We all knew it was probably only a matter of time before the weather finally turned more winter like. We got a taste of winter yesterday with some lake effect snow, strong winds, and temperatures in the 20s. While we have been warm lately, 500 miles to the north has been frigid. The chill yesterday and, to some extent, today, is just a small piece of that cold pool.
A much bigger piece will be breaking off next week. It will easily be the coldest air so far this season, with highs Tuesday and probably Wednesday staying in the teens. There will be wind. There will be snow. But will this be an 'arctic outbreak'?
There is no set definition for an arctic outbreak, so the use of the term is up to the discretion of the forecaster. It seems to me, however, that 'arctic outbreak' should be a term reserved for record setting or dangerous cold. It is a strong term that grabs people's attention. I do not think it should be overused.
Does the combination of high temperatures in the teens, gusty winds and lake effect snow meet these qualifications? I am honestly on the fence.
On the one hand, it seems to me that highs in the teens are not all that impressive, given our climatology and the time of the year. Some lake effect snow and wind? That is just normal winter weather here.
Yet, on the other hand, this has not been a typical winter. We have only one high temperature under 30º (on the 24th...the high yesterday was actually 40, albeit that was at midnight). Snow has been scarce to non-existent. Being suddenly thrust into mid-winter weather may catch some off guard and create dangerous conditions.
In the end though, I think I would hesitate to use the words 'arctic outbreak' in my forecasts for the coming cold snap. I believe that the public should be aware that the pattern is changing and, at least for a few days, winter will be here in full.
But I do not want to sensationalize things and blow them out of proportion. This event, after all, is still nearly a week away. I've seen many extreme temperature events forecast this far out, only to have the models gradually and consistently modify temperatures back towards more normal temperatures.
I want to hear what you think though. Join the discussion and post what your definition of an arctic outbreak would be on Facebook by clicking here.
Showing posts with label Lake Effect. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lake Effect. Show all posts
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Friday, January 21, 2011
Winter's Fury Unleashed
As posted by Drew Montreuil on Syracuse.com, 1/21/11
Old Man Winter sure is angry these days, and we will not be escaping his wrath over the next week or so. The first fits of his anger are already being felt across much of the northern half of the country. Yet another Nor'easter is striking parts of New England. This storm brought us 3-6" of snow overnight, but parts of Maine will see over a foot.
In the Midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued an 'Extreme Cold Warning' for parts of Minnesota last night. The Extreme Cold Warning is a new warning the NWS is trying out for temperatures lower than -40º. The warning surely verified, as temperatures this morning in International Falls, Minnesota got down to a mind-numbing -46º. Even Rochester, Minnesota, in the southern part of the state, dropped to -20º.
Some of the cold is on the way for us, but Old Man Winter has another shot to throw at us first: another bout of heavy lake effect snow. Schools across northern Cayuga, northern Onondaga and Oswego counties are dismissing early in anticipation of the lake effect blitz.
A huge contributor to heavy lake effect snow in a set-up like today's is whether or not moisture from the Upper Great Lakes is able to feed the Lake Ontario band. Observations from Canada this morning are indicating that the connection is being made, which only will increase the chances of heavy snow.
The lake effect will start up this afternoon and last into tomorrow morning before only gradually weakening and moving northward tomorrow. Some areas across Oswego, Oneida and northern Onondaga counties could see upwards of 2 feet by late tomorrow morning.
If that was not bad enough, the cold temperatures and winds will bring wind chills down to potentially dangerous levels late this afternoon and tonight. Even those not impacted by the lake effect will want to make sure they are properly bundled up against the cold.
This is all just the beginning though, and the next assault from Winter's War comes in Sunday and Monday. The bitter cold air mass that was over Minnesota this morning will work its way over us later this weekend.
High temperatures Sunday and Monday will struggle to reach 10º, and Sunday night will be the coldest night we have seen in a few years. Many areas across Central New York will see the mercury drop to -10º, and some of the outlying areas may even see -20º.
