Late-May News and Updates

Hello Grotonweather Fans! I have been working very hard over the past couple of months on new and exciting things. I thought I would type up a blog to explain and promote some of these things.

First off is Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com), my new weather forecasting and consulting business. It is my hope that Finger Lakes Weather will become my career, helping local businesses, organizations, and the public with private and customizable weather forecasts. Finger Lakes Weather offers a variety of "Forecast Packages" tailored specifically towards various groups. For the spring, I offered a frost forecast package and was able to do some free-trial forecasting for Fox Run Vineyards and Three Brothers Vineyards, both on Seneca Lake. I have plans for a forecast package for construction workers. Right now, I am offering a special on vacation forecasting...but more on that later. Check out Finger Lakes Weather (the website again is www.fl-weather.com) and join the Finger Lakes Facebook page.

Next up is the Grotonweather Radar Page (www.grotonweather.com/radar). I recently got some top-notch radar software that is used by many meteorologists, especially storm chasers and others interested in thunderstorms. This software allows me to upload the radar to the website, so that is what I have done. Furthermore, I can display things such as areas of possible hail, rotation in thunderstorms, winds, and watches and warnings. I can also zoom right in on a storm down to street-level. So far, this has been a HUGE success with hundred of views despite an overall quiet thunderstorm season thusfar.

A severe thunderstorm approaches Ithaca.

Success does not come without price, however. And in this case, the price is measured in bandwidth. For those not familiar, bandwidth is basically the amount of data transferred to and from a website. The radar page uploads large image files every few minutes and quickly ate up my monthly bandwidth limit. That in turn forced me to purchase a more expensive hosting plan. My costs for running Grotonweather.com, not including time spent, is now approaching $200 a year.

Since 2006, when I started this operation, I have not received any revenue from my website. I am dedicated to keeping the website free. As costs continue to rise, something has to be done to offset some of these costs. Rather than charge money for Grotonweather and rather than flat out asking for donations, I decided a fund-raiser would be the best idea.

This is where the vacation forecasting package from Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com/vacation) comes back into play. As a fund-raiser, I am offering this service at a reduced price of just $10 per day or $50 per week. What does that entail? I will forecast for your travels to and from your vacation destination. I will forecast for you each morning of your trip so that you can know what to expect. If you have plans to engage in a certain activity- whether a day at the beach, a horseback ride, a bicycle tour...anything at all- I will forecast specifically for that activity and how the weather might impact your plans.

Furthermore, I will do severe weather forecasting for you. Say you are driving down the highway in Kansas and you see storms ahead. You can give me a call- no matter what time of day or night- and ask me if they are severe. Or, if you are enjoying your vacation (which you should be!), but storms (or a hurricane!) are coming, I will reach out to you and let you know.

I think this is a really neat and unique service and I believe it will help you make the most of your vacation. And it would really help relieve some of the costs I have. So please, consider signing up before June 10th to get the sale price. Even if your vacation is in August or later, book it now. Here is the link again: www.fl-weather.com/vacation

Moving on now, I am slowly working on a redesign of Grotonweather.com. I am really excited about how it looks so far. I did a survey a couple of weeks ago on displaying confidence and uncertainty in forecasts. The results were a tremendous help, so thank you to all who participated! I am now doing a smaller follow-up survey on a proposed forecast layout change. Please, if you could take a moment and fill it out, I would be very grateful. Here is the link: www.grotonweather.com/survey

If that was all not enough, I also started a new project on Facebook in an attempt to 1) combine my strong religious beliefs with my love for the weather 2) help those threatened by severe weather on a national level and 3) expand my forecasting beyond just the Finger Lakes. The result is the Storming Heaven Facebook group. If you believe in the power of prayer, go ahead an join up.

Back in late March, the Groton Public Library invited me to give an hour-long presentation. I presented on the Blizzard of 1993. Thank you to the library for the opportunity to speak! If you would like me to speak at your event or in your class (I've spoken at 3 schools since November), just send me an email or let me know on Facebook!

Thank you for reading this long post and for your continued support and interest in Grotonweather.com and the other projects I am working on. Stay tuned for more great features coming up...I am only getting started!!!

Down Time

Just a quick administrative note:

Each summer, I take a couple weeks off from intensive forecasting. This gives me a chance to do some other projects, recharge, and, usually, get some new ideas. As such, this summer I will not be updating the website from June 29 (Wednesday) through July 16th (or so).

Grotonweather.com will not be devoid of updated weather information though! Traditionally, I have many links and graphics from the National Weather Service and other trustworthy weather sources that have up-to-date information. My tropical weather page also automatically updates with information on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may form. I do this so that you can continue to be safe and informed, even while the site is not fully operating.

I thank you all for your continued support and understanding!

The Grotonweather.com Name...

I believe a bit of an administrative post is in order to follow up on the poll I had on my website over the weekend about the future name of Grotonweather.com.

