Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into "Alert Mode" for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.
The Alert Mode is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode threatens lives and property. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to highlight the potential dangers.
Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:
First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be above and beyond the "average" bad weather situation.
Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into Standby to raise awareness of the potential for devastating weather.
When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on Facebook and/or Twitter for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our Facebook and Twitter pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps.
The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help prevent that from ever becoming a reality. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "keep checking back for updates!"
Showing posts with label nor' easter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nor' easter. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Winter's Fury Unleashed
As posted by Drew Montreuil on Syracuse.com, 1/21/11
Old Man Winter sure is angry these days, and we will not be escaping his wrath over the next week or so. The first fits of his anger are already being felt across much of the northern half of the country. Yet another Nor'easter is striking parts of New England. This storm brought us 3-6" of snow overnight, but parts of Maine will see over a foot.
In the Midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an 'Extreme Cold Warning' for parts of Minnesota last night. The Extreme Cold Warning is a new warning the NWS is trying out for temperatures lower than -40º. The warning surely verified, as temperatures this morning in International Falls, Minnesota got down to a mind-numbing -46º. Even Rochester, Minnesota, in the southern part of the state, dropped to -20º.
Some of the cold is on the way for us, but Old Man Winter has another shot to throw at us first: another bout of heavy lake effect snow. Schools across northern Cayuga, northern Onondaga and Oswego counties are dismissing early in anticipation of the lake effect blitz.
A huge contributor to heavy lake effect snow in a set-up like today's is whether or not moisture from the Upper Great Lakes is able to feed the Lake Ontario band. Observations from Canada this morning are indicating that the connection is being made, which only will increase the chances of heavy snow.
The lake effect will start up this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning before only gradually weakening and moving northward tomorrow. Some areas across Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga counties could see upwards of 2 feet by late tomorrow morning.
If that was not bad enough, the cold temperatures and winds will bring wind chills down to potentially dangerous levels late this afternoon and tonight. Even those not impacted by the lake effect will want to make sure they are properly bundled up against the cold.
This is all just the beginning though, and the next assault from Winter's War comes in Sunday and Monday. The bitter cold air mass that was over Minnesota this morning will work its way over us later this weekend.
High temperatures Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach 10º, and Sunday night will be the coldest night we have seen in a few years. Many areas across Central New York will see the mercury drop to -10º, and some of the outlying areas may even see -20º.
And now, could a grand finale to Old Man Winter's assault be in the works? The latest long range weather models are showing hints of another coastal storm in the works for the middle of next week. If the current model projections hold true, Central New York could be looking at its biggest widespread snow of the season so far. While it is way too early to tell whether or not that will come to pass, it will need to be watched as we head into next week.
On the bright side...at least its not -46º!
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Snow Map
There have only been a couple changes to the forecast in the past 24 hours since last night's blog entry. Firstly, there is little question now that the entire storm over our area will remain as snow. The main stream of warmer air will remain north of us, and I question how far west it will make it. This makes it a very difficult forecast for Syracuse, but I think even they will remain mostly or all snow. The second change is more precipitation for the Grotonweather area. These two factors combined have given me the confidence to up my snow totals to 12-18" for most of the area. Here is my snow map for the entire storm.
I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!
I apologize for not having more updates today and not having a video, but its been a busy week at school this week. I am planning to do a video tomorrow morning though, so make sure to check in sometime after 10am. Oh, and Groton students, enjoy your day off- School has already closed for tomorrow!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Largest Snowfall of 2009-2010 Winter Looming
The largest snowfall for the Grotonweather.com area is on our horizon. This storm has consistently been on the models since Saturday, and I've just been waiting for it to become obvious that it won't happen. Over the past day and a half, I began to believe that this storm actually was going to happen, but the models remained inconsistent with the timing and exact location. There are still plenty of uncertainties to be figured out, but its time to start nailing down the seriousness of the storm. My main concern is not how much snow actually falls, but rather the blowing of the snow as the low explodes to our southeast. It will be a significant snowfall too, probably on the order of about a foot, but winds will make it seem like its snowing even heavier with near zero visibilities at times. Lets take this storm one aspect at a time.
Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.
Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.
Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.
Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.
Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.
Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.
