East Coast Beware

This post is what is called "hype." That means its something that needs to be watched, but there is no promise it will or won't happen because its just too early.

However, the models have been handling this one consistently and has started to get Accuweather.com into an uproar...and in my experience, when Accuweather starts acting like they are now, there is a decent chance it will happen. What we are looking at is right now just a blob of clouds off the east coast of Florida. As the high pressure that has been over us for the past week or so slides off to the east, it will act as a big plug, preventing this blob from going anywhere. So, it will sit over warm waters and could spin up into a hurricane by later this week. It is too early to tell how strong, but a category 2 or 3 is possible. Its also impossible to tell where it will go. So, everywhere on the east coast, but especially the Carolinas and Virginia, needs to keep an eye on this one.

As for how it could impact us here in Central New York...we will have to wait and see. Keep checking back in the coming days for more on this potential storm!

Dean Explodes

HURRICANE DEAN HAS EXPLODED AND IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH. HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE 11PM ADVISORY:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Here is the latest radar from San Juan....it shows a very well defined eye, indicating a strong hurricane!

Vigorous Tropical Wave Needs Watching

For days now, models have been saying a tropical wave would develop into a hurricane and churn across the Atlantic. Friday, the system in question came off the coast of Africa as a vigorous tropical wave. This wave has stayed healthy in its first 36 hours over water and could become a tropical depression as soon as this afternoon or evening. Conditions look favorable and the models still agree that this should become a hurricane. The thing the models haven't been agreeing on is where this will go, ranging from Mexico to Maine. Most times with storms that form where this one is, it is somewhere between Florida and Virginia that gets hit. Of course, it is way way way too soon to tell where it will go. The storm is still 10-14 days away from the United States coast. I will be posting updates through the week, so stay tuned!