Winter Over? Not so fast...

Update: 1:30pm
I just wanted to add a comment here. I have been reached out to by multiple members of the Channel9 Storm Team to discuss this all further. Additionally, they posted a second post on their Facebook page to give greater clarification to their statement. This is why I started my blog post below praising the Storm Team meteorologists and expressing my great respect for them!

I've considered taking this blog down all together based on the conversations I've had with the Storm Team. I've decided to leave it up, however, because I do feel that public interpretation of forecasts is a crucial topic. I think this whole situation can shed some light on the topic for meteorologists and the public alike. Forecasting is difficult enough. Expressing the forecast to the public is another thing entirely.

Original Post:
Every once in a while, I come across a forecast that, quite honestly, makes my skin crawl. I try not to be judgmental about them- I've made plenty of bone-headed forecasts myself. At the same time though, sometimes something just needs to be said.

Let me preface my forthcoming rant with the following: I have a great deal of respect for the meteorologists at News Channel 9. I have met a number of them and they are great people. Their forecasts are typically very good and they are extremely intelligent. They do a great job.

Just not this time. This isn't meant to be an attack on them in any way, but the record needs to be set straight. It is February 17th. Historically, we could see significant snow well into April. (see April 16-17, 2007 for example). I cannot fathom how anyone can declare winter over at this stage, but that is what Channel 9 did:

First, let's look at the graphic that they are using to declare winter over. It is a probability map put out by the Climate Prediction Center for March, April and May. Areas in orange have a chance of seeing above normal temperatures, while areas in blue may see cooler than normal temperatures. Areas in white have an equal probability of seeing either cold, warm or normal temperatures. Let's zoom in and take a closer look at the Northeast:

Now, there are three possibilities for what can actually happen. We can be above average, below average, or right at normal. So in the white, "equal chance" areas, the probabilities of each of those three outcomes is about 33%. Each shade of orange/blue represents a greater chance of seeing warmer/colder temperatures. The Climate Prediction Center labels each shade with a percent value.  I have marked the 40% line, as it was a bit hard to see. Areas inside that 40% line, that is in the darker orange shade, have a 40% or greater chance of seeing above normal temperatures. The lighter orange shade, which includes Central New York, is predicted to have a 33-40% chance of seeing above normal temperatures. Given that the 33% line is very close to us, it can be assumed that it is more like a 33-35% chance.

That means we have about a 2% chance more than normal of seeing above normal temperatures.

Since the chances of a warm March, April and May are up by about 2%, and probabilities must add up to 100%, we can assume that the probabilities of a colder than normal March, April and May are running at about 31% and a normal period at 33%. Let's look at this forecast in another way:

Honestly, can you see much of a difference? Yes, we have a higher chance of above normal temperatures than anything else. But that increased chance is such a minor increase. If these were medical test results, would we want our doctors declaring definitely that the test was conclusive one way or another with a 35-33-31 distribution? I think not.

The other thing to consider is how accurate these probability forecasts are in the first place. The following as a graphic the Climate Prediction Center publishes along with their seasonal forecasts. It looks confusing, but I will explain it:

First, some background. There are numerous ways to calculate forecast accuracy. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is just one of those ways. A HSS of 100 means the forecast was perfect. A HSS of -50 is the worst possible forecast, and a HSS of 0 means the forecast was as good as a random guess.

We are looking at the red lines, which are labeled 'non-CL'. These 'non-CL' lines are the skill of forecasts where either colder than normal or warmer than normal forecasts are made. The year-to-year changes between these red lines are huge. You will notice a horizontal red line at 20. This is the average HSS for non-CL predictions from 1995-2008. The score is 20. Remember, a perfect forecast is 100 and a random guess is 0. A 20 is an extremely poor score and shows just how difficult it is to predict temperatures for the next three months.

Putting these two things together, we have a very slim chance of warmer weather based on a forecast that is much closer to a random guess than a perfect forecast.

With this knowledge, can you see why this upsets me? Meteorologists have an unspoken contract with the public to give accurate, informative forecasts. We have to do this to build trust between the meteorologist and the public. Why? Because when a tornado is bearing down on your neighborhood, or a major snow storm is on the way, or anything else that threatens lives and property, we need people to listen to us. Way too often, meteorologists, particularly in the media, betray this trust with garbage statements like this.

It needs to stop.