Overall Pattern:
Low pressure is developing off the Southern New England coast this evening and tracking north. This is not the main storm. As it moves north, it will run into a sprawling area of high pressure and begin to weaken. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will dig into the eastern third of the county. This will create prime conditions for explosive storm development off the coast yet again. This low will absorb some of the energy from the dying low and continue to rapidly intensify. As it moves north towards New England, it will encounter that same high pressure, and begin to move more westerly. Over time, the storm, which still wants to move to the northeast, will do a loop over Southern New England and Southeastern New York, before heading out to sea.
Timing:
The snow will being to work into our area sometime in the morning Thursday and become heavy into the afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off in intensity Friday, but will still be around. By Saturday, everything should be pulling out, making the total time of this storm somewhere around 36 hours, with probably 12 hours of the heaviest snow.
Precipitation:
Snowfall totals are still a bit up in the air. I am concerned that warm air wraps around the system and causes a variety of precipitation types. The further to the west this storm comes, the more a concern that is. If we did change over to rain for a while, it would be later Thursday evening most likely. The models are not in agreement with whether or not this will happen, and it will have huge impacts on the total snow fall from this storm. Assuming an all snow event, which I think it probable at this time, snow fall totals should end up around a foot, give or take a couple inches. Expect a snow map Wednesday evening.
Winds:
With the low pressure coming into Southern New England and even Eastern New York, winds will become quite strong. Winds could be sustained near 25 mph for a time Thursday afternoon and evening with higher gusts. With the heavy nature of the snow, this could cause some tree damage and power outages, not to mention near zero visibilities and large snow drifts.
Temperatures:
Temperatures during the storm should stay in the upper 20s and low 30s for Thursday (mid 30s if we change to rain, but I just am not seeing that) before dropping off a bit Friday.
Stay tuned for the latest, as I will be tweaking this forecast over the next 24-36 hours. I will try to get a forecast video done tomorrow evening.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
3PM Snow Video
NOTE: The watches, warnings and advisory part of the show is already out of date, with a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect for the entire Grotonweather.com forecast area, and WINTER STORM WARNINGS in the bordering counties south and east. Enjoy the video...leave comments!
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Late Season Storm
Click here to return to the homepage
Here is the latest on the late season snow event tomorrow.
Not a whole lot has changed since this morning. The cold front is spreading areas of rain across the region this afternoon. This front extends all the way into the southeast and back towards Louisiana and Texas. An area of low pressure is developing across the Deep South and will trigger a large severe weather out break tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large moderate risk out for that:
The front that is moving through today will stall out to our east. Meanwhile, that low will fly up the front to a position near New York City by mid afternoon tomorrow. There will be just enough cold air being pulled into the storm that it should be all snow for the areas in blue on this map I created:
The low will be moving pretty quickly up the stalled front and the ground is warm, so accumulations shouldn't be huge. The change over to snow will occur first in the higher elevations, and it will remain colder there as well, so expect the highest totals there. The rest of Central New York should get a moderate snow, but not enough to cause too many problem. It will be windy as well though, so use caution traveling tomorrow as the wind and snow will create poor visibilities. Here is my snowfall map for the entire storm, which should wind down pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.
Where does this storm rank with some other 'out of season' storms? Its actually not very impressive. In 2007, our area was hit by almost 2 feet (18" is what I measured) on April 16-17th. In early October 2006, a monster lake effect event pounded Buffalo, causing millions of dollars worth of damage since the heavy wet snow stuck to the leaves on trees and brought them down. So this is more just a nuisance storm than anything. One commonality between the three storms is the lack of willingness on the part of the media to be bold and predict snow. Granted, the models are all over the place with this, as can be expected. But I feel really confident about this storm, as I did the April 2007 storm.
I will update again late tonight. I have a test in Tropical Meteorology (so ironic, isn't it?) tomorrow, so I won't be able to update again until 10 or 11. Stay tuned though!
Here is the latest on the late season snow event tomorrow.
