Narrow Miss; 4:40PM Update

That was a close call. The storm continued its rotation until just east of Ithaca. The actual core of the storm was between Lansing and Groton, with the tornado most likely in Lansing. This is because tornadoes usually form on the southwest side of the storm.

The warning at 4PM read:
"AND SOME SPOTTERS HAVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO ON THE

GROUND."

For those of you in West Groton, Lansing and Ithaca, if you have pictures, PLEASE send them to me along with any stories of the storm you may have! I would appreciate it greatly!

email is: alerts@grotonweather.com

There are still a few more storms out there, but they should probably head west of here as well. After that, our watch will probably be cancelled.

TORNADIC CELL HEADED TOWARDS GROTON!

There is a VERY nasty storm heading our way. This one has it all, wind, hail and yes, rotation. It has been rotating for nearly half an hour now and it is getting ready to cross Seneca County. Here is the image I am getting on my storm software:


The yellow circle overtop of the storm indicates that there is rotation with this storm. If it holds together, we could be in for large hail and damaging winds. When storms rotate, they can produce tornadoes at ANY time, so be ready when this storm hits! I will update on this storm around 4:10 or 4:15.

UPDATE: THIS CELL HAS A TORNADO WARNING WITH IT FOR SENECA AND CAYGUA COUNTY!!!!!!!!!!!!! TAKE COVER IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHERN TOMPKINS NEEDS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND TAKE COVER AS WELL! THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE FOR THIS STORM...I NEED TO PREAPRE!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING GROTON

Whoa...things are happening too quick for me to keep up with! A severe thunderstorm WATCH is in effect for the area until 10 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is in effect FOR GROTON and points north and west! This storm likely has hail and gusty winds with it. Here is the warning link:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

even though the text says Seneca and Cayuga County, we are included in the warning box. However, it looks like the nasty stuff will stay north


For those of you south of Groton, I have had a report of hail just east of Lansing about 10 minutes ago. This storm is headed towards Dryden and on south of Marathon. There are more storms behind the one with the warning that also have warnings. More on them as the approach!

Storm Update: 9PM

Well, the line of thunderstorms has held together and moved a bit quicker than I expected. While there are no warnings and have been no severe reports, the line still has potential to have some gusty winds and very small hail. There is also quite a bit of rain and embedded thunderstorms behind the line, so once it starts, it will likely be raining off and on for quite some time. Some rain ahead of the main line has just started to fall, with the heavier stuff coming between 9:30 and 10. The best chance for an isolated severe storm appears to be to our north, over Cayuga County and points east.

Severe Update: 6:15PM

Our severe thunderstorm watch continues this evening until 9PM. There is a cluster of thunderstorms in Rochester, which are moving out over Lake Ontario and will pose no threat to our area. Then, there is an organized line of storms entering New York and Pennsylvania. The only warnings with this line right now are well to the south. Based on the lack of severity now and the fact that this line won't come through after 10 or 11 tonight, I think our severe threat has greatly diminished. Even though Groton got missed...somehow....it was still a pretty large outbreak locally, with 4 wind/hail reports within 20 miles of Groton, and many more further out. Even the tornado threat panned out, with a tornado less than 100 miles away in Central Pennsylvania. If there is a reason to update, I will do so, but not until after 9PM.

According to the NWS, Cortland County was hit pretty hard. The report, however, for some reason that escapes me, got listed as a "non-thunderstorm" wind report, meaning it won't be listed with all the other ones. Regaurdless, if you have any pictures, please send them to me and I will post them!
non-thunderstorm wind? What are they thinking?

I can't believe it

I swear, these storms hate me and refuse to hit Groton! The severe storms to our west decided to randomly collapse and reform not 5 miles to the east of Groton. I wouldn't be surprised if places like Lick Street and Salt Street got very heavy rain and high winds, maybe some small hail as the storms "jumped" across the county. See for yourself: here is the current radar, which shows the weakening storms to our west, and monsters to the east.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING GROTON

From the National Weather Service:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC109-191900-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0080.070619T1821Z-070619T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TOMPKINS COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PERRY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TAUGHANNOCK FALLS AT 235 PM EDT...
7 MILES NORTH OF LANSING AT 250 PM EDT...
GROTON AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF FREEVILLE AT 300 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS
OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

2:45PM UPDATE: This storm seems to becoming more of a small
line. The hail sizes my software is recording are deecreasing
as well. What that means is the wind threat is probably
increasing as opposed to the hail threat. Also, the 3PM the
NWS has listed for an arrival time in Groton is way off.
3:30-4PM is still a better estiamte.

