A potentially significant severe weather outbreak across much of the northeast, including our area is beginning. However, Grotonweather.com will NOT be going into alert mode for this event. As I mentioned in the Alert Mode blog, I take the issuing of Alert Mode very seriously. I only issue them when it seems like widespread, life threatening weather is likely.
Today's event is very close to that criteria, and I cannot say for sure that I will not issue Alert Mode status later in the day. At this point though, I do not think the storms will organize quite fast enough to bring the high risks necessary for an Alert Mode. If this site was for Chenango, Monroe and Otsego counties, I very likely would be going into Alert Mode. The worst of this event, in terms of spatial coverage and intensity, will likely be just to our east.
That being said, storms are already starting to develop in our area and just to the west. These storms will not take long to become severe, and our threats for wind damage and hail remain at a 'MODERATE' level. Winds up to 80mph and two inch hail are not totally out of the question. Stay tuned for updates!
Showing posts with label derecho. Show all posts
Showing posts with label derecho. Show all posts
Thursday, June 09, 2011
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
Monday's Historic Thunderstorms
Story originally published on Syracuse.com by Drew Montreuil.
I wanted to take a couple moments and point out some pretty amazing things that happened Monday across the eastern half of the nation. A huge severe weather outbreak blasted across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and into the southeast. Severe weather was reported from Texas to Florida, northward into Pennsylvania. Even here in Central New York, we had a few strong thunderstorms. Three-quarter inch hail was reported Monday morning near Ithaca and in Norwich. Hail must measure one inch in diameter before it is considered "severe".
While the National Weather Service continues to do surveys of the damage, the number of reports will continue to increase. But here are some numbers that are just mind blowing:
As of 10AM Wednesday, there were 1377 total reports of wind damage, 1"+ hail or tornadoes from Monday. Since 2000, there has not been a single day with this many severe weather reports. Of the nearly 1400 reports, 1245 were damaging wind reports. The squall line responsible for this outbreak did not stop producing severe weather because it died; it simply moved off shore over the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, there were a number of fatalities associated with these storms as tornadoes destroyed homes and trees were downed onto houses. The image above, from the Storm Prediction Center, shows the severe weather reports from Monday's historic outbreak. Blue dots represent wind damage, while red dots are tornado reports and green dots are hail an inch in diameter or greater. Click the image for a larger view.
More spring-like weather will be on the way for the East, including Central New York. Another powerful storm system will form over the Great Plains this weekend and head up into Canada. A cold front will blast across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, with more severe weather possible. Currently the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting areas from Minnesota and Wisconsin south to Texas and Louisiana and eastward to Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee as the highest potential for severe weather. As we get closer to the weekend though, I would not be surprised to see that threat shifted further to the east. Whether or not we get into the thunderstorms once more is still a bit questionable, but at the very least, our temperatures will shoot into the 60s, maybe even near 70 Sunday and Monday.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
TORNADO WATCH ISSUED
Tompkins County, along with all of Central and Eastern New York is now under a TORNADO WATCH until 6PM tonight!
A little known fact about watches is that they each have probablities of certain severe weather events occuring. For this watch, there is over a 95% chance of 10 or more wind damage reports, as well as over a 95% chance of 10 or more hail reports and a 40% chance of 2 or more tornado reports. That means the main threat is still damaging winds, but tornadoes are becoming an increasing threat.
An update on that line of storms: The northern portion appears to be the stronger part, with numerous warnings now in effect. Stay tuned for more updates on these storms.
Also, the National Weather Service confirmed my belief about multiple lines of storms today when they issued this statement at 10:05AM:
A little known fact about watches is that they each have probablities of certain severe weather events occuring. For this watch, there is over a 95% chance of 10 or more wind damage reports, as well as over a 95% chance of 10 or more hail reports and a 40% chance of 2 or more tornado reports. That means the main threat is still damaging winds, but tornadoes are becoming an increasing threat.
An update on that line of storms: The northern portion appears to be the stronger part, with numerous warnings now in effect. Stay tuned for more updates on these storms.
Also, the National Weather Service confirmed my belief about multiple lines of storms today when they issued this statement at 10:05AM:
... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today...
An initial line of thunderstorms will cross The Finger lakes
region... the twin tiers... the Mohawk Valley... and the southern Tug
Hill region this morning... generally between 930 am and 12 noon.
This includes Elmira... Corning... Syracuse... Utica... Binghamton...
and Montrose. Localized strong damaging winds and hail are
possible late this morning.
This afternoon... another round of thunderstorms is anticipated.
Additional lines of storms are expected to cross the area... generally
between 2 and 6 PM. Once again... strong winds and hail are the
primary threats.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... or local media outlets... for the
latest updates. Watches and/or warnings may well be issued later
today.
MOD. RISK!
A very serious situation is unfolding today for our area, with the Storm Prediction Center placing us under a MODERATE RISK zone. To put this in perspective as to how rare this type of severe weather outlook is for our area, I can only remember 1 other time during the lifetime of grotonweather.com that we have been under a moderate risk, and NEVER have we been under one to start the day! I do have to say, however, that I was thinking last night that this would happen. Here are the areas under the moderate risk (pink in the top image) because of the wind threat (red in the bottom image).
