Morning Storm Update

It is now quarter after 10am, and everything is going pretty much as expected. The snow started here in Groton about an hour ago, and already visibilities are down to roughly a mile as the snow has started to pick up in intensity. Looking at the official 10AM observations, Ithaca is reporting light snow, with moderate snow in Rochester, Penn Yan, and Dansville, and heavy snow falling in Buffalo. Over the next hour, expect the snow to continue to increase in intensity to the rate of an inch or so an hour. The snow will continue at least at that intensity, likely reaching 2" per hour at times, through the afternoon. Heavy and moderate snow is being reported back through Michigan. There is actually heavy snow in Wisconsin as well, but I think Lake Michigan is enhancing that snow since the winds are out of the northeast. Here is a look at the radar (from 9:30...but that is recent enough to get the point across). You can see any mixed precipitation is well south, and the snow extends back into the areas I just described. All this is moving more or less east-southeast.



Bottom line is the snow is going to come down hard very soon and continue at rates of 1-2" per hour until at least sundown. There may even be some thunder and lightning in the snow during the early and mid afternoon. Please leave a comment here, or log onto the chat (assuming it is open) and report any thunder! The chat room will likely be open most of the day today as well. I will continue to update this blog hourly, probably just with snow totals, but also any new information that comes in.

Pre-frontal Storms

The first storms of the day have been ongoing across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York. There have been occasional warnings with these storms, so they have the potential to be severe. However, this isn't the main event today. The cold front still sits way back to the west over Southern Ontario, Western Ohio and Eastern Indiana. On the radar image below, you can see the line of storms along the front begining to form just east of Michigan.



The Storm Prediction Center also updated their outlooks and maps (which I don't have graphics for at this time...). We are still in the moderate risk zone, but the core of it was shifted to the east. All this means to me is the SPC is thinking the line will for a little further east. While I agree with extending the zone further east into Vermont and New England, I am not so sure I agree with cutting the Western Finger Lakes out. We will see.

9:50AM Update: The Storm Prediction Center is now saying they will issue a watch shortly for our area. Stay tunde for updates as the watch is issued!

Round Two Begins!

The clusters of thunderstorms that moved through earlier today have shifted well off to the south and east. While these storms stabilized the atmosphere for a while, in the long run, they only made things worse. Over an inch of rain fell in Groton earlier. Now, with the sun back out, that inch of rain is returning to the atmosphere. Dewpoints have shot up into the mid to upper 70's, making it feel over 90 despite temperatures being in the low to mid 80's. All this moisture is fueling another round of thunderstorms which is just now starting to explode.

Right now, most of these storms are in the southern counties of New York, but there is a large cell over Lake Ontario as well. Further rapid development of storms is certainly possible over the next few hours. There is currently (4:30) a small cell near Trumansburg that will have to be watched for rapid development in the next hour or so. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect as well.

Looking into this evening and overnight, there is a very strong line of severe thunderstorms over Michigan right now. These storms have a severe thunderstorm watch for Michigan, and a torando watch issued by the Canadian Weather Service for Southern Ontario. It is hard to say if this line will hold together long enough to effect us, but it is something I will be watching through the evening.

On this radar image (from weathertap.com) you can see the numerous cells firing up in New York, along with the line of storms in Michigan marching eastward.

Friday Morning Thoughts

Clouds and rain showers that are left over from yesterday's storms are keeping us from getting the sun out this morning. This will probably prevent a massive, widespread severe weather outbreak from occurring. However, I still think there is a good chance of some really nasty weather late this afternoon. Normally, a great deal of instability is needed to get lots of severe weather going. One of the easiest ways to get this is to get the sun out. However, this storm's power is in the winds aloft blowing strongly one way and the winds lower in the atmosphere blowing strong in a different direction. This is called "shear" and is important for tornadoes and damaging winds.

Now, lets take a look at yesterday's latest storm report map:


I want to point out the smattering of red (tornadoes) in Michigan. I checked back to see what their weather conditions were like at this time yesterday. Surprisingly, I found very similar conditions to what we have now: Temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's, dew points in the mid to upper 60's...and most importantly, clouds. Temperatures didn't rise much above the low to mid 70's as well....yet they still got hammered.

Now...we are not Michigan and there are many other factors that will prevent us from having the extent of severe weather that they had. However, the potential is most certainly there for lots of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. Check back for another update probably around 12:30-1PM.