Not a whole lot has changed since this morning. The cold front is spreading areas of rain across the region this afternoon. This front extends all the way into the southeast and back towards Louisiana and Texas. An area of low pressure is developing across the Deep South and will trigger a large severe weather out break tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large moderate risk out for that:
The front that is moving through today will stall out to our east. Meanwhile, that low will fly up the front to a position near New York City by mid afternoon tomorrow. There will be just enough cold air being pulled into the storm that it should be all snow for the areas in blue on this map I created:
The low will be moving pretty quickly up the stalled front and the ground is warm, so accumulations shouldn't be huge. The change over to snow will occur first in the higher elevations, and it will remain colder there as well, so expect the highest totals there. The rest of Central New York should get a moderate snow, but not enough to cause too many problem. It will be windy as well though, so use caution traveling tomorrow as the wind and snow will create poor visibilities. Here is my snowfall map for the entire storm, which should wind down pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.
Where does this storm rank with some other 'out of season' storms? Its actually not very impressive. In 2007, our area was hit by almost 2 feet (18" is what I measured) on April 16-17th. In early October 2006, a monster lake effect event pounded Buffalo, causing millions of dollars worth of damage since the heavy wet snow stuck to the leaves on trees and brought them down. So this is more just a nuisance storm than anything. One commonality between the three storms is the lack of willingness on the part of the media to be bold and predict snow. Granted, the models are all over the place with this, as can be expected. But I feel really confident about this storm, as I did the April 2007 storm.
I will update again late tonight. I have a test in Tropical Meteorology (so ironic, isn't it?) tomorrow, so I won't be able to update again until 10 or 11. Stay tuned though!
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Groundhog Day Speculation
The meteorological community is abuzz with excitement today. Numerous models are all in agreement with a major storm coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico Monday and then sitting somewhere over the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I thought that with all the hype around this storm already, people might be curious what I think.
First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.
Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.
The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.
The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.
February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.
Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!
First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.
Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.
The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.
The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.
February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.
Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Love That East Bias!
I hinted this morning in my forecast discussion that "If it [the storm] really gets its act together, we could end up on the high end of those totals [from last night's snow map]." Well, the storm remains very impressive on satellite and radar. One thing is very evident though. The eastward bias of the models I was talking about is showing up perhaps even more significantly than I thought it would.
When I looked at the models last night, the back edge of the precipitation was roughly from a Pittsburgh, PA to Rochester, NY line. Already though, precipitation is being detected on radar as far west as Cleveland and Buffalo (though it is probably not yet reaching the ground). The low right now is over northern Georgia and is already a good one hundred or so miles further west than it is supposed to be.
The National Weather Service and local media stations have picked up on this finally and have more or less come into agreement with what I was saying yesterday. Tompkins and Cortland Counties are now under WINTER STORM WARNINGS instead of the Advisories that were in effect. Those last until 10AM tomorrow. Since the low will track a little further inland, the precipitation may be a bit heavier and last a bit longer than last night. I also mentioned this morning the possibility of expanding the 6-10" range west. As you can see, I have now done that with this new data.
After school activities have been canceled for many schools in our area. I would say that the chances of a snow day have increased a bit. It is still far from a certainty, but there is certainly cause for hope!
Also, if you haven't heard yet, I have a new feature on the site that I just added this morning. If you look to the black bar on the right side of the page, you will see a link to the 'GrotonWeather Weather Chat.' The text will either say the chat is open, of that it is closed. If it is open, it means I am sitting in the chat room, ready to give you whatever information you want to know about the weather! So, if you see that the room is open, come on in!
When I looked at the models last night, the back edge of the precipitation was roughly from a Pittsburgh, PA to Rochester, NY line. Already though, precipitation is being detected on radar as far west as Cleveland and Buffalo (though it is probably not yet reaching the ground). The low right now is over northern Georgia and is already a good one hundred or so miles further west than it is supposed to be.
The National Weather Service and local media stations have picked up on this finally and have more or less come into agreement with what I was saying yesterday. Tompkins and Cortland Counties are now under WINTER STORM WARNINGS instead of the Advisories that were in effect. Those last until 10AM tomorrow. Since the low will track a little further inland, the precipitation may be a bit heavier and last a bit longer than last night. I also mentioned this morning the possibility of expanding the 6-10" range west. As you can see, I have now done that with this new data.
After school activities have been canceled for many schools in our area. I would say that the chances of a snow day have increased a bit. It is still far from a certainty, but there is certainly cause for hope!
Also, if you haven't heard yet, I have a new feature on the site that I just added this morning. If you look to the black bar on the right side of the page, you will see a link to the 'GrotonWeather Weather Chat.' The text will either say the chat is open, of that it is closed. If it is open, it means I am sitting in the chat room, ready to give you whatever information you want to know about the weather! So, if you see that the room is open, come on in!