And now, could a grand finale to Old Man Winter's assault be in the works? The latest long range weather models are showing hints of another coastal storm in the works for the middle of next week. If the current model projections hold true, Central New York could be looking at its biggest widespread snow of the season so far. While it is way too early to tell whether or not that will come to pass, it will need to be watched as we head into next week.
On the bright side...at least its not -46º!
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Waterspouts in Oswego!
One of the major draws to SUNY Oswego for meteorology majors (besides the epic snow) is the waterspouts that occur every fall over Lake Ontario. For those that are not familiar with waterspouts, they are similar to weak tornadoes over water. They are caused in part by the stark differences between the warm lake waters and cold air over top, hence why they occur mostly in the fall.
As the 4th and final fall of my time at Oswego began to draw to a close...I had begun to relent to the fact that waterspout season was ending and, in all four of my years, I had not yet seen one. I have had many close calls, but they are typically short lived and difficult to spot. However, today, my patience finally paid off and I was treated to a total of three waterspouts!
And, the number one rule of a meteorologist is to ALWAYS have your camera on hand. And so, thanks to that rule, here are some pictures of the waterspouts I witnessed at long last! Enjoy!
It may not look like the previous pictures'
waterspouts were touching the water. However,
this picture, in the middle, shows the "spray
ring" beneath the funnels. Even though invisible,
the circulation of these waterspouts most
certainly extended from cloud to water.
Even with the 24x zoom on my camera, it is
still difficult to see the spray. Look right above
the water, just slight right of center.
This was the last funnel I saw, and the hardest
to see/photograph. The lighter gray area in the
top center is the funnel. This one only lasted a
couple minutes and was much closer to shore
than the other two.
As the 4th and final fall of my time at Oswego began to draw to a close...I had begun to relent to the fact that waterspout season was ending and, in all four of my years, I had not yet seen one. I have had many close calls, but they are typically short lived and difficult to spot. However, today, my patience finally paid off and I was treated to a total of three waterspouts!
And, the number one rule of a meteorologist is to ALWAYS have your camera on hand. And so, thanks to that rule, here are some pictures of the waterspouts I witnessed at long last! Enjoy!
It may not look like the previous pictures'
waterspouts were touching the water. However,
this picture, in the middle, shows the "spray
ring" beneath the funnels. Even though invisible,
the circulation of these waterspouts most
certainly extended from cloud to water.
Even with the 24x zoom on my camera, it is
still difficult to see the spray. Look right above
the water, just slight right of center.
This was the last funnel I saw, and the hardest
to see/photograph. The lighter gray area in the
top center is the funnel. This one only lasted a
couple minutes and was much closer to shore
than the other two.
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Late Season Storm
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Here is the latest on the late season snow event tomorrow.
Not a whole lot has changed since this morning. The cold front is spreading areas of rain across the region this afternoon. This front extends all the way into the southeast and back towards Louisiana and Texas. An area of low pressure is developing across the Deep South and will trigger a large severe weather out break tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large moderate risk out for that:
The front that is moving through today will stall out to our east. Meanwhile, that low will fly up the front to a position near New York City by mid afternoon tomorrow. There will be just enough cold air being pulled into the storm that it should be all snow for the areas in blue on this map I created:
The low will be moving pretty quickly up the stalled front and the ground is warm, so accumulations shouldn't be huge. The change over to snow will occur first in the higher elevations, and it will remain colder there as well, so expect the highest totals there. The rest of Central New York should get a moderate snow, but not enough to cause too many problem. It will be windy as well though, so use caution traveling tomorrow as the wind and snow will create poor visibilities. Here is my snowfall map for the entire storm, which should wind down pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.
Where does this storm rank with some other 'out of season' storms? Its actually not very impressive. In 2007, our area was hit by almost 2 feet (18" is what I measured) on April 16-17th. In early October 2006, a monster lake effect event pounded Buffalo, causing millions of dollars worth of damage since the heavy wet snow stuck to the leaves on trees and brought them down. So this is more just a nuisance storm than anything. One commonality between the three storms is the lack of willingness on the part of the media to be bold and predict snow. Granted, the models are all over the place with this, as can be expected. But I feel really confident about this storm, as I did the April 2007 storm.