Now, I commented on that Facebook post and the response I got was "our forecasts are based on more than just what we are showing here- this graphic just happens to sum things up nicely." My argument is that 1) the graphic really shows nothing, as I explained previously and 2) there is no expression of uncertainty or these other factors. All that is said is 'winter is over.' I'm not against long-range forecasting. I am against long-range forecasts that don't express the inherent extreme uncertainty that they contain. And this is one of the worst offenders I've seen.

Might they end up being right? Sure. They might. If they are, was it skill or luck? I'll let you be the judge.

The Hype Machine

My good friend, classmate and colleague Evan Duffey posted a wonderful piece on Syracuse.com this morning. He has given me permission to repost it here. There are a lot of excellent points he makes about how big storms get blown way out of proportion through hear-say and media hype. Take a look:

Storm under-performs, public and media hype make it worse

For those of you wondering why you children's classes were canceled, or what happened to the 18"+ of snow you were expecting because your neighbors told you it would happen, I have your answer. The storm grew to massive size and intensity - in a special place I call overexcited media and populace. The storm, while no pushover, is not that epic, and should never have been treated as so.

In talking to fellow Meteorologist and Syracuse.com blogger Andrew Montreuil, he agrees he is upset at how this storm got hyped up.

While the storm will probably leave a decent impact on the area, talk of 18", 2 feet, etc. have been floating around either word of mouth or the internet. My max total event given during the entire even was 14".

Which brings me to a point I would like to bring up. A MAX snowfall accumulation is not what we expect, it's more then what we expect. When a meteorologist puts up a snowfall range, even I put a little extra on that top number just in case the unexpected occurs. Sadly the public takes this number as what they are going to get. For all of you interested in weather, try to remember this when reading forecasts and discussions.

Now to the meat - why did this storm under-perform even Meteorologists predictions for a storm? I hinted at the reason in a comment I made a few days ago, in my first post about the storm. I said "I think the upper limits of snowfall are possible only if warm, dry air doesn't work its way in too far North." This is pretty much what happened.

Radar overnight revealed a large dry slot was working into the storm. Dry-slots are almost always destructive to storms, taking away some of their thermodynamic strength, and obviously precipitation is hard pressed to be found in an area called a dry slot.

Blogger Drew Montreuil was involved in a Q&A session recently, and one of them really brings to light a lot about the forecast and expectations. Here is the quote:

...just in my day today I have overhead people talking about how we are supposed to get 2 feet of snow and such. These are over exaggerations. Often times, forecasts for big storms seem to take a life of their own. People mishear or misread things and, like a massive game of telephone, things get blown out of proportion. Another common mistake I see all the time is people assuming the high end of a snow prediction will be what happens. If there is a forecast for 6-12", but only 5" falls....it really is a decent forecast. But the hype before hand makes it seem like a bust.

To answer the question directly...I could see this "busting" slightly, yes. There are some indications drier air may work in quicker than what was earlier thought. This could bring the snow to an end a bit quicker, and keep us more in the 4-7" range instead of 6-10". Its a developing situation, and one can never be too sure they have the forecast nailed until the event actually happens...

Hopefully your day isn't too upset by the hype and over forecast of this winter storm, and please don't blame meteorologists. We aren't all that wrong.

Winter's Fury Unleashed

As posted by Drew Montreuil on Syracuse.com, 1/21/11

Old Man Winter sure is angry these days, and we will not be escaping his wrath over the next week or so. The first fits of his anger are already being felt across much of the northern half of the country. Yet another Nor'easter is striking parts of New England. This storm brought us 3-6" of snow overnight, but parts of Maine will see over a foot.

In the Midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an 'Extreme Cold Warning' for parts of Minnesota last night. The Extreme Cold Warning is a new warning the NWS is trying out for temperatures lower than -40º. The warning surely verified, as temperatures this morning in International Falls, Minnesota got down to a mind-numbing -46º. Even Rochester, Minnesota, in the southern part of the state, dropped to -20º.

Some of the cold is on the way for us, but Old Man Winter has another shot to throw at us first: another bout of heavy lake effect snow. Schools across northern Cayuga, northern Onondaga and Oswego counties are dismissing early in anticipation of the lake effect blitz.

A huge contributor to heavy lake effect snow in a set-up like today's is whether or not moisture from the Upper Great Lakes is able to feed the Lake Ontario band. Observations from Canada this morning are indicating that the connection is being made, which only will increase the chances of heavy snow.

The lake effect will start up this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning before only gradually weakening and moving northward tomorrow. Some areas across Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga counties could see upwards of 2 feet by late tomorrow morning.