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Snow Map
11AM Update: I just added a new feature to the website....a chat room! The link to the chat room can be found in the black bar on the right side of the page. More often than not, I will have the chat room closed. But, during times of severe or extreme weather, when I am on my computer forecasting, I will open up the chat for you to ask my questions about the weather. Please click the link to the right for more details...and if the room is open, stop in and say hi!
10:20AM Update: I have updated the main forecast page as promised. Next blog should be sometime between 4-7PM...probably sooner rather than later!
Original Post:
At last, here is the snow map. When one of the models came in, it still had the storm way east, with Ithaca getting an amazing 0.07" of snow from the storm. That isn't the model I prefer to use on a day to day basis anyways though, so I didn't put too much stock into. The model I do use takes a bit longer to become available (since it goes out a lot longer), so that is why the map has taken so long. That model seems to be settling in nicely with my earlier predictions now.
The temperatures during this storm are going to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30. Since wet snow doesn't accumulate as much as drier snow, I slightly lowered totals from what I pulled out of thin air earlier. As for snow days, at this time, I would probably say its a good idea to expect school on Friday, but someone in the area will likely wake up with a nice surprise three-day weekend.
My next update will likely not be a blog entry, but just my normal morning forecast update. Just click the banner at the very top of the page to see that.
10:20AM Update: I have updated the main forecast page as promised. Next blog should be sometime between 4-7PM...probably sooner rather than later!
Original Post:
At last, here is the snow map. When one of the models came in, it still had the storm way east, with Ithaca getting an amazing 0.07" of snow from the storm. That isn't the model I prefer to use on a day to day basis anyways though, so I didn't put too much stock into. The model I do use takes a bit longer to become available (since it goes out a lot longer), so that is why the map has taken so long. That model seems to be settling in nicely with my earlier predictions now.
The temperatures during this storm are going to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30. Since wet snow doesn't accumulate as much as drier snow, I slightly lowered totals from what I pulled out of thin air earlier. As for snow days, at this time, I would probably say its a good idea to expect school on Friday, but someone in the area will likely wake up with a nice surprise three-day weekend.
My next update will likely not be a blog entry, but just my normal morning forecast update. Just click the banner at the very top of the page to see that.
Here we go!
Winter Storm Watches have (finally) been posted for the grotonweather.com forecast area! I say finally because, if I had been working at the National Weather Service, I would have issued these watches yesterday. All season long, and going back into last season, the models have shown an eastward biased with storms coming up from the south. This is a large part of why a lot of last winter had a lot of hype about snow storms (myself included), only to have the storms start as snow, then change to ice and/or rain. The actual storm tracks have continuously come further west than the models suggest. So when I saw the models showing snow for Eastern New York and New England yesterday, I thought 'Thats going to hit CNY'....and now, it looks like it will.
The NWS has Winter Storm Warnings up for areas just south and east of us. I again have to say though...they are too far east! Even just a day or so ahead of this event, I do not trust the models to place the heaviest snow properly. So, I am diverging from them and the NWS and, while I haven't checked them, likely the local media as well.
So, what is this all about. An area of low pressure is over the southeast. As I said in this morning's discussion, severe thunderstorms, including torandoes, have been ongoing constantly since yesterday morning. This is indicative of the energy of this storm. As this storm comes up the coast, it will interact with the cold air left over from today's front, with the circulation just pulling more of it in. It will be a classic nor' easter...just not super powerful.
Snow will likely begin to fall in our area sometime in the late afternoon tomorrow and become heavy into the night. This storm will be a pretty quick mover, so that will help in keeping totals down. I also think that, even with the eastward biased, the heaviest snow will stay just east of our area. I haven't had enough time to hammer out a snow map yet, but, on a whim, I am thinking 5-9" is likely for most of Tompkins County and Southern Cayuga County, with perhaps 6-10" over Cortland County.
And now...what you all really want to know....will there be school on Friday? After my epic failing on predicting a snow day last February, I considered not even doing snow days this season...but, due to popular request, I will. Since this storm is coming through at night, I would say there is certainly a chance. Just how much of a chance remains to be seen. You will have to keep checking back to find out!
Next projected update: 10-11:30PM: Snow map!
