Late-May News and Updates

Hello Grotonweather Fans! I have been working very hard over the past couple of months on new and exciting things. I thought I would type up a blog to explain and promote some of these things.

First off is Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com), my new weather forecasting and consulting business. It is my hope that Finger Lakes Weather will become my career, helping local businesses, organizations, and the public with private and customizable weather forecasts. Finger Lakes Weather offers a variety of "Forecast Packages" tailored specifically towards various groups. For the spring, I offered a frost forecast package and was able to do some free-trial forecasting for Fox Run Vineyards and Three Brothers Vineyards, both on Seneca Lake. I have plans for a forecast package for construction workers. Right now, I am offering a special on vacation forecasting...but more on that later. Check out Finger Lakes Weather (the website again is www.fl-weather.com) and join the Finger Lakes Facebook page.

Next up is the Grotonweather Radar Page (www.grotonweather.com/radar). I recently got some top-notch radar software that is used by many meteorologists, especially storm chasers and others interested in thunderstorms. This software allows me to upload the radar to the website, so that is what I have done. Furthermore, I can display things such as areas of possible hail, rotation in thunderstorms, winds, and watches and warnings. I can also zoom right in on a storm down to street-level. So far, this has been a HUGE success with hundred of views despite an overall quiet thunderstorm season thusfar.

A severe thunderstorm approaches Ithaca.

Success does not come without price, however. And in this case, the price is measured in bandwidth. For those not familiar, bandwidth is basically the amount of data transferred to and from a website. The radar page uploads large image files every few minutes and quickly ate up my monthly bandwidth limit. That in turn forced me to purchase a more expensive hosting plan. My costs for running Grotonweather.com, not including time spent, is now approaching $200 a year.

Since 2006, when I started this operation, I have not received any revenue from my website. I am dedicated to keeping the website free. As costs continue to rise, something has to be done to offset some of these costs. Rather than charge money for Grotonweather and rather than flat out asking for donations, I decided a fund-raiser would be the best idea.

This is where the vacation forecasting package from Finger Lakes Weather (www.fl-weather.com/vacation) comes back into play. As a fund-raiser, I am offering this service at a reduced price of just $10 per day or $50 per week. What does that entail? I will forecast for your travels to and from your vacation destination. I will forecast for you each morning of your trip so that you can know what to expect. If you have plans to engage in a certain activity- whether a day at the beach, a horseback ride, a bicycle tour...anything at all- I will forecast specifically for that activity and how the weather might impact your plans.

Furthermore, I will do severe weather forecasting for you. Say you are driving down the highway in Kansas and you see storms ahead. You can give me a call- no matter what time of day or night- and ask me if they are severe. Or, if you are enjoying your vacation (which you should be!), but storms (or a hurricane!) are coming, I will reach out to you and let you know.

I think this is a really neat and unique service and I believe it will help you make the most of your vacation. And it would really help relieve some of the costs I have. So please, consider signing up before June 10th to get the sale price. Even if your vacation is in August or later, book it now. Here is the link again: www.fl-weather.com/vacation

Moving on now, I am slowly working on a redesign of Grotonweather.com. I am really excited about how it looks so far. I did a survey a couple of weeks ago on displaying confidence and uncertainty in forecasts. The results were a tremendous help, so thank you to all who participated! I am now doing a smaller follow-up survey on a proposed forecast layout change. Please, if you could take a moment and fill it out, I would be very grateful. Here is the link: www.grotonweather.com/survey

If that was all not enough, I also started a new project on Facebook in an attempt to 1) combine my strong religious beliefs with my love for the weather 2) help those threatened by severe weather on a national level and 3) expand my forecasting beyond just the Finger Lakes. The result is the Storming Heaven Facebook group. If you believe in the power of prayer, go ahead an join up.

Back in late March, the Groton Public Library invited me to give an hour-long presentation. I presented on the Blizzard of 1993. Thank you to the library for the opportunity to speak! If you would like me to speak at your event or in your class (I've spoken at 3 schools since November), just send me an email or let me know on Facebook!

Thank you for reading this long post and for your continued support and interest in Grotonweather.com and the other projects I am working on. Stay tuned for more great features coming up...I am only getting started!!!

Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

 7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

Was Irene Really a Bust?

In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"

If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.

The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?

If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.

As of this writing, 2.5 million homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. Homes have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for over 150 years. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?

And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.

The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.

What does an "Alert Mode" mean?

Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into "Alert Mode" for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.

The Alert Mode is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode threatens lives and property. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to highlight the potential dangers.

Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:

First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be above and beyond the "average" bad weather situation.

Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into Standby to raise awareness of the potential for devastating weather.

When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on Facebook and/or Twitter for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our Facebook and Twitter pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps.

The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help prevent that from ever becoming a reality. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "keep checking back for updates!"

East Coast Beware

This post is what is called "hype." That means its something that needs to be watched, but there is no promise it will or won't happen because its just too early.

However, the models have been handling this one consistently and has started to get Accuweather.com into an uproar...and in my experience, when Accuweather starts acting like they are now, there is a decent chance it will happen. What we are looking at is right now just a blob of clouds off the east coast of Florida. As the high pressure that has been over us for the past week or so slides off to the east, it will act as a big plug, preventing this blob from going anywhere. So, it will sit over warm waters and could spin up into a hurricane by later this week. It is too early to tell how strong, but a category 2 or 3 is possible. Its also impossible to tell where it will go. So, everywhere on the east coast, but especially the Carolinas and Virginia, needs to keep an eye on this one.

As for how it could impact us here in Central New York...we will have to wait and see. Keep checking back in the coming days for more on this potential storm!

Dean Explodes

HURRICANE DEAN HAS EXPLODED AND IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH. HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE 11PM ADVISORY:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Here is the latest radar from San Juan....it shows a very well defined eye, indicating a strong hurricane!

