2PM Update

The Severe Weather Expert at Accuweather.com (Henry Margusity) has updated his analysis of the threat for today. He generally reflects what the Storm Prediction Center implied and my main concern going through today.

The clouds and rain have helped stabilize the atmosphere. However, there is a wave of energy lifting northward from West Virginia. It is this enhanced energy, combined with all the moisture and strong winds in the atmosphere, that will get things going in a few hours. Henry said to expect about a dozen storm reports total...I still think there might be a bit more, maybe 15-20 across the whole northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Expect the next update later this afternoon as storms begin to form!

12:30PM Update

The storm prediction center has lessened the chance of damaging wind in their 12:30PM outlook. While the coverage are of the tornado threat has shrunk, it remains the same across all of Central New York and Pennsylvania. There is still a lot of rain out there from last nights weather and it is tough to say how much this will prevent other storms from developing. Even with the rain, there still should be at least some severe thunderstorms developing later on.

Next update: 2 or 3PM or sooner

Friday Morning Thoughts

Clouds and rain showers that are left over from yesterday's storms are keeping us from getting the sun out this morning. This will probably prevent a massive, widespread severe weather outbreak from occurring. However, I still think there is a good chance of some really nasty weather late this afternoon. Normally, a great deal of instability is needed to get lots of severe weather going. One of the easiest ways to get this is to get the sun out. However, this storm's power is in the winds aloft blowing strongly one way and the winds lower in the atmosphere blowing strong in a different direction. This is called "shear" and is important for tornadoes and damaging winds.

Now, lets take a look at yesterday's latest storm report map:


I want to point out the smattering of red (tornadoes) in Michigan. I checked back to see what their weather conditions were like at this time yesterday. Surprisingly, I found very similar conditions to what we have now: Temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's, dew points in the mid to upper 60's...and most importantly, clouds. Temperatures didn't rise much above the low to mid 70's as well....yet they still got hammered.

Now...we are not Michigan and there are many other factors that will prevent us from having the extent of severe weather that they had. However, the potential is most certainly there for lots of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. Check back for another update probably around 12:30-1PM.