The NWS has Winter Storm Warnings up for areas just south and east of us. I again have to say though...they are too far east! Even just a day or so ahead of this event, I do not trust the models to place the heaviest snow properly. So, I am diverging from them and the NWS and, while I haven't checked them, likely the local media as well.
So, what is this all about. An area of low pressure is over the southeast. As I said in this morning's discussion, severe thunderstorms, including torandoes, have been ongoing constantly since yesterday morning. This is indicative of the energy of this storm. As this storm comes up the coast, it will interact with the cold air left over from today's front, with the circulation just pulling more of it in. It will be a classic nor' easter...just not super powerful.
Snow will likely begin to fall in our area sometime in the late afternoon tomorrow and become heavy into the night. This storm will be a pretty quick mover, so that will help in keeping totals down. I also think that, even with the eastward biased, the heaviest snow will stay just east of our area. I haven't had enough time to hammer out a snow map yet, but, on a whim, I am thinking 5-9" is likely for most of Tompkins County and Southern Cayuga County, with perhaps 6-10" over Cortland County.
And now...what you all really want to know....will there be school on Friday? After my epic failing on predicting a snow day last February, I considered not even doing snow days this season...but, due to popular request, I will. Since this storm is coming through at night, I would say there is certainly a chance. Just how much of a chance remains to be seen. You will have to keep checking back to find out!
Next projected update: 10-11:30PM: Snow map!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Nor' Easter, then Lake Effect
Our nor' easter is starting to really wind up off of the New Jersey coast this morning. This has spread a solid area of precipitation from the Finger Lakes, east. Most of what you see on the radar is rain, but it has already changed over to snow in Binghamton and Scranton.
At 9AM, it was 37 in Ithaca, so that, combined with where it is already snowing in Binghamton, has made me expect a change over to snow a bit earlier than I was anticipating last night. This has been reflected in the higher snow amounts on the snow map below. For Groton specifically, since I placed us on the boundary between two areas, I would expect to see 2 or 3, maybe 4 inches downtown, with as much as 5 or 6 on the hills.
This storm should be well on its way out by midnight tonight. However, just as that storm departs, the Lake Effect machine will kick in for Wednesday and Wednesday night before tapering off Thursday. It is still too early to tell where exactly the heaviest lake effect will set up, and whether or not it will remain snow, but here is my best guess for snow intensity at this time:
If you want to help me out with this, as I sit up here in Oswego, it is very hard for me to know what exactly the precipiation type is elsewhere. It would be very helpful if you could leave a comment on here letting me know when you first see snow, no matter where you are. Current data from spotters is very imporatant to meteorologists, so I would really appreciate your observations! Thanks!
At 9AM, it was 37 in Ithaca, so that, combined with where it is already snowing in Binghamton, has made me expect a change over to snow a bit earlier than I was anticipating last night. This has been reflected in the higher snow amounts on the snow map below. For Groton specifically, since I placed us on the boundary between two areas, I would expect to see 2 or 3, maybe 4 inches downtown, with as much as 5 or 6 on the hills.
This storm should be well on its way out by midnight tonight. However, just as that storm departs, the Lake Effect machine will kick in for Wednesday and Wednesday night before tapering off Thursday. It is still too early to tell where exactly the heaviest lake effect will set up, and whether or not it will remain snow, but here is my best guess for snow intensity at this time:
If you want to help me out with this, as I sit up here in Oswego, it is very hard for me to know what exactly the precipiation type is elsewhere. It would be very helpful if you could leave a comment on here letting me know when you first see snow, no matter where you are. Current data from spotters is very imporatant to meteorologists, so I would really appreciate your observations! Thanks!
Monday, October 27, 2008
First snow of the season!
The past 24 hours have been crazy on the weather models. Yesterday, all but one model, the North American Mesoscale (NAM) were showing an area of low pressure heading into eastern New England, leaving Central New York more or less alone, with lake effect kicking in towards Tuesday night and Wednesday. The NAM, however, brought the storm much closer, giving our area its first accumulating snow of the year. Over the past 24 hours, however, the other models have come into agreement with the NAM, and suddenly we have a snow storm on our hands!