If that was not bad enough, the cold temperatures and winds will bring wind chills down to potentially dangerous levels late this afternoon and tonight. Even those not impacted by the lake effect will want to make sure they are properly bundled up against the cold.

This is all just the beginning though, and the next assault from Winter's War comes in Sunday and Monday. The bitter cold air mass that was over Minnesota this morning will work its way over us later this weekend.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach 10º, and Sunday night will be the coldest night we have seen in a few years. Many areas across Central New York will see the mercury drop to -10º, and some of the outlying areas may even see -20º.

And now, could a grand finale to Old Man Winter's assault be in the works? The latest long range weather models are showing hints of another coastal storm in the works for the middle of next week. If the current model projections hold true, Central New York could be looking at its biggest widespread snow of the season so far. While it is way too early to tell whether or not that will come to pass, it will need to be watched as we head into next week.

On the bright side...at least its not -46º!

A Look at Watch #280

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch that stretches across almost all of New York State. It remains in effect until 7pm tonight. Here is a look at the exact counties it includes. As you can see, Tompkins, Cortland and S. Cayuga are right in the middle of it.


The main threat from this event is going to be damaging winds. Hail will also be possible, and my gut feeling is there will be a tornado somewhere in the watch box. The official probabilities that the SPC has put with the watch:
Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

Since it is at the top of the hour, the current observations and indicies will not be in for another 20-40 minutes. Looking at the data from noon, though, it is obvious to me that the atmosphere is quickly destabilizing. Also, a pocket of strong winds in the upper atmosphere is beginning to move into Western New York, and will spread over the rest of the state, enhancing the thunderstorms. Storms are going to develop from west to east, and have already begun to fire up across Western New York, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These storms should organize into a squall line eventually, which is when the greatest threat for wind damage will be. The highest tornado and hail threat will be just prior to that, when the storms are more individual cells.

Be sure to keep checking back through the afternoon for the latest!

Morning Storm Update

It is now quarter after 10am, and everything is going pretty much as expected. The snow started here in Groton about an hour ago, and already visibilities are down to roughly a mile as the snow has started to pick up in intensity. Looking at the official 10AM observations, Ithaca is reporting light snow, with moderate snow in Rochester, Penn Yan, and Dansville, and heavy snow falling in Buffalo. Over the next hour, expect the snow to continue to increase in intensity to the rate of an inch or so an hour. The snow will continue at least at that intensity, likely reaching 2" per hour at times, through the afternoon. Heavy and moderate snow is being reported back through Michigan. There is actually heavy snow in Wisconsin as well, but I think Lake Michigan is enhancing that snow since the winds are out of the northeast. Here is a look at the radar (from 9:30...but that is recent enough to get the point across). You can see any mixed precipitation is well south, and the snow extends back into the areas I just described. All this is moving more or less east-southeast.



Bottom line is the snow is going to come down hard very soon and continue at rates of 1-2" per hour until at least sundown. There may even be some thunder and lightning in the snow during the early and mid afternoon. Please leave a comment here, or log onto the chat (assuming it is open) and report any thunder! The chat room will likely be open most of the day today as well. I will continue to update this blog hourly, probably just with snow totals, but also any new information that comes in.

Another Friday Snow Storm

Another Friday, another snow storm for Central New York. Unlike last week's storm, this storm is not a nor' easter. It is pretty much moving west to east, so there is no worry about the models having an eastward bias. That makes my life a little easier this time around. I decided to do a snow map after all, even though the entire GrotonWeather forecast area should get the same amount.



As you can see, this will be a big storm, despite its relatively short duration. The snow will being to move in during the morning, before coming heavy by 10 or 11AM. It will really come down hard for a period of 6-8 hours, likely exceeding an inch per hour at times. By the evening, it will quickly taper off to just flurries over night.

I am going to dinner now, but once I get back (by 6:30-7), I will open the chatroom to field questions...and I will likely be there a good part of the night!

Love That East Bias!

I hinted this morning in my forecast discussion that "If it [the storm] really gets its act together, we could end up on the high end of those totals [from last night's snow map]." Well, the storm remains very impressive on satellite and radar. One thing is very evident though. The eastward bias of the models I was talking about is showing up perhaps even more significantly than I thought it would.

When I looked at the models last night, the back edge of the precipitation was roughly from a Pittsburgh, PA to Rochester, NY line. Already though, precipitation is being detected on radar as far west as Cleveland and Buffalo (though it is probably not yet reaching the ground). The low right now is over northern Georgia and is already a good one hundred or so miles further west than it is supposed to be.

