Long Range Outlook: Late July Heat Wave

Besides a day here and there this month, we have escaped the real brutal heat that can roast our area in July. However, there are indications for quite a large and long heat wave coming towards the end of the month. There isn't much doubt that it will happen as opposed to when. Take a look:

As with almost all our hot periods, this heat will start well to our west, baking the Rockies and Planes. The heat can only expand so far north, and once it reaches that threshold, it heads east.

The article that accompanies the diagram to the left from accuweather.com says this "could become the heat wave of the summer for the Midwest and East."

Taking a look at their 15-day forecast, it looks like starting next week, we could be in for a lengthy period of near to above 90 degree heat. More on this as it evolves!

Severe Storms, New Features coming

Another round of severe thunderstorms will be coming to the area later, probably during the late afternoon and early evening hours. There is also some non-weather news, as I have once again been working on improving grotonweather.com. Read on for more!

Another powerful cold front will come through the region later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures ahead of this front will be in the low 90's and humid, providing fuel for the storms. It looks like multiple lines of storms will form during the day. While one of these lines is already forming well to our west along the cold front, it is any one's guess where the other ones will form. If they get going to our west, our chances for severe weather are much higher. If the lines form to our east, I don't think the line along the cold front will retain its severe levels by the time it reaches here, probably after the sun sets. The main severe threat will be wind and hail, though the conditions appear favorable for a brief tornado or two, especially to areas east of I-81. Even though the largest severe threats appear to be west and east of Groton, the situation should be watched and I will updating as needed throughout the day.

School is out! Congratulations to my fellow classmates as we graduate Saturday (which should be an absolutely perfect weather day!) Since school is out, I have time on my hands. I have been using some of this time to once again upgrade and improve grotonweather.com! I have been conducting a survey (which I would still love for you to take by clicking here) and it quickly became evident that a more regional forecast would be helpful. So, I have been working on how best to include a broader look at the weather. I have it pretty much figured out and just have a few kinks left to work out. While its not ready to be viewed and updated, I did take a screenshot of what it looks like so far. Take a look (click for larger view):

Seems like summer!

A busy blog post for sure, all of it having to do with things more typical of the summer than early May! From fires to heat, severe storms to hurricanes, its being talked about:

Fires:
If you have noticed, about a week or so ago I added a "Fire Threat" section to the thunderstorm forecast (for lack of a better place for it). I have been using this as a guide to how likely accidental brush fires are to occur based on a combination of recent rainfall, winds, humidity, and temperature. Lately, all things have been aligned for a "moderate" to "high" risk of fires. This threat became reality yesterday in Syracuse, when sparks from a welder's torch started a small brush fire. When the threat is high, extra caution must be used. One of the bigger risks is actually from people throwing cigarette butts without thinking. As is evident by yesterday's brush fire in Syracuse, when the threat is elevated, it doesn't take much to get a fire going!

Heat:
After hitting 86 yesterday, I thought about maybe putting "near 90" for today's forecast, but thought I might be jumping the gun a bit too much. Since 2003 (when I started recording weather data), it has hit 90 in May only twice. Both times were last year, on the 30th and 31st. However, that record has now been broken. Just after 3PM, I got to 90 degrees at my house, topping out at 90.3! You can see my weather software above (click for a larger image). The high temperature is displayed about half way down on the left panel!


Severe Storm Threat:
There is a bit of a threat for severe storms Thursday afternoon as a disturbance aloft moves through. While widespread severe weather isn't anticipated....nor did it occur today over the Midwest....I do think a few of tomorrow's storms may become severe, with hail and gusty winds being the threat. I would anticipate between 2 and 10 severe weather reports, mostly wind, stretching from Western New York, into Central New York and Northern Pennsylvania and over to about Albany. East of that, there may be some additional severe weather.

Subtropical Storm Andrea:
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season got an early start today...or did it? The season officially starts June 1st. Today, a low pressure system was classified "subtropical" and was given the name "Andrea." First off, a subtropical low is basically a hybrid: its got some tropical characteristics, and some non-tropical characteristics. (If you want more details, that would make a great "Ask Drew" question for that section of my website (which isn't built yet...)). In years past, these systems did not receive names. However, during the past few years, they have been given names. So, in a way, the Hurricane Season is off to a running start....but in ways, nothing has yet happened.