First off, I would like to thank everyone who took time to take the survey. The information you gave me was a HUGE help in deciding my future course of action! I had a very good turnout on this survey, and there were some surprising results.

The overwhelming majority of you, it seems, really like the name 'grotonweather.com' and did NOT want to see it changed. This is not the results I expected and, in all honesty, I was not sure what to do for a bit. However, it is with great pleasure that I announce to you now that the grotonweather.com name will NOT be changing!

Now, the whole reason for wanting to change names in the first place was to, over the course of the next few years, grow this operation into something even larger. That is by all means still in the works, and I made a couple purchases just before making this post as the first steps in this plan. Details likely will not be coming out on this until the fall...or later...but I wanted to assure you all once more that there are no plans to get rid of the current site or current name.

Thank you all once again for your support and feedback! It is very much appreciated!

Spring 2011 Survey

Every year or so, I do a survey on Grotonweather.com. These surveys are extremely useful to me! They help me gauge how I am doing, what I can do better, what new features to add, and what old features should be removed along with other information. I never allow my surveys to go over 10 questions long so that I can keep it short and simple for you.

I would greatly appreciate it if you took a couple minutes and filled out the Spring 2011 Survey. Thank you very much for your time!

CLICK HERE TO TAKE THE SURVEY

2/24 PM Forecast Discussion

My apologies for having to post this here. The SUNY Oswego campus network has somehow decided to block all Grotonweather.com traffic from its network. I have managed to update most of the forecast as normal, but things such as the confidence forecast and uploading snow maps are impossible. Hopefully this will be fixed soon....in the mean time, we have a snow storm on our hands!

Forecast Discussion
A rapidly strengthening storm system over Arkansas will lift north and east, crossing across Pennsylvania tomorrow morning. The models are more or less in agreement with one another now, and they all keep the warm air and rain to the south. Despite this, I am still a tiny bit weary of the possibility of rain for Tompkins and southern Cortland County, as the rain/snow line will only be 30-50 miles to the south. I do have enough confidence to go with all snow now though. As I said this morning, since this storm is probably going to end up all snow, we are going to get it good. Below the discussion is the snow map I made for this storm. Most of the Grotonweather.com area is in the 7-14" range. Honestly though, I would not be at all surprised to see 16" or even 18" somewhere in that pink area. The snow will move in after midnight tonight and really become heavy for the morning hours tomorrow. By afternoon, the snow should begin to taper off. However, the winds will be on the increase, blowing all that fresh snow around. Significant blowing and drifting is likely tomorrow. I would likely be going into SNOW ALERT MODE if I had access to my files. Saturday and Sunday will each feature a shot at a few flurries, but nothing significant. Another storm will be in the works for Monday, but this one should remain all rain with the low tracking well to our west.


Storm total snowfall through Friday evening.

Are we done YET?

6:45 PM Update: A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for the very southern most portions of Tompkins and Cortland counties, but the storm is pretty much south of the county lines. Looking upstream, the more impressive thunderstorms should pass well to our west and east as the cold front begins to press through. As a result, I think we are pretty much done with severe weather here in the Grotonweather forecast area. There will likely be a shower or two...maybe even a light thunderstorm...over the next few hours...but the biggest hazard from here on out through tomorrow morning should be some areas of dense fog.

5PM Update: The storms over Ontario County have struggled to organize and are falling apart into just showers.

UPDATE 4:30PM: As I suspected (but a bit quicker I must admit), a healthy looking cell has broken off the lake breeze and is holding itself together nicely over Ontario County with some new development along its southern flank. If it keeps holding together, it should reach Cayuga Lake about 5:15-5:30 before heading into the Grotonweather forecast area between 5:30 and 7pm.

Original 4PM post: The Grotonweather forecast area has been hit hard twice today, with only the northern portions of Cortland County missing out on the active weather (but not by much, as southern Onondaga County has been hammered too!) Numerous severe weather reports have come out of the area, the most notable being trees and powerlines down in Lansing early this afternoon and a recorded wind gust of 55mph in Locke, 1.25" hail in Dryden and 1" hail in Cortland with the second round of storms.

So...are we done yet? For a little while at least. What has been happening is lake breeze fronts from Lake Erie and Ontario have been triggering storms between Rochester and Buffalo. These storms have been sitting and redeveloping over the same area for hours. As the individual cells move away from the lake breeze, they have been tracking southeast across the Finger Lakes, right into our neck of the woods. the last big storm that went through our area stabilized the atmosphere a good deal, and so as the cells break off of the lake breeze, they have started to quickly die out. I tend to doubt this will remain the case though. The sun is out and already working to destabilize the area once again. Eventually, I believe that another storm will have enough fuel to head down towards us once again, probably in the 1-3 hour time frame. After that, the lake breeze will start to die out. However, the cold front still has to come through and encounter a still unstable airmass across Western New York. more storms may fire up along that as it moves east...especially if it does so while the lake breeze is still adding extra lift to the atmosphere.