The National Weather Service and local media stations have picked up on this finally and have more or less come into agreement with what I was saying yesterday. Tompkins and Cortland Counties are now under WINTER STORM WARNINGS instead of the Advisories that were in effect. Those last until 10AM tomorrow. Since the low will track a little further inland, the precipitation may be a bit heavier and last a bit longer than last night. I also mentioned this morning the possibility of expanding the 6-10" range west. As you can see, I have now done that with this new data.



After school activities have been canceled for many schools in our area. I would say that the chances of a snow day have increased a bit. It is still far from a certainty, but there is certainly cause for hope!

Also, if you haven't heard yet, I have a new feature on the site that I just added this morning. If you look to the black bar on the right side of the page, you will see a link to the 'GrotonWeather Weather Chat.' The text will either say the chat is open, of that it is closed. If it is open, it means I am sitting in the chat room, ready to give you whatever information you want to know about the weather! So, if you see that the room is open, come on in!

Snow Map

11AM Update: I just added a new feature to the website....a chat room! The link to the chat room can be found in the black bar on the right side of the page. More often than not, I will have the chat room closed. But, during times of severe or extreme weather, when I am on my computer forecasting, I will open up the chat for you to ask my questions about the weather. Please click the link to the right for more details...and if the room is open, stop in and say hi!

10:20AM Update: I have updated the main forecast page as promised. Next blog should be sometime between 4-7PM...probably sooner rather than later!

Original Post:
At last, here is the snow map. When one of the models came in, it still had the storm way east, with Ithaca getting an amazing 0.07" of snow from the storm. That isn't the model I prefer to use on a day to day basis anyways though, so I didn't put too much stock into. The model I do use takes a bit longer to become available (since it goes out a lot longer), so that is why the map has taken so long. That model seems to be settling in nicely with my earlier predictions now.

The temperatures during this storm are going to generally be in the upper 20s to near 30. Since wet snow doesn't accumulate as much as drier snow, I slightly lowered totals from what I pulled out of thin air earlier. As for snow days, at this time, I would probably say its a good idea to expect school on Friday, but someone in the area will likely wake up with a nice surprise three-day weekend.



My next update will likely not be a blog entry, but just my normal morning forecast update. Just click the banner at the very top of the page to see that.

Here we go!

Winter Storm Watches have (finally) been posted for the grotonweather.com forecast area! I say finally because, if I had been working at the National Weather Service, I would have issued these watches yesterday. All season long, and going back into last season, the models have shown an eastward biased with storms coming up from the south. This is a large part of why a lot of last winter had a lot of hype about snow storms (myself included), only to have the storms start as snow, then change to ice and/or rain. The actual storm tracks have continuously come further west than the models suggest. So when I saw the models showing snow for Eastern New York and New England yesterday, I thought 'Thats going to hit CNY'....and now, it looks like it will.

The NWS has Winter Storm Warnings up for areas just south and east of us. I again have to say though...they are too far east! Even just a day or so ahead of this event, I do not trust the models to place the heaviest snow properly. So, I am diverging from them and the NWS and, while I haven't checked them, likely the local media as well.

So, what is this all about. An area of low pressure is over the southeast. As I said in this morning's discussion, severe thunderstorms, including torandoes, have been ongoing constantly since yesterday morning. This is indicative of the energy of this storm. As this storm comes up the coast, it will interact with the cold air left over from today's front, with the circulation just pulling more of it in. It will be a classic nor' easter...just not super powerful.

Snow will likely begin to fall in our area sometime in the late afternoon tomorrow and become heavy into the night. This storm will be a pretty quick mover, so that will help in keeping totals down. I also think that, even with the eastward biased, the heaviest snow will stay just east of our area. I haven't had enough time to hammer out a snow map yet, but, on a whim, I am thinking 5-9" is likely for most of Tompkins County and Southern Cayuga County, with perhaps 6-10" over Cortland County.

And now...what you all really want to know....will there be school on Friday? After my epic failing on predicting a snow day last February, I considered not even doing snow days this season...but, due to popular request, I will. Since this storm is coming through at night, I would say there is certainly a chance. Just how much of a chance remains to be seen. You will have to keep checking back to find out!

Next projected update: 10-11:30PM: Snow map!

3PM Snow Update

Sorry this update is a bit later than I promised. I ran into some difficulties with making the snow map.

