But unless I know what time departure is, I can't really say if this trip will get snowed out or not...but Friday should see an improvement in the weather that will last into Saturday until....
...the bigger of the two storms on Sunday! This storm looks to be a classical nor' easter, with plenty of cold, wind and snow in store for much of the Northeast. Here in Central New York, it looks like the worst may come Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavy, blowing snow making travel very dangerous. This storm will have more moisture to work with than Thursday's, so snow totals should be higher. In fact, this system may be able to pick up some extra moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Olga. I haven't mentioned Olga before partially because I have been busy, but also because hurricane season ended November 30th. However, Olga formed near Hispaniola earlier this week and may have its moisture sucked into this storm. Back here, it looks like we could be in store for a foot or more of snow from this one. Stay tuned over the next couple of days as this storm gets ironed out.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
storm after storm...then maybe a BIG one!
Storm system after storm system will continue to parade across the country. One is moving though right now with rain; another is forecast to move through Thursday. However, my focus is already on the weekend in what is already being dubbed "The Superstorm of 2007"!
A storm system will sweep out of the South Central US into the Southeast, reform off the coast of North Carolina and zip up the coast Sunday. This storm does look to be a fast mover, meaning snow totals will likely be lower than they would otherwise. You have heard me say it a million times before, but it is worth saying again: Its too early to give totals yet, but if I had to go out on a limb and hint at an amount, I would say a double-digit snow fall is possible.
I am now done with my first semester of college, which means I now have plenty of time to watch and forecast for this storm...that can't be said about the past week! So, keep checking back! I will most likely be doing updates at least twice a day from now on....one in the morning on the normal website, then a blog at night. Of course, that is just the minimum!
STAY TUNED!
A storm system will sweep out of the South Central US into the Southeast, reform off the coast of North Carolina and zip up the coast Sunday. This storm does look to be a fast mover, meaning snow totals will likely be lower than they would otherwise. You have heard me say it a million times before, but it is worth saying again: Its too early to give totals yet, but if I had to go out on a limb and hint at an amount, I would say a double-digit snow fall is possible.
I am now done with my first semester of college, which means I now have plenty of time to watch and forecast for this storm...that can't be said about the past week! So, keep checking back! I will most likely be doing updates at least twice a day from now on....one in the morning on the normal website, then a blog at night. Of course, that is just the minimum!
STAY TUNED!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Storm Potential Heads-Up
This storm is still 4 or 5 days out, but its time to at least start talking about the potential. A large storm system is forecast to develop in the Southern Planes and head northeast this weekend. With very cold air in place across the entire northern tier of the nation, someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. There are two scenarios that seem possible with this weekend's storm:
The first has the storm plowing into the Great Lakes, bringing possible blizzard conditions to the Western Great Lakes, well away from us. This scenario would spare us heavy snow, though we would still likely get snow and maybe sleet and freezing rain.
The second scenario has the storm coming towards the Great Lakes like scenario 1, but then transferring energy to a second, coastal storm. This would place the heavy snow somewhere much closer by, if not right over Central New York Sunday and Monday.
My gut likes scenario 2...some of the more common models favor scenario 1. As a result, there is tons of uncertainty, so stay tuned as things iron out!
The first has the storm plowing into the Great Lakes, bringing possible blizzard conditions to the Western Great Lakes, well away from us. This scenario would spare us heavy snow, though we would still likely get snow and maybe sleet and freezing rain.
The second scenario has the storm coming towards the Great Lakes like scenario 1, but then transferring energy to a second, coastal storm. This would place the heavy snow somewhere much closer by, if not right over Central New York Sunday and Monday.
My gut likes scenario 2...some of the more common models favor scenario 1. As a result, there is tons of uncertainty, so stay tuned as things iron out!
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