As I have been indicating the past 24 hours, everything is coming together for a major severe weather outbreak. Hot, humid air is and has been in place. This will interact with a cold front and trough of low pressure that will progress eastward through the day. The final piece to the puzzle will be the strong jet stream winds. The thunderstorms that explode later this morning across Western and Central New York will be able to tap into these winds. Winds in some of the storms today could exceed 70, even 80 or 90 mph. The tornado threat is a tad higher than I thought last night as well. I will be updating throughout the day, so make sure to stay tuned here for the most up-to-date, in depth forecasts and outlooks you will find on the web for this area!
(Your normal forecast will be coming by 8AM. To find the forecast, hover over the "Grotonweather" tab in the menu above, then click the "Homepage" link!)
As I have been indicating the past 24 hours, everything is coming together for a major severe weather outbreak. Hot, humid air is and has been in place. This will interact with a cold front and trough of low pressure that will progress eastward through the day. The final piece to the puzzle will be the strong jet stream winds. The thunderstorms that explode later this morning across Western and Central New York will be able to tap into these winds. Winds in some of the storms today could exceed 70, even 80 or 90 mph. The tornado threat is a tad higher than I thought last night as well. I will be updating throughout the day, so make sure to stay tuned here for the most up-to-date, in depth forecasts and outlooks you will find on the web for this area!
(Your normal forecast will be coming by 8AM. To find the forecast, hover over the "Grotonweather" tab in the menu above, then click the "Homepage" link!)
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Round Two Begins!
The clusters of thunderstorms that moved through earlier today have shifted well off to the south and east. While these storms stabilized the atmosphere for a while, in the long run, they only made things worse. Over an inch of rain fell in Groton earlier. Now, with the sun back out, that inch of rain is returning to the atmosphere. Dewpoints have shot up into the mid to upper 70's, making it feel over 90 despite temperatures being in the low to mid 80's. All this moisture is fueling another round of thunderstorms which is just now starting to explode.
Right now, most of these storms are in the southern counties of New York, but there is a large cell over Lake Ontario as well. Further rapid development of storms is certainly possible over the next few hours. There is currently (4:30) a small cell near Trumansburg that will have to be watched for rapid development in the next hour or so. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect as well.
Looking into this evening and overnight, there is a very strong line of severe thunderstorms over Michigan right now. These storms have a severe thunderstorm watch for Michigan, and a torando watch issued by the Canadian Weather Service for Southern Ontario. It is hard to say if this line will hold together long enough to effect us, but it is something I will be watching through the evening.
On this radar image (from weathertap.com) you can see the numerous cells firing up in New York, along with the line of storms in Michigan marching eastward.
Right now, most of these storms are in the southern counties of New York, but there is a large cell over Lake Ontario as well. Further rapid development of storms is certainly possible over the next few hours. There is currently (4:30) a small cell near Trumansburg that will have to be watched for rapid development in the next hour or so. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect as well.
Looking into this evening and overnight, there is a very strong line of severe thunderstorms over Michigan right now. These storms have a severe thunderstorm watch for Michigan, and a torando watch issued by the Canadian Weather Service for Southern Ontario. It is hard to say if this line will hold together long enough to effect us, but it is something I will be watching through the evening.
On this radar image (from weathertap.com) you can see the numerous cells firing up in New York, along with the line of storms in Michigan marching eastward.
Friday, June 08, 2007
Severe Update: 4:30PM
Here is the latest on the severe situation...there is good news, and there is bad news.
The good news is, storms aren't forming ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that stretches from Ontario down into the Deep South. This line is a it broken in Ohio, and it is there that there are a few super cell thunderstorms, which have produced funnel clouds, 4.25" hail, lots of wind damage and, probably a tornado or two. However, it looks like our chances for tornadic storms are slightly less than earlier.
Now the bad news. According to Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, the reason storms are not firing ahead of the main line is because the main line is so strong. Basically, the line is using up the energy in the atmosphere to fuel its self. According to the software I am using to track these storms, the should begin to enter the area sometime after 8. With the intensity of this line, I am not sure it will weaken as it loses its day time heating. It may, so that is something to watch as the evening progresses.
Overall, our chances for storms to fire ahead of this line are decreased, but not gone. An isolated tornado or two is still possible in the general area. Later tonight, expect a line of storms to come through with strong, damaging winds, especially for areas west of us.
The good news is, storms aren't forming ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that stretches from Ontario down into the Deep South. This line is a it broken in Ohio, and it is there that there are a few super cell thunderstorms, which have produced funnel clouds, 4.25" hail, lots of wind damage and, probably a tornado or two. However, it looks like our chances for tornadic storms are slightly less than earlier.
Now the bad news. According to Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, the reason storms are not firing ahead of the main line is because the main line is so strong. Basically, the line is using up the energy in the atmosphere to fuel its self. According to the software I am using to track these storms, the should begin to enter the area sometime after 8. With the intensity of this line, I am not sure it will weaken as it loses its day time heating. It may, so that is something to watch as the evening progresses.
Overall, our chances for storms to fire ahead of this line are decreased, but not gone. An isolated tornado or two is still possible in the general area. Later tonight, expect a line of storms to come through with strong, damaging winds, especially for areas west of us.
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