Severe Thunderstorm Potential: Misleading Watches!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued two severe thunderstorm watches this afternoon. One is over eastern New York and comes as close to Tompkins County as neighboring Cortland and Tioga Counties. The second stretches along the NY/Pennsylvania boarder and south, reaching almost as far west Lake Erie.

The fact that Tompkins County is not in a watch by no means indicates a lack of severe storms threat. This is a very misleading situation. For starters, Groton is just 10 miles from Cortland County. The conditions in Cortland and the conditions in Groton and most of Tompkins county do not vary that greatly. If severe storms are possible there, they are possible here as well. But there must be a boundary, so one was drawn. Severe storms occur outside of watches all the time, so do not let your guard down!

Secondly, the Pennsylvania watch extends well to our west. Following the motion the storms are taking and extending that watch northeast, the direction the storms are moving, we are well within the severe possibilities. Once again, do not let your guard down and make sure to keep checking for updates!

Ok..now onto what is happening right now. Storms have fired across the region. They are scattered for now, with the strongest storms being near Auburn and just west of Binghamton. There are more showers that may form into storms to the southwest that will need watching. Further back, over Western Pennsylvania, a large complex of rain and thunderstorms has been developing all day. These storms will move into the area later this evening. Whether or not the y will be severe remains to be seen, but at least a period of moderate to heavy rain later tonight looks to be in the works.

Keep checking back for updates! I will update at the top and bottom (:00 and :30) of the hour if I am going to update that hour!

Severe Thunderstorms Overnight?

A line of severe thunderstorms has developed over Western New York. These storms have had winds upwards of 65mph in Buffalo and are barreling to the east. It appears the strongest of the storms are heading north of Groton and Tompkins county. However, the line of storms extends well south, so the severe threat is there across all of Central New York and Pennsylvania. Expect these storms to move in probably between 11 and midnight tonight. I will not be updating again tonight....I have class at 8AM tomorrow!

East Coast Beware

This post is what is called "hype." That means its something that needs to be watched, but there is no promise it will or won't happen because its just too early.

However, the models have been handling this one consistently and has started to get Accuweather.com into an uproar...and in my experience, when Accuweather starts acting like they are now, there is a decent chance it will happen. What we are looking at is right now just a blob of clouds off the east coast of Florida. As the high pressure that has been over us for the past week or so slides off to the east, it will act as a big plug, preventing this blob from going anywhere. So, it will sit over warm waters and could spin up into a hurricane by later this week. It is too early to tell how strong, but a category 2 or 3 is possible. Its also impossible to tell where it will go. So, everywhere on the east coast, but especially the Carolinas and Virginia, needs to keep an eye on this one.

As for how it could impact us here in Central New York...we will have to wait and see. Keep checking back in the coming days for more on this potential storm!

Greetings from SUNY Oswego!

Hello Groton and surrounding areas! Last week, I left for SUNY Oswego to begin my "formal" education in meteorology. I just wanted to give you guys some idea as to the times to look for updates, based on my schedule...you may have noticed this week updates at seemingly random times, as well a lack of an update today.

I will do my best for daily updates. If I feel I won't get to update in the morning, I will make a forecast the night before. That being said, I don't see not being able to update as a major problem. Most days I hope to be updated by 8 or 9AM...but if I don't get to it then, it will probably be after noon before I get to update. On weekends, look for forecasts to come out between 9