The lake effect has been pretty disorganized through the day as winds haven't really aligned themselves well yet. The models showed this happening relatively well. This disorganization should continue until about sunset, when things really start to get going. I am expecting multiple bands of lake effect to form, with probably two main bands. They will move around a bit overnight, so plenty of areas should see some high snow totals. Here is what I am thinking for amounts by 9AM tomorrow morning:



As with any lake effect event, not every area within each contour will get that amount of snow and the variance from one spot to another can be very large. So, that snow map shows the most likely amounts that are to occur in each area.

Tomorrow, the lake effect should calm down as the day gets into the afternoon. Additional accumulations tomorrow will likely be anywhere from 1-4" in the white and light blue areas, to 3-7" in the darker blue.

Nor' Easter, then Lake Effect

Our nor' easter is starting to really wind up off of the New Jersey coast this morning. This has spread a solid area of precipitation from the Finger Lakes, east. Most of what you see on the radar is rain, but it has already changed over to snow in Binghamton and Scranton.


At 9AM, it was 37 in Ithaca, so that, combined with where it is already snowing in Binghamton, has made me expect a change over to snow a bit earlier than I was anticipating last night. This has been reflected in the higher snow amounts on the snow map below. For Groton specifically, since I placed us on the boundary between two areas, I would expect to see 2 or 3, maybe 4 inches downtown, with as much as 5 or 6 on the hills.

This storm should be well on its way out by midnight tonight. However, just as that storm departs, the Lake Effect machine will kick in for Wednesday and Wednesday night before tapering off Thursday. It is still too early to tell where exactly the heaviest lake effect will set up, and whether or not it will remain snow, but here is my best guess for snow intensity at this time:

If you want to help me out with this, as I sit up here in Oswego, it is very hard for me to know what exactly the precipiation type is elsewhere. It would be very helpful if you could leave a comment on here letting me know when you first see snow, no matter where you are. Current data from spotters is very imporatant to meteorologists, so I would really appreciate your observations! Thanks!

5PM Storm Update

The storm center is tracking across southern Pennsylvania right now and slowly turning northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over all of Central New York. Below is the latest radar image from weathertap, and there are a few things noteworthy about it.


1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....

2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while

2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.

3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.

What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.

Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.

STORM MODE: Blizzard conditions tomorrow night!

The models have continued their trend towards becoming colder and colder, so while I have been trying not to hype up this storm, its time to go with the worst case scenario with this system. It now appears very likely that rain will NOT mix in. Not only that, but the most intense part of the storm appears to track right over Central New York.

The snow will start tomorrow morning and continue through Wednesday. The heaviest of the snow looks to be later tomorrow and overnight. The winds with this storm will also really kick up, blowing the snow around. This will only make travel all the worse. Travel should be limited to emergencies only as roads will be nearly impassable. A snow-day Wednesday is all but a guarantee. Here is my updated snow map. As you can see, this is going to be a very big storm with many places getting over a foot, and some locally getting 18" or more!

Tuesday-Wednesday Snow Map: 3PM Update

A large storm system is currently moving across the Midwest and will bring some nasty weather for Central New York tomorrow and early Wednesday. While there is still a bit of uncertainty with this storm, here is my best shot at a forecast:

Now-1AM: Increasing clouds
1AM-9AM: Light snow moving in
9AM-6PM: Snow possibly changing to rain
6PM-9AM: Heavy snow

Now, the big question is whether or not we will change to rain or not. It will be a very close call with this storm, but it looks like there will be at least a short period of rain tomorrow afternoon. Areas just to the north should stay snow. This is why on the map below, there is a region for locally higher amounts to our north. A good 6-12" is likely with this storm, unless, of course, the track is a lot farther north and we get more rain. But the trends have been making this storm colder, so if anything, I think we would go all snow before we went with more rain.



Snow-day chances: I think after-school activities will likely be canceled tomorrow and a snow day Wednesday is possible, but not an absolute slam-dunk forecast. We will have to see how things evolve tonight and into tomorrow! Stay tuned!

6PM Storm Update

I have decided to not make any more changes to my last snow map. I like the amounts on the low end of the ranges of we get more sleet, and the upper end looks good for a mostly snow event. I think it will probably be on the lower end, but that isn't certain. It is such a close call with this storm; every source I have checked seems to say something different! That being said, its time to watch what happens and how the storm unfolds and make short-term forecasts as opposed to trying to figure out what could happen...because at this point, that is pretty much impossible.

So, here is the latest radar from weathertap.com covering the entire Northeast.



As you can see, snow (blue) has overspread the region and there is quite a bit out there. Also interesting to note is the very slow progress of the pink line northward. That pink line is where the precipitation is sleet and freezing rain. Expect that to be a lot closer tonight when I post another radar near 11PM.