Bottom line: we may not be done yet...so stay tuned!

1PM Severe Weather Update

2PM Update: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR S. CAYUGA COUNTY UNTIL 2:45 pm. A severe storm over Ontario county will move into S. Cayuga county over the next 30-60 minutes. I expect the warning to be extended/overlapped as the storm moves into the area. If the storm remains severe (and there is not really any reason for it not to), Groton, Homer and Cortland will have to watch out for this storm between 3-4 pm. Interesting note: All of the Grotonweather forecast area but extreme northeast Tompkins and northern Cortland Counties have been under severe thunderstorm warnings at some point today already! And our watch goes for 6 more hours.

Original 1PM post: Lots going on this afternoon already. A severe storm tore through central Tompkins county last hour. It is looking a bit less organized as it moves into S. Cortland county. I was in Ithaca, on the 11th floor of Bradfield Hall, Cornell as the storm passed. There was rotation with it, and I got some awesome pictures I will post tonight. The storm produced 1" hail in Trumansburg and took out "many" trees and powerlines in Lansing. No other reports yet (as of 1PM).

While all this was going on, the SPC moved us into a moderate risk. This is primarily for the threat of damaging winds. Now, we've already experienced severe weather...but is more on the way? Our watch goes until 8pm, afterall. The answer is yes, our threat still continues. There are more showers and storms forming over western New York back into Canada. The cold front itself stretches from Ontario back into Ohio and Indiana. The air just upstream is very unstable, and the storms we've already had shouldn't have much of an effect on our instability for the middle or latter part of the afternoon.

If you haven't become a fan of Grotonweather on facebook or a follower on Twitter, you will want to do so now! I've been posting up a storm (pun intended) on those two sites all morning with the latest updates and will continue to do so through the day. Also, the Grotonweather Toolbar is a great way to keep your eye on the latest forecast. Download it here. And, as always, the main site/blog will be updated throughout the day to keep you safe!

That's all for now. Keep checking back!

The GrotonWeather Toolbar!

http://grotonweather.OurToolbar.com/

That is the hottest link around right now. Click it, and you can download the GROTONWEATHER TOOLBAR...the latest way to get your forecast quick and easy! Downloading this toolbar will allow you to have some great features displayed at the top of your browser window. Here is an explanation of each of the features in order, from right to left...

ToolbarLogo: Clicking on this will take you to the Grotonweather homepage. Additionally, there is a little white arrow just to the right of the logo. Clicking on this will drop down a menu with additional links. Of these, the most important is probably the "refresh toolbar" link at the top, especially if you leave your browser open for long periods of time. The forecast automatically updates around 6PM, so if you do not see a forecast for tonight by 6PM, click the refresh toolbar link!

Search Box: The search box is a staple on most toolbars, and allows you to easily search from the toolbar. The site I am using to create this toolbar does not allow for many options regarding the customization of this. As such, every time you highlight text, it automatically gets put into the search box. Click the arrow, and then you search for it! The sliding bar on the far right part of the image allows you to shrink and expand the search box. I suggest shrinking it down as far as possible, to allow room for the other content!

Forecast: Your forecast is shown here. The forecast automatically changes to the night forecast at 6PM. If it is after 6PM and you do not see the night forecast, hit the refresh toolbar link, as explained in the "toolbar logo" section. At the far right side of this, in brackets and color, is the "hazard of the day". Each day, the primary mode of hazardous weather you need to worry about will be displayed here. The colors correspond to the risk. For example, a red risk will be much more serious than a green or yellow one. If you move your mouse over the hazard, the forecast will disappear to show...

Hazard Text: This is just a simple message that takes the place of the forecast to inform you that there may be other hazards besides the one listed. Following that message is a link to the Grotonweather homepage to see what other hazards may be in store. Moving your mouse over the blue "return to forecast" text will display the forecast once again.

Twitter Feed: Even if you are not a fan of twitter, you can still get updates from Grotonweather's twitter channel here! Click the bird to display the latest posts in a drop-down window below the bird.

[pic not available yet] Doppler Radar: Clicking this box (its red with a sun icon in it) will bring up a map of the United States. Click New York (or any state) and the radar loop for that state will pop up.

Live Time & Temperature: The time and temperature are displayed live here. Clicking on the image will take you to the live stats from Groton. If the time appears out of date, then you may need to refresh your toolbar!

Scrolling Alerts: A Grotonweather original feature, any watches, warnings or advisories will be displayed here. As with the scrolling text on the main site, this is difficult to keep updated manually and may occasionally be out of date or miss displaying all alerts. This is something that will hopefully be automatically updating in the near future!

I hope you enjoy this toolbar. Make sure to suggest it, and grotonweather.com, to your friends and family! Don't forget to join us on Facebook and Twitter too!!