I will update again late tonight. I have a test in Tropical Meteorology (so ironic, isn't it?) tomorrow, so I won't be able to update again until 10 or 11. Stay tuned though!
Here is the latest on the late season snow event tomorrow.
Not a whole lot has changed since this morning. The cold front is spreading areas of rain across the region this afternoon. This front extends all the way into the southeast and back towards Louisiana and Texas. An area of low pressure is developing across the Deep South and will trigger a large severe weather out break tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has a large moderate risk out for that:
The front that is moving through today will stall out to our east. Meanwhile, that low will fly up the front to a position near New York City by mid afternoon tomorrow. There will be just enough cold air being pulled into the storm that it should be all snow for the areas in blue on this map I created:
The low will be moving pretty quickly up the stalled front and the ground is warm, so accumulations shouldn't be huge. The change over to snow will occur first in the higher elevations, and it will remain colder there as well, so expect the highest totals there. The rest of Central New York should get a moderate snow, but not enough to cause too many problem. It will be windy as well though, so use caution traveling tomorrow as the wind and snow will create poor visibilities. Here is my snowfall map for the entire storm, which should wind down pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.
Where does this storm rank with some other 'out of season' storms? Its actually not very impressive. In 2007, our area was hit by almost 2 feet (18" is what I measured) on April 16-17th. In early October 2006, a monster lake effect event pounded Buffalo, causing millions of dollars worth of damage since the heavy wet snow stuck to the leaves on trees and brought them down. So this is more just a nuisance storm than anything. One commonality between the three storms is the lack of willingness on the part of the media to be bold and predict snow. Granted, the models are all over the place with this, as can be expected. But I feel really confident about this storm, as I did the April 2007 storm.
I will update again late tonight. I have a test in Tropical Meteorology (so ironic, isn't it?) tomorrow, so I won't be able to update again until 10 or 11. Stay tuned though!
Friday, November 21, 2008
3PM Snow Update
Sorry this update is a bit later than I promised. I ran into some difficulties with making the snow map.
The lake effect has been pretty disorganized through the day as winds haven't really aligned themselves well yet. The models showed this happening relatively well. This disorganization should continue until about sunset, when things really start to get going. I am expecting multiple bands of lake effect to form, with probably two main bands. They will move around a bit overnight, so plenty of areas should see some high snow totals. Here is what I am thinking for amounts by 9AM tomorrow morning:
As with any lake effect event, not every area within each contour will get that amount of snow and the variance from one spot to another can be very large. So, that snow map shows the most likely amounts that are to occur in each area.
Tomorrow, the lake effect should calm down as the day gets into the afternoon. Additional accumulations tomorrow will likely be anywhere from 1-4" in the white and light blue areas, to 3-7" in the darker blue.
The lake effect has been pretty disorganized through the day as winds haven't really aligned themselves well yet. The models showed this happening relatively well. This disorganization should continue until about sunset, when things really start to get going. I am expecting multiple bands of lake effect to form, with probably two main bands. They will move around a bit overnight, so plenty of areas should see some high snow totals. Here is what I am thinking for amounts by 9AM tomorrow morning:
As with any lake effect event, not every area within each contour will get that amount of snow and the variance from one spot to another can be very large. So, that snow map shows the most likely amounts that are to occur in each area.
Tomorrow, the lake effect should calm down as the day gets into the afternoon. Additional accumulations tomorrow will likely be anywhere from 1-4" in the white and light blue areas, to 3-7" in the darker blue.
Quick Friday Morning Update
Only have time for a quick update this morning. Expect a more complete update this afternoon between 1:30-3.
