Impossible Forecast: 11PM Update

Like every other winter storm this winter, the question once again is whether or not sleet will mix with the snow, and if so, how much. Looking at the latest models, the air directly above Groton is forecast to reach about 32 degrees aloft. Since the models are rarely right on, will we end up above freezing, or below freezing aloft?

I am going to say that, even if it does mix with sleet, it will not do it for long, meaning our snow totals shouldn't be effected. Just to our south though, you will see I have cut back on the totals quite a bit. Stay tuned as I try to do the impossible tomorrow and forecast this thing.

Surprise Storm Tomorrow Night!

The weather has been so active over the past week, including the rapid temperature drop and heavy snow squalls yesterday and the lake effect blizzard up here in Oswego, this storm has kind of snuck up on us. However, it now looks like this storm may be one of the biggest for the area so far this winter. I've run the morning models, which are agreeing with each other and last night's models, so here is my snow map.



Most of this snow will fall overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday. Since the majority of the storm will be during the overnight and early morning hours, I do think a snow day is a pretty decent bet Wednesday. I will keep updating and tweaking the map as I see fit, so stay tuned!

11 AM Ice Storm Update

Precipitation continues to fall across the entire region and will continue to do so through the day. Below I have a radar loop from WeatherTap ending at about 11AM so you can see how much still has to come. I have also put it in winter mode, for a rough estimate of snow (blue), ice (pink) and rain (green). It is important to note that these "winter" radars are not always accurate with what type of precip is falling where...but it is still useful to get a general idea.



As you can see, there is still a long ways to go with this storm. It is only 30 degrees at my house, so at least a couple more hours of ice is likely.