So for the rest of this evening, expect snow, heavy at times and quickly accumulating since it is so cold. This will make travel difficult. By 11PM tonight, most areas will have already seen a good 2-5", with some localized amounts upwards of 6" or 7". Feel free to send me your measurements! Just leave a comment right here on the blog!

Surprise Storm Tomorrow Night!

The weather has been so active over the past week, including the rapid temperature drop and heavy snow squalls yesterday and the lake effect blizzard up here in Oswego, this storm has kind of snuck up on us. However, it now looks like this storm may be one of the biggest for the area so far this winter. I've run the morning models, which are agreeing with each other and last night's models, so here is my snow map.



Most of this snow will fall overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday. Since the majority of the storm will be during the overnight and early morning hours, I do think a snow day is a pretty decent bet Wednesday. I will keep updating and tweaking the map as I see fit, so stay tuned!

11 AM Ice Storm Update

Precipitation continues to fall across the entire region and will continue to do so through the day. Below I have a radar loop from WeatherTap ending at about 11AM so you can see how much still has to come. I have also put it in winter mode, for a rough estimate of snow (blue), ice (pink) and rain (green). It is important to note that these "winter" radars are not always accurate with what type of precip is falling where...but it is still useful to get a general idea.



As you can see, there is still a long ways to go with this storm. It is only 30 degrees at my house, so at least a couple more hours of ice is likely.

So it begins!

The snow has started to fall here ever so lightly, but it is just the start of things to come. Despite most other people still insisting on sleet mixing in, I am sticking to my guns and saying this will not happen. So far, it looks like conditions are starting to favor the all snow forecast.

Temperatures at the surface are in the 30's all the way into North Carolina. Another interesting thing going on in the Carolinas is the winds and pressures are starting to indicate the development of the coastal storm. This is happening way faster than the models projected. As a result, the low to the west of the Appalachian Mountains will not be as strong or make it as far north as the models show. This will in turn mean the warm air won't get in here...not that it would have an easy time doing so since the cold air is so entrenched anyways.

Another thing about the models and cold air is showing up over Ohio. The models had temperatures there in the upper 30's and low 40's...but instead, temperatures have stuck near or just above freezing. So the models are too warm as well, which also translates to a lower chance of sleet here.

All in all the models have not been handling this well so I have pretty much thrown out the recent runs and my thinking from the previous days has not changed. The only thing I would change on my snowmap from last night would be to extend the 12-18" line to include more of Western New York and maybe up the 18" to 20" or even 24". Other than that, everything looks good locally.

Now, as you wake up tomorrow, there will likely already be at least 3-6" of new snow. As the day goes on, the snow will become very heavy and the winds will pick up as well. This will make travel very, very dangerous, so if you don't have to go out tomorrow, stay home. This will continue into tomorrow night before tapering off sometime after midnight.

2PM Update

The Severe Weather Expert at Accuweather.com (Henry Margusity) has updated his analysis of the threat for today. He generally reflects what the Storm Prediction Center implied and my main concern going through today.

The clouds and rain have helped stabilize the atmosphere. However, there is a wave of energy lifting northward from West Virginia. It is this enhanced energy, combined with all the moisture and strong winds in the atmosphere, that will get things going in a few hours. Henry said to expect about a dozen storm reports total...I still think there might be a bit more, maybe 15-20 across the whole northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Expect the next update later this afternoon as storms begin to form!

Friday Morning Thoughts

Clouds and rain showers that are left over from yesterday's storms are keeping us from getting the sun out this morning. This will probably prevent a massive, widespread severe weather outbreak from occurring. However, I still think there is a good chance of some really nasty weather late this afternoon. Normally, a great deal of instability is needed to get lots of severe weather going. One of the easiest ways to get this is to get the sun out. However, this storm's power is in the winds aloft blowing strongly one way and the winds lower in the atmosphere blowing strong in a different direction. This is called "shear" and is important for tornadoes and damaging winds.

Now, lets take a look at yesterday's latest storm report map:


I want to point out the smattering of red (tornadoes) in Michigan. I checked back to see what their weather conditions were like at this time yesterday. Surprisingly, I found very similar conditions to what we have now: Temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's, dew points in the mid to upper 60's...and most importantly, clouds. Temperatures didn't rise much above the low to mid 70's as well....yet they still got hammered.

Now...we are not Michigan and there are many other factors that will prevent us from having the extent of severe weather that they had. However, the potential is most certainly there for lots of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. Check back for another update probably around 12:30-1PM.