Severe Weather Update: 2PM

Things have really fired up in the past few hours. As I stated earlier, multiple lines have formed, all to our west, meaning our chances for severe thunderstorms are pretty good. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM. There are multiple areas to watch, so here is the breakdown:

Closest to the Groton area now are a few individual cells. There is one just south of Auburn, and another west of Trumansburg. They are moving towards the east northeast and probably contain some hail. The storm west of Trumansburg will be a close call for Groton. According to my storm tracking software, this storm has hail up to 2" and would probably reach here between 3 and 4 PM. Anytime you get individual cells out ahead of the line on a day like today, it needs to be watched for rotation. I will update on this storm again towards 3PM. Here is the screenshot of my storm tracking software. Groton is marked by the diamond that says "Grotonweather" towards the right. Click the image for a larger view.














Not far behind these cells is the first line of thunderstorms. Wind damage reports are already wide spread through Western New York. This line will move through not long after the cells clear the area, probably between 3:30 and 4:30. The main threat with these storms will be wind damage.

Further to the southwest, over Pennsylvania, there are more scattered cells. These need to be watched in case they form another line. More on those storms as they develop.

Lastly, there is another line of storms over eastern Ohio and Ontario. This line is along the cold front and probably won't move through until after sunset. Because it will have lost the day time heating, its severe threat will have greatly diminished.

Keep checking back as the storms continue to approach and develop!

Severe Storms, New Features coming

Another round of severe thunderstorms will be coming to the area later, probably during the late afternoon and early evening hours. There is also some non-weather news, as I have once again been working on improving grotonweather.com. Read on for more!

Another powerful cold front will come through the region later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures ahead of this front will be in the low 90's and humid, providing fuel for the storms. It looks like multiple lines of storms will form during the day. While one of these lines is already forming well to our west along the cold front, it is any one's guess where the other ones will form. If they get going to our west, our chances for severe weather are much higher. If the lines form to our east, I don't think the line along the cold front will retain its severe levels by the time it reaches here, probably after the sun sets. The main severe threat will be wind and hail, though the conditions appear favorable for a brief tornado or two, especially to areas east of I-81. Even though the largest severe threats appear to be west and east of Groton, the situation should be watched and I will updating as needed throughout the day.

School is out! Congratulations to my fellow classmates as we graduate Saturday (which should be an absolutely perfect weather day!) Since school is out, I have time on my hands. I have been using some of this time to once again upgrade and improve grotonweather.com! I have been conducting a survey (which I would still love for you to take by clicking here) and it quickly became evident that a more regional forecast would be helpful. So, I have been working on how best to include a broader look at the weather. I have it pretty much figured out and just have a few kinks left to work out. While its not ready to be viewed and updated, I did take a screenshot of what it looks like so far. Take a look (click for larger view):

Severe Update: 4:30PM

Here is the latest on the severe situation...there is good news, and there is bad news.

The good news is, storms aren't forming ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that stretches from Ontario down into the Deep South. This line is a it broken in Ohio, and it is there that there are a few super cell thunderstorms, which have produced funnel clouds, 4.25" hail, lots of wind damage and, probably a tornado or two. However, it looks like our chances for tornadic storms are slightly less than earlier.

Now the bad news. According to Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, the reason storms are not firing ahead of the main line is because the main line is so strong. Basically, the line is using up the energy in the atmosphere to fuel its self. According to the software I am using to track these storms, the should begin to enter the area sometime after 8. With the intensity of this line, I am not sure it will weaken as it loses its day time heating. It may, so that is something to watch as the evening progresses.

Overall, our chances for storms to fire ahead of this line are decreased, but not gone. An isolated tornado or two is still possible in the general area. Later tonight, expect a line of storms to come through with strong, damaging winds, especially for areas west of us.

