Thursday, November 29, 2007
Storm Snow Map: 5PM
I have compiled what I think is a pretty good snow map for this far out. Keep in mind this is subject to change, in the coming days...but I think we are close enough to the storm now that this seems to be a decent prediction. The red pointer is Groton, which, as you can see, is in the 5-10" range. I don't think I will have to lower that at all, but I feel I might have to boost that up some before the storm comes.
Weekend Snowstorm: Thursday Afternoon Update
The models are starting to make more sense with this storm and it looks as if everything is starting to shape up for at least a moderate snowfall across most of Central New York Sunday and Monday. Of course the major question is: Snow day Monday? It is still too early to tell and there is a lot of questions that remain to be answered, but I will admit there is at least a chance!
Now, onto the meteorology of this. A storm is forming south of California over the Pacific Ocean. This storm will move into the Souther Plains and then up into the Great Lakes. This is the first part of the storm. A cold front will have brought in very cold air on Saturday. This cold air will be trapped, meaning everything that falls should be some form of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet or freezing rain.) A good 3-6" of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet from this part of the storm.
The storm center will then reform off the East Coast. There is some uncertainty as to where, with the models pointing to a reformation further north than perhaps makes sense. They are, however, tending to come further south recently. This means more cold air will be brought in, making a change over to rain unlikely. This will also likely get rid of any sleet and freezing rain, making it all snow. How much more snow we pick up from this part of the storm is still up in the air depending on where the storm reforms, its track, and how fast it moves.
I am experimenting with a snow map, so look for that later this evening or tomorrow!
Now, onto the meteorology of this. A storm is forming south of California over the Pacific Ocean. This storm will move into the Souther Plains and then up into the Great Lakes. This is the first part of the storm. A cold front will have brought in very cold air on Saturday. This cold air will be trapped, meaning everything that falls should be some form of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet or freezing rain.) A good 3-6" of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet from this part of the storm.
The storm center will then reform off the East Coast. There is some uncertainty as to where, with the models pointing to a reformation further north than perhaps makes sense. They are, however, tending to come further south recently. This means more cold air will be brought in, making a change over to rain unlikely. This will also likely get rid of any sleet and freezing rain, making it all snow. How much more snow we pick up from this part of the storm is still up in the air depending on where the storm reforms, its track, and how fast it moves.
I am experimenting with a snow map, so look for that later this evening or tomorrow!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Storm Potential Heads-Up
This storm is still 4 or 5 days out, but its time to at least start talking about the potential. A large storm system is forecast to develop in the Southern Planes and head northeast this weekend. With very cold air in place across the entire northern tier of the nation, someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. There are two scenarios that seem possible with this weekend's storm:
The first has the storm plowing into the Great Lakes, bringing possible blizzard conditions to the Western Great Lakes, well away from us. This scenario would spare us heavy snow, though we would still likely get snow and maybe sleet and freezing rain.
The second scenario has the storm coming towards the Great Lakes like scenario 1, but then transferring energy to a second, coastal storm. This would place the heavy snow somewhere much closer by, if not right over Central New York Sunday and Monday.
My gut likes scenario 2...some of the more common models favor scenario 1. As a result, there is tons of uncertainty, so stay tuned as things iron out!
The first has the storm plowing into the Great Lakes, bringing possible blizzard conditions to the Western Great Lakes, well away from us. This scenario would spare us heavy snow, though we would still likely get snow and maybe sleet and freezing rain.
The second scenario has the storm coming towards the Great Lakes like scenario 1, but then transferring energy to a second, coastal storm. This would place the heavy snow somewhere much closer by, if not right over Central New York Sunday and Monday.
My gut likes scenario 2...some of the more common models favor scenario 1. As a result, there is tons of uncertainty, so stay tuned as things iron out!
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