Major Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean became a Major Hurricane today (See post titled "TD-4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale" 8/13) as it achieved category 3 status. It has winds of 125mph, which means its already half way to category 4 status. Dean is expected to continue to strengthen. Right now, Dean is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico.

Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.


Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.

This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.

Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!

Where will Dean go?

Dean has become the first hurricane of the season. As of 7AM today, it has peak winds of 80mph and is expected to continue strengthening. In fact, according to the National Hurricane Center, by this time Sunday, Dean has a 40% of being a major hurricane, with winds any where over 111mph. So, where is this potential monster headed? And how will Puerto Rico, where a couple of Groton Residents will be this weekend, fare?

As you can see below, the projected track takes Dean through the Caribbean Sea and towards the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.



However, keep in mind that the projected path is of the center of the storm, where as the storm is much bigger. Taking a look at the chances for Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds will give a better idea of who will be effected by this storm:



The hurricane force winds map isn't showing much since these maps were issued before Dean became a hurricane. In general, Puerto Rico is going to have a period of heavy rain and high winds. However, it shouldn't last too long, and it looks like it might come at night, so our fellow Grotonites shouldn't have their vacation ruined!

TD 4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale

The system that was the subject of the last blog post has taken its first step to becoming a major player in the weather during the next 7-14 days. The system has become a tropical depression, the weakest classified tropical system. Winds are currently sustained at 35 mph. As you can see below, the system is still a very long ways from land. Based on historical data of storms that form in that area, the projected path looks fairly consistent. However, those projections can change in a hurry, so don't put too much stock in them until the system evolves more.


So of course, the next questions are: How strong will this become and where will it head? Neither of those questions can be answered for sure yet; its still a very young system, being upgraded just today. However, I do think there is a good bet it will become a hurricane, possibly a "major" one. Some of the "experts" from Accuweather.com have been saying Florida looks like a prime target. But in reality, its impossible to tell with any degree of certainty.

Wait a second...a "major" hurricane? What does that mean? Since hurricane season is heating up, its a good time to review the "Saffir-Simpson Scale," which is used to measure hurricanes based on wind speeds. There are 5 categories of hurricanes, 1 being the weakest, 5 the most powerful and rarest. Anything with a category 3 or higher is considered a "major" hurricane. Here is the complete scale, just focusing on categories and wind speeds:

• Category 1: Winds between 74-95 mph
• Category 2: Winds between 96-100 mph
• Category 3*: Winds between 111-130 mph
• Category 4*: Winds between 131-155
  
• Category 5*: Winds over 156 mph

*Denotes a major hurricane

Now, these winds are sustained winds. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average. Individual gusts within the hurricane can far exceed the sustained wind speeds.

Keep checking back for updates on TD-4, which will like be named either "Dean" or "Erin" depending on another area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Vigorous Tropical Wave Needs Watching

For days now, models have been saying a tropical wave would develop into a hurricane and churn across the Atlantic. Friday, the system in question came off the coast of Africa as a vigorous tropical wave. This wave has stayed healthy in its first 36 hours over water and could become a tropical depression as soon as this afternoon or evening. Conditions look favorable and the models still agree that this should become a hurricane. The thing the models haven't been agreeing on is where this will go, ranging from Mexico to Maine. Most times with storms that form where this one is, it is somewhere between Florida and Virginia that gets hit. Of course, it is way way way too soon to tell where it will go. The storm is still 10-14 days away from the United States coast. I will be posting updates through the week, so stay tuned!

Seems like summer!

A busy blog post for sure, all of it having to do with things more typical of the summer than early May! From fires to heat, severe storms to hurricanes, its being talked about:

Fires:
If you have noticed, about a week or so ago I added a "Fire Threat" section to the thunderstorm forecast (for lack of a better place for it). I have been using this as a guide to how likely accidental brush fires are to occur based on a combination of recent rainfall, winds, humidity, and temperature. Lately, all things have been aligned for a "moderate" to "high" risk of fires. This threat became reality yesterday in Syracuse, when sparks from a welder's torch started a small brush fire. When the threat is high, extra caution must be used. One of the bigger risks is actually from people throwing cigarette butts without thinking. As is evident by yesterday's brush fire in Syracuse, when the threat is elevated, it doesn't take much to get a fire going!

Heat:
After hitting 86 yesterday, I thought about maybe putting "near 90" for today's forecast, but thought I might be jumping the gun a bit too much. Since 2003 (when I started recording weather data), it has hit 90 in May only twice. Both times were last year, on the 30th and 31st. However, that record has now been broken. Just after 3PM, I got to 90 degrees at my house, topping out at 90.3! You can see my weather software above (click for a larger image). The high temperature is displayed about half way down on the left panel!


Severe Storm Threat:
There is a bit of a threat for severe storms Thursday afternoon as a disturbance aloft moves through. While widespread severe weather isn't anticipated....nor did it occur today over the Midwest....I do think a few of tomorrow's storms may become severe, with hail and gusty winds being the threat. I would anticipate between 2 and 10 severe weather reports, mostly wind, stretching from Western New York, into Central New York and Northern Pennsylvania and over to about Albany. East of that, there may be some additional severe weather.

Subtropical Storm Andrea:
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season got an early start today...or did it? The season officially starts June 1st. Today, a low pressure system was classified "subtropical" and was given the name "Andrea." First off, a subtropical low is basically a hybrid: its got some tropical characteristics, and some non-tropical characteristics. (If you want more details, that would make a great "Ask Drew" question for that section of my website (which isn't built yet...)). In years past, these systems did not receive names. However, during the past few years, they have been given names. So, in a way, the Hurricane Season is off to a running start....but in ways, nothing has yet happened.