Severe Weather: noon update

Here is the latest on today's severe weather threat:

Severe thunderstorm watches are out from Ohio and Michigan through Arkansas. We need to focus on Ohio and Michigan since that is what will head our way later this afternoon. As of now, just a few isolated cells have started to fire up. These storms will continue to fire up both in this area, and further to the east.

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in "slight" as opposed to the "moderate" that the experts at Accuweather were expecting. Henry Margusity still believes they will upgrade to a moderate risk zone, which is 3rd on a 4 level risk system. The image to the right shows where he would issue the Moderate risk. As you can see, he is keying in on areas just to our west for the worst weather to occur. This is probably because the timing of these storms may be more towards dinner time and later as opposed to 2-4PM. Even if we don't get in the moderate risk, if one gets issued, conditions are still ripe for severe weather and this is still a serious set up. The tornado threat is still here, though it is higher further west. Overall, I am still saying 3-10 tornadoes in New York and Pennsylvania. The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is scheduled for sometime near or after 12:30 (which is in just 10 minutes, so we will see if they upgrade us.

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW

OK...here is the more in depth forecast for tomorrow, when some major severe weather will come across the region. We have not seen a set-up like this in quite some time and we could be dealing with a bit of a tornado outbreak!

A very powerful storm system is plowing through the Midwest right now, and has already spawned over half a dozen tornadoes, with many more to come. Yesterday, the storm system didn't have as much severe weather because it was actually too strong! The high winds aloft shredded thunderstorms and major severe weather never occurred. However, today and tomorrow, that has changed. After lots of tornadoes, wind and hail tonight, this storm system will have its eyes on the Northeast, specifically Western and Central New York and Pennsylvania. Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather.com, says he is "very concerned" about our area for tomorrow on his blog. He seems particularly concerned with the tornado threat, which is something we don't see much. On his blog, he specifically mentions a number of cities that are under the largest threat, among which he includes Binghamton, Syracuse and Rochester. Here is the link to his blog on Accuweather.com if you care to read/watch what a real expert has to say as opposed to someone who has yet to graduate high-school.

Here is how tomorrow should shape up. The morning will be windy and sunny. After lows in the mid 60's, this sun and wind will only help boost our temperatures. Tomorrow could also end up being the hottest day so far this year, getting well into the 90's. Along with the heat, there will be plenty of humidity in place, so tomorrow will be a very nasty, muggy, hot day. In fact, heavy exercise outside probably isn't a good idea any time after noon. All this hot, moist air will be doing battle with cold air aloft, creating a lot of lift and instability. This will lead to the formation of towering thunderclouds. With strong winds aloft from the northwest and gusty winds from the south and southwest in the low and mid levels, everything is prime for these storms to rotate and produce tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible. These storms will fire up in the afternoon and continue through the day. A more solidified line should move through later, with the main threat being wind damage with that. Overall, this has potential to be a tornado outbreak like we haven't seen in nearly a decade. Back in the late 90's, I remember a situation in Late May where there were over 30 tornadoes in New York. This will probably be the largest New York/Pennsylvania tornado outbreak since then.

Ok...so here is some quick review that will be helpful tomorrow. I would imagine we will have a tornado watch issued for us, probably by 1 or 2 PM. A tornado watch means conditions will be favorable for tornadoes, but doesn't mean there are any yet. Now, a means a tornado is either detected or spotted. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, YOU MUST TAKE ACTION RIGHT AWAY! What do you do? Head to the lowest level of the building you are in. Go to an interior room that has no windows. If you are in school or some other such building, head to the hallways and sit against the wall. If you get caught outside and can't get inside, find a ditch and lay in it. In all of these situations, if the tornado hits you, COVER YOUR HEAD to protect it from injury. If you are in a car, get inside a building or find a ditch. DO NOT HIDE UNDER AN OVERPASS. Overpasses actually act as a wind tunnel and strengthen the winds.

Tomorrow during the day, I will post updates as much as I can to keep you ahead of the storm. Keep checking the grotonweather homepage and pay attention to the watches and warnings that are issued. And most of all, stay safe!