The Lake Effect Snow Watches have been replaced with warnings and advisories. Which counties are under what is shown below. I honestly can not begin to fathom why Tompkins County is NOT under at least an advisory. The NWS forecast for Ithaca is calling for 1-2" of snow today, then another 4-6" overnight and 2-4" more on Saturday. That is a total of 7-12". That is even beyond advisory criteria...we should be under a warning. The amounts forecast by the NWS for Groton are even higher.
Make sure to tune back this afternoon. I will be updating as soon as I can.
The Lake Effect Snow Watches have been replaced with warnings and advisories. Which counties are under what is shown below. I honestly can not begin to fathom why Tompkins County is NOT under at least an advisory. The NWS forecast for Ithaca is calling for 1-2" of snow today, then another 4-6" overnight and 2-4" more on Saturday. That is a total of 7-12". That is even beyond advisory criteria...we should be under a warning. The amounts forecast by the NWS for Groton are even higher.
Make sure to tune back this afternoon. I will be updating as soon as I can.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
More Lake Effect Coming!
Lake effect snow watches have been posted for 2/3 of the grotonweather forecast area, so I decided to go with a blog entry tonight instead of a normal update.. In general, I think I will mostly blog-update during this event, which means you will see the blog up when you come to the site until Sunday morning. As always, you can get to the main page by cicking the banner at the top of the page, or by following the 'Homepage' link under 'Grotonweather Pages'. The homepage currently isn't updated, but will be later tonight or tomorrow as well though. To the weather now:
A very weak and moisture starved storm system has been moving across the area today. This storm will turn winds more northerly tonight and then northwesterly for Friday and Saturday. The airmass that is moving in is pretty much perfect for a big lake effect snow event. I can not remember the NWS posting Lake Effect Snow Watches for areas so far away from the Lake, yet Southern Cayuga and Cortland Counties are both under watches. Admittedly, this is another one of those situations I so often talk about where something is issued for Southern Cayugan and Cortland, but really applies for Groton and Northeastern Tompkins County as well. That is why, on the map below, I have shaded the counties under the watch, as well as where I think the best shot for heavy snow is.
The exact location of the band(s), as usual, is a tough forecast. Normally with this kind of set up, there seems to be a heavy band across Northern Cayuga County, stretching right through Syracuse and into Madison County. A second, slightly weak band, likes to set up in Southern Cayuga and Northern Cortland counties, clipping the Groton area. Of course, these bands aren't always in the same position, and 10 miles difference can make the difference between 2" or 12".
My best guess at amounts are this: Someone in the northern half of the pink area will get well over a foot, possibly upwards of 2 feet by Sunday morning. In the southern half of the pink, someone will get a foot.
The weather models I had available to me this afternoon were from early this morning. As more recent models come in, I will try to pin down amounts a bit more. Stay tuned!
A very weak and moisture starved storm system has been moving across the area today. This storm will turn winds more northerly tonight and then northwesterly for Friday and Saturday. The airmass that is moving in is pretty much perfect for a big lake effect snow event. I can not remember the NWS posting Lake Effect Snow Watches for areas so far away from the Lake, yet Southern Cayuga and Cortland Counties are both under watches. Admittedly, this is another one of those situations I so often talk about where something is issued for Southern Cayugan and Cortland, but really applies for Groton and Northeastern Tompkins County as well. That is why, on the map below, I have shaded the counties under the watch, as well as where I think the best shot for heavy snow is.
The exact location of the band(s), as usual, is a tough forecast. Normally with this kind of set up, there seems to be a heavy band across Northern Cayuga County, stretching right through Syracuse and into Madison County. A second, slightly weak band, likes to set up in Southern Cayuga and Northern Cortland counties, clipping the Groton area. Of course, these bands aren't always in the same position, and 10 miles difference can make the difference between 2" or 12".
My best guess at amounts are this: Someone in the northern half of the pink area will get well over a foot, possibly upwards of 2 feet by Sunday morning. In the southern half of the pink, someone will get a foot.
The weather models I had available to me this afternoon were from early this morning. As more recent models come in, I will try to pin down amounts a bit more. Stay tuned!
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