Its going to be close

The severe weather threat is already ending up higher than I anticipated last night. For the second time in a week, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk area for portions of the Northeast. At this time, we are just to the northwest of this area, with the boundary running from southwest to northeast through about Binghamton. Here are the hail (top) and wind (bottom) outlooks for today from the SPC. The hail one in particular has me concerned, since we are on the edge of the hatched area, which means a 10% or greater chance of hail over 2" in diameter.


8AM Edit: The visible image shows clearing skies behind this morning's area of rain. Since this satellite image was taken before the sun got very high in the sky, the dark area over Western New York is where the sun will be out. That was the key that was going to make or break us: sun. Yesterday, I wasn't calling for much if any sun. But now, things have changed.


I will continue to monitor this situation as it develops. Stay tuned for the latest! The next outlook from the SPC will come around 9:30, so check back closer to 10 for an update.

10AM Update: The newest SPC outlooks remain the same for our area. That keeps us right on the edge of the 30% wind and 30% hail lines, along with the edge of the hatched hail area.