Now, keep in mind, I use 'snow storm' in the context of a normal October. We won't be seeing feet of snow, but for a first snow, this is pretty big. Here is what is happening:
An area of low pressure is beginning to form over North Carolina. Already moisture is spreading northward ahead of this, though most isn't reaching the ground yet. As this storm explodes and heads north, it will pull down some chilly air. That will make the precipitation that starts tonight and for the first part of tomorrow mostly rain. More importantly, however is that this rain will be snow not very high up in the atmosphere. As it melts, it will aid in cooling things down and changing precipitation over to snow. The higher elevations will see the change over first, probably as early as mid to late morning tomorrow. The lower elevations will begin to change over during the afternoon and evening hours. By tomorrow night, everyone should be seeing accumulating snow. Cayuga and Tompkins counties are not under any advisories, but Cortland county, with its higher hill tops, is under a Winter Weather Advisory.
The winds will be gusty with this as well. That, plus the heavy, wet nature of this snow could cause some branches to come down in the higher terrain. Had this come a week or two earlier, when the leaves were still on the trees, we would have some problems. We are lucky though and I am not anticipating many, if any, power outages.
This storm will be a quick mover, so real high totals aren't expected. The map below shows what to expect through 9AM Wednesday. Beyond that, Lake Effect snows will set up, but probably stay to our north, with additional accumulations. Stay tuned!
Now, keep in mind, I use 'snow storm' in the context of a normal October. We won't be seeing feet of snow, but for a first snow, this is pretty big. Here is what is happening:
An area of low pressure is beginning to form over North Carolina. Already moisture is spreading northward ahead of this, though most isn't reaching the ground yet. As this storm explodes and heads north, it will pull down some chilly air. That will make the precipitation that starts tonight and for the first part of tomorrow mostly rain. More importantly, however is that this rain will be snow not very high up in the atmosphere. As it melts, it will aid in cooling things down and changing precipitation over to snow. The higher elevations will see the change over first, probably as early as mid to late morning tomorrow. The lower elevations will begin to change over during the afternoon and evening hours. By tomorrow night, everyone should be seeing accumulating snow. Cayuga and Tompkins counties are not under any advisories, but Cortland county, with its higher hill tops, is under a Winter Weather Advisory.
The winds will be gusty with this as well. That, plus the heavy, wet nature of this snow could cause some branches to come down in the higher terrain. Had this come a week or two earlier, when the leaves were still on the trees, we would have some problems. We are lucky though and I am not anticipating many, if any, power outages.
This storm will be a quick mover, so real high totals aren't expected. The map below shows what to expect through 9AM Wednesday. Beyond that, Lake Effect snows will set up, but probably stay to our north, with additional accumulations. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
9:30 PM Storm Update
The heaviest of the precipitation is racing very rapidly into northern New England and the worst part of the storm has ended over our area. However, all that wrap around moisture I was talking about in my last post is sticking around and will continue to keep the light to at times moderate snows around overnight and tomorrow morning. The winds will continue to increase as well and the temperatures will drop overnight as well. This will allow for considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow, so even when it is not snowing or doing so lightly, travel will be difficult.
I am not quite as confident about a snowday now, but I am going to stick with my original forecast and say it will happen. Just because the heavy snow is over doesn't mean the effects of this storm won't continue well into the day tomorrow.
Here is the latest radar. I didn't bother to color-code it because it is a bite easier to see the different intensities of precipitation on the unmodified version. As you can see, all that snow to our southwest is still sitting there despite the storm being well into New England. As the main precipitation shield continues to lift away from our area, I am expecting a similar set up to form over our area; you can already see it happening in Western New York. Generally, only another 1-4" can be expected tonight with a few locally higher amounts. But again, the wind is going to be the more significant feature of this storm here on out.
PS: I am going to try to do one more update tonight before I go to bed, so if you are still up, check back around or just after midnight!
I am not quite as confident about a snowday now, but I am going to stick with my original forecast and say it will happen. Just because the heavy snow is over doesn't mean the effects of this storm won't continue well into the day tomorrow.
Here is the latest radar. I didn't bother to color-code it because it is a bite easier to see the different intensities of precipitation on the unmodified version. As you can see, all that snow to our southwest is still sitting there despite the storm being well into New England. As the main precipitation shield continues to lift away from our area, I am expecting a similar set up to form over our area; you can already see it happening in Western New York. Generally, only another 1-4" can be expected tonight with a few locally higher amounts. But again, the wind is going to be the more significant feature of this storm here on out.
