This post is what is called "hype." That means its something that needs to be watched, but there is no promise it will or won't happen because its just too early.
However, the models have been handling this one consistently and has started to get Accuweather.com into an uproar...and in my experience, when Accuweather starts acting like they are now, there is a decent chance it will happen. What we are looking at is right now just a blob of clouds off the east coast of Florida. As the high pressure that has been over us for the past week or so slides off to the east, it will act as a big plug, preventing this blob from going anywhere. So, it will sit over warm waters and could spin up into a hurricane by later this week. It is too early to tell how strong, but a category 2 or 3 is possible. Its also impossible to tell where it will go. So, everywhere on the east coast, but especially the Carolinas and Virginia, needs to keep an eye on this one.
As for how it could impact us here in Central New York...we will have to wait and see. Keep checking back in the coming days for more on this potential storm!
Showing posts with label major hurricane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label major hurricane. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Friday, August 17, 2007
Dean Explodes
HURRICANE DEAN HAS EXPLODED AND IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH. HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE 11PM ADVISORY:
Here is the latest radar from San Juan....it shows a very well defined eye, indicating a strong hurricane!DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Major Hurricane Dean
Hurricane Dean became a Major Hurricane today (See post titled "TD-4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale" 8/13) as it achieved category 3 status. It has winds of 125mph, which means its already half way to category 4 status. Dean is expected to continue to strengthen. Right now, Dean is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico.
Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.
Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.
This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.
Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!
Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.
Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.
This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.
Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!
Monday, August 13, 2007
TD 4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale
The system that was the subject of the last blog post has taken its first step to becoming a major player in the weather during the next 7-14 days. The system has become a tropical depression, the weakest classified tropical system. Winds are currently sustained at 35 mph. As you can see below, the system is still a very long ways from land. Based on historical data of storms that form in that area, the projected path looks fairly consistent. However, those projections can change in a hurry, so don't put too much stock in them until the system evolves more.
So of course, the next questions are: How strong will this become and where will it head? Neither of those questions can be answered for sure yet; its still a very young system, being upgraded just today. However, I do think there is a good bet it will become a hurricane, possibly a "major" one. Some of the "experts" from Accuweather.com have been saying Florida looks like a prime target. But in reality, its impossible to tell with any degree of certainty.
Wait a second...a "major" hurricane? What does that mean? Since hurricane season is heating up, its a good time to review the "Saffir-Simpson Scale," which is used to measure hurricanes based on wind speeds. There are 5 categories of hurricanes, 1 being the weakest, 5 the most powerful and rarest. Anything with a category 3 or higher is considered a "major" hurricane. Here is the complete scale, just focusing on categories and wind speeds:
Now, these winds are sustained winds. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average. Individual gusts within the hurricane can far exceed the sustained wind speeds.
Keep checking back for updates on TD-4, which will like be named either "Dean" or "Erin" depending on another area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
So of course, the next questions are: How strong will this become and where will it head? Neither of those questions can be answered for sure yet; its still a very young system, being upgraded just today. However, I do think there is a good bet it will become a hurricane, possibly a "major" one. Some of the "experts" from Accuweather.com have been saying Florida looks like a prime target. But in reality, its impossible to tell with any degree of certainty.
Wait a second...a "major" hurricane? What does that mean? Since hurricane season is heating up, its a good time to review the "Saffir-Simpson Scale," which is used to measure hurricanes based on wind speeds. There are 5 categories of hurricanes, 1 being the weakest, 5 the most powerful and rarest. Anything with a category 3 or higher is considered a "major" hurricane. Here is the complete scale, just focusing on categories and wind speeds:
- Category 1: Winds between 74-95 mph
- Category 2: Winds between 96-100 mph
- Category 3*: Winds between 111-130 mph
- Category 4*: Winds between 131-155
- Category 5*: Winds over 156 mph
Now, these winds are sustained winds. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average. Individual gusts within the hurricane can far exceed the sustained wind speeds.
Keep checking back for updates on TD-4, which will like be named either "Dean" or "Erin" depending on another area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
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