Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Thunderstorms have begun to develop all across the Northeast and Ohio Valley, including Central and Western New York. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of the counties shaded in blue below, including Tompkins County pretty much smack dab in the middle of the watch:



The probabilities with this watch indicate that the SPC is most concerned with hail, followed closely by damaging winds. The chances of 10 or more hail reports in the watch area is 70%, with a 50% chance of 10 or more hail reports.

Looking at the regional radar, you can see lots of thunderstorms scattered about the area. These will continue to develop, increasing in strength and coverage.
Stay tuned for any warnings!

Not Done Yet

One round of severe storms has exited the region and pressed eastward. This line didn't look like it was going to do much for Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Cayuga counties, but right as it got here, it exploded rapidly. Just shows what a little bit extra heating and humidity can do for storms, as tempertures before the storms had reached into the mid 80's. These storms have caused quite a few hail and wind reports, as expected. Here is the storm report map as of 1:02PM.


Tempertures are back into the low 80's after about a 15 degree drop with those storms. That means we are certainly still have fuel to work with for the rest of the day. Thunderstorms are also now starting to develop well to our west along the cold front in Ohio. They haven't been going for long, but are already looking strong and developing into a line. This is what I have expected to happen, so everything still looks favorable for another, possibly more intense, line of storms later this evening.


In between then and now, additional storms are possible, also with damaging winds and hail. I'll continue to update through the day, so stay tuned!

Pre-frontal Storms

The first storms of the day have been ongoing across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York. There have been occasional warnings with these storms, so they have the potential to be severe. However, this isn't the main event today. The cold front still sits way back to the west over Southern Ontario, Western Ohio and Eastern Indiana. On the radar image below, you can see the line of storms along the front begining to form just east of Michigan.



The Storm Prediction Center also updated their outlooks and maps (which I don't have graphics for at this time...). We are still in the moderate risk zone, but the core of it was shifted to the east. All this means to me is the SPC is thinking the line will for a little further east. While I agree with extending the zone further east into Vermont and New England, I am not so sure I agree with cutting the Western Finger Lakes out. We will see.

9:50AM Update: The Storm Prediction Center is now saying they will issue a watch shortly for our area. Stay tunde for updates as the watch is issued!

5PM Storm Update

The storm center is tracking across southern Pennsylvania right now and slowly turning northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over all of Central New York. Below is the latest radar image from weathertap, and there are a few things noteworthy about it.


1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....

2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while

2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.

3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.

What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.

Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.

Severe Update: 4:30PM

Here is the latest on the severe situation...there is good news, and there is bad news.

The good news is, storms aren't forming ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that stretches from Ontario down into the Deep South. This line is a it broken in Ohio, and it is there that there are a few super cell thunderstorms, which have produced funnel clouds, 4.25" hail, lots of wind damage and, probably a tornado or two. However, it looks like our chances for tornadic storms are slightly less than earlier.

Now the bad news. According to Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, the reason storms are not firing ahead of the main line is because the main line is so strong. Basically, the line is using up the energy in the atmosphere to fuel its self. According to the software I am using to track these storms, the should begin to enter the area sometime after 8. With the intensity of this line, I am not sure it will weaken as it loses its day time heating. It may, so that is something to watch as the evening progresses.

Overall, our chances for storms to fire ahead of this line are decreased, but not gone. An isolated tornado or two is still possible in the general area. Later tonight, expect a line of storms to come through with strong, damaging winds, especially for areas west of us.