PS: I am going to try to do one more update tonight before I go to bed, so if you are still up, check back around or just after midnight!
5PM Storm Update
The storm center is tracking across southern Pennsylvania right now and slowly turning northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over all of Central New York. Below is the latest radar image from weathertap, and there are a few things noteworthy about it.
1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....
2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while
2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.
3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.
What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.
Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.
1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....
2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while
2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.
3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.
What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.
Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.
Monday, February 25, 2008
STORM MODE: Blizzard conditions tomorrow night!
The models have continued their trend towards becoming colder and colder, so while I have been trying not to hype up this storm, its time to go with the worst case scenario with this system. It now appears very likely that rain will NOT mix in. Not only that, but the most intense part of the storm appears to track right over Central New York.
The snow will start tomorrow morning and continue through Wednesday. The heaviest of the snow looks to be later tomorrow and overnight. The winds with this storm will also really kick up, blowing the snow around. This will only make travel all the worse. Travel should be limited to emergencies only as roads will be nearly impassable. A snow-day Wednesday is all but a guarantee. Here is my updated snow map. As you can see, this is going to be a very big storm with many places getting over a foot, and some locally getting 18" or more!
The snow will start tomorrow morning and continue through Wednesday. The heaviest of the snow looks to be later tomorrow and overnight. The winds with this storm will also really kick up, blowing the snow around. This will only make travel all the worse. Travel should be limited to emergencies only as roads will be nearly impassable. A snow-day Wednesday is all but a guarantee. Here is my updated snow map. As you can see, this is going to be a very big storm with many places getting over a foot, and some locally getting 18" or more!
Tuesday-Wednesday Snow Map: 3PM Update
A large storm system is currently moving across the Midwest and will bring some nasty weather for Central New York tomorrow and early Wednesday. While there is still a bit of uncertainty with this storm, here is my best shot at a forecast:
Now-1AM: Increasing clouds
1AM-9AM: Light snow moving in
9AM-6PM: Snow possibly changing to rain
6PM-9AM: Heavy snow
Now, the big question is whether or not we will change to rain or not. It will be a very close call with this storm, but it looks like there will be at least a short period of rain tomorrow afternoon. Areas just to the north should stay snow. This is why on the map below, there is a region for locally higher amounts to our north. A good 6-12" is likely with this storm, unless, of course, the track is a lot farther north and we get more rain. But the trends have been making this storm colder, so if anything, I think we would go all snow before we went with more rain.
Snow-day chances: I think after-school activities will likely be canceled tomorrow and a snow day Wednesday is possible, but not an absolute slam-dunk forecast. We will have to see how things evolve tonight and into tomorrow! Stay tuned!
Now-1AM: Increasing clouds
1AM-9AM: Light snow moving in
9AM-6PM: Snow possibly changing to rain
6PM-9AM: Heavy snow
Now, the big question is whether or not we will change to rain or not. It will be a very close call with this storm, but it looks like there will be at least a short period of rain tomorrow afternoon. Areas just to the north should stay snow. This is why on the map below, there is a region for locally higher amounts to our north. A good 6-12" is likely with this storm, unless, of course, the track is a lot farther north and we get more rain. But the trends have been making this storm colder, so if anything, I think we would go all snow before we went with more rain.
Snow-day chances: I think after-school activities will likely be canceled tomorrow and a snow day Wednesday is possible, but not an absolute slam-dunk forecast. We will have to see how things evolve tonight and into tomorrow! Stay tuned!
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Eclipse Photo, Snow Map
Before I get onto the storm that will basically miss us tomorrow, I wanted to share a picture of last night's lunar eclipse that my dad took! Up here in Oswego, the lake effect band shifted just far enough south for me to see the eclipse, but I couldn't get any good pictures. So, in case you missed it last night, here is my dads picture! Thanks dad!
Alright, now onto the storm tomorrow. The models have finally started to come into some sort of agreement on the path of this storm. There is still some uncertainty, but it looks like this storm will stay well south of the area.
The uncertainty left with the storm has mostly to do with the southern part of the map, in the 3-7" range. Within that area, especially in the southeast part of that range, there could be some localized higher amounts. But for Groton and surrounding areas, it only looks like a couple inches will fall at the most.
