Was Irene Really a Bust?

In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"

If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.

The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?

If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.

As of this writing, 2.5 million homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. Homes have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for over 150 years. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?

And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.

The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.

Dean Explodes

HURRICANE DEAN HAS EXPLODED AND IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 4 STORM WITH WINDS OF 145 MPH. HERE IS AN EXCERPT FROM THE 11PM ADVISORY:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Here is the latest radar from San Juan....it shows a very well defined eye, indicating a strong hurricane!

Major Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean became a Major Hurricane today (See post titled "TD-4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale" 8/13) as it achieved category 3 status. It has winds of 125mph, which means its already half way to category 4 status. Dean is expected to continue to strengthen. Right now, Dean is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico.

Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.


Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.

This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.

Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!

Where will Dean go?

Dean has become the first hurricane of the season. As of 7AM today, it has peak winds of 80mph and is expected to continue strengthening. In fact, according to the National Hurricane Center, by this time Sunday, Dean has a 40% of being a major hurricane, with winds any where over 111mph. So, where is this potential monster headed? And how will Puerto Rico, where a couple of Groton Residents will be this weekend, fare?

As you can see below, the projected track takes Dean through the Caribbean Sea and towards the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.



However, keep in mind that the projected path is of the center of the storm, where as the storm is much bigger. Taking a look at the chances for Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds will give a better idea of who will be effected by this storm:



The hurricane force winds map isn't showing much since these maps were issued before Dean became a hurricane. In general, Puerto Rico is going to have a period of heavy rain and high winds. However, it shouldn't last too long, and it looks like it might come at night, so our fellow Grotonites shouldn't have their vacation ruined!

TD 4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale

The system that was the subject of the last blog post has taken its first step to becoming a major player in the weather during the next 7-14 days. The system has become a tropical depression, the weakest classified tropical system. Winds are currently sustained at 35 mph. As you can see below, the system is still a very long ways from land. Based on historical data of storms that form in that area, the projected path looks fairly consistent. However, those projections can change in a hurry, so don't put too much stock in them until the system evolves more.


So of course, the next questions are: How strong will this become and where will it head? Neither of those questions can be answered for sure yet; its still a very young system, being upgraded just today. However, I do think there is a good bet it will become a hurricane, possibly a "major" one. Some of the "experts" from Accuweather.com have been saying Florida looks like a prime target. But in reality, its impossible to tell with any degree of certainty.

Wait a second...a "major" hurricane? What does that mean? Since hurricane season is heating up, its a good time to review the "Saffir-Simpson Scale," which is used to measure hurricanes based on wind speeds. There are 5 categories of hurricanes, 1 being the weakest, 5 the most powerful and rarest. Anything with a category 3 or higher is considered a "major" hurricane. Here is the complete scale, just focusing on categories and wind speeds:

• Category 1: Winds between 74-95 mph
• Category 2: Winds between 96-100 mph
• Category 3*: Winds between 111-130 mph
• Category 4*: Winds between 131-155
  
• Category 5*: Winds over 156 mph

*Denotes a major hurricane

Now, these winds are sustained winds. Sustained winds are a 1-minute average. Individual gusts within the hurricane can far exceed the sustained wind speeds.

Keep checking back for updates on TD-4, which will like be named either "Dean" or "Erin" depending on another area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

Vigorous Tropical Wave Needs Watching

For days now, models have been saying a tropical wave would develop into a hurricane and churn across the Atlantic. Friday, the system in question came off the coast of Africa as a vigorous tropical wave. This wave has stayed healthy in its first 36 hours over water and could become a tropical depression as soon as this afternoon or evening. Conditions look favorable and the models still agree that this should become a hurricane. The thing the models haven't been agreeing on is where this will go, ranging from Mexico to Maine. Most times with storms that form where this one is, it is somewhere between Florida and Virginia that gets hit. Of course, it is way way way too soon to tell where it will go. The storm is still 10-14 days away from the United States coast. I will be posting updates through the week, so stay tuned!