A little known fact about watches is that they each have probablities of certain severe weather events occuring. For this watch, there is over a 95% chance of 10 or more wind damage reports, as well as over a 95% chance of 10 or more hail reports and a 40% chance of 2 or more tornado reports. That means the main threat is still damaging winds, but tornadoes are becoming an increasing threat.
An update on that line of storms: The northern portion appears to be the stronger part, with numerous warnings now in effect. Stay tuned for more updates on these storms.
Also, the National Weather Service confirmed my belief about multiple lines of storms today when they issued this statement at 10:05AM:
... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today...
An initial line of thunderstorms will cross The Finger lakes
region... the twin tiers... the Mohawk Valley... and the southern Tug
Hill region this morning... generally between 930 am and 12 noon.
This includes Elmira... Corning... Syracuse... Utica... Binghamton...
and Montrose. Localized strong damaging winds and hail are
possible late this morning.
This afternoon... another round of thunderstorms is anticipated.
Additional lines of storms are expected to cross the area... generally
between 2 and 6 PM. Once again... strong winds and hail are the
primary threats.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... or local media outlets... for the
latest updates. Watches and/or warnings may well be issued later
today.
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