Alright, now onto the storm tomorrow. The models have finally started to come into some sort of agreement on the path of this storm. There is still some uncertainty, but it looks like this storm will stay well south of the area.
The uncertainty left with the storm has mostly to do with the southern part of the map, in the 3-7" range. Within that area, especially in the southeast part of that range, there could be some localized higher amounts. But for Groton and surrounding areas, it only looks like a couple inches will fall at the most.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Wasting no time!
Well, the first storm has pulled off and accelerated, meaning even the far eastern reaches of New England are mostly precipitation free. I recorded 6.4" here at my house...if you have any measurements, feel free to send them in!
Now, its already time to focus on the next storm. The National Weather Service didn't give us much of a break and has already issued a Winter Storm Watch. Piecing together what this says and what Henry Margusity of accuweather.com has been saying, I think our chances for a foot or more are pretty decent. I will issue a map for the entire East Coast sometime tomorrow and will likely go into "storm mode" Saturday afternoon. The snow should start sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Keep checking back for updates as things come together!
Now, its already time to focus on the next storm. The National Weather Service didn't give us much of a break and has already issued a Winter Storm Watch. Piecing together what this says and what Henry Margusity of accuweather.com has been saying, I think our chances for a foot or more are pretty decent. I will issue a map for the entire East Coast sometime tomorrow and will likely go into "storm mode" Saturday afternoon. The snow should start sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night and last into Sunday night. Keep checking back for updates as things come together!
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Duel Storms Update: 11PM Wednesday
Two significant winter storms will effect the area over the next 5 days, the first one being tomorrow and the second one on Sunday. Here are my latest thoughts:
For tomorrow's storm, it appears we are in for a 4-8 hour period of some very heavy snow. This will likely fall tomorrow afternoon, making the trip back from school hazardous. I would not be surprised if school around the region let out early tomorrow and can almost assure you that after school and evening activities will be canceled. We are looking at a good 5"-9", maybe 10" or 11" snowfall tomorrow. The snow should be tapering off towards evening. I understand the Class of 2008 is heading to New York City tomorrow night...if someone would let me know what time they are planning on leaving, I could try to piece together a forecast for the trip down. But unless I know what time departure is, I can't really say if this trip will get snowed out or not...but Friday should see an improvement in the weather that will last into Saturday until....
...the bigger of the two storms on Sunday! This storm looks to be a classical nor' easter, with plenty of cold, wind and snow in store for much of the Northeast. Here in Central New York, it looks like the worst may come Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavy, blowing snow making travel very dangerous. This storm will have more moisture to work with than Thursday's, so snow totals should be higher. In fact, this system may be able to pick up some extra moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Olga. I haven't mentioned Olga before partially because I have been busy, but also because hurricane season ended November 30th. However, Olga formed near Hispaniola earlier this week and may have its moisture sucked into this storm. Back here, it looks like we could be in store for a foot or more of snow from this one. Stay tuned over the next couple of days as this storm gets ironed out.
For tomorrow's storm, it appears we are in for a 4-8 hour period of some very heavy snow. This will likely fall tomorrow afternoon, making the trip back from school hazardous. I would not be surprised if school around the region let out early tomorrow and can almost assure you that after school and evening activities will be canceled. We are looking at a good 5"-9", maybe 10" or 11" snowfall tomorrow. The snow should be tapering off towards evening. I understand the Class of 2008 is heading to New York City tomorrow night...if someone would let me know what time they are planning on leaving, I could try to piece together a forecast for the trip down. But unless I know what time departure is, I can't really say if this trip will get snowed out or not...but Friday should see an improvement in the weather that will last into Saturday until....
...the bigger of the two storms on Sunday! This storm looks to be a classical nor' easter, with plenty of cold, wind and snow in store for much of the Northeast. Here in Central New York, it looks like the worst may come Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavy, blowing snow making travel very dangerous. This storm will have more moisture to work with than Thursday's, so snow totals should be higher. In fact, this system may be able to pick up some extra moisture from ex-Tropical Storm Olga. I haven't mentioned Olga before partially because I have been busy, but also because hurricane season ended November 30th. However, Olga formed near Hispaniola earlier this week and may have its moisture sucked into this storm. Back here, it looks like we could be in store for a foot or more of snow from this one. Stay tuned over the next couple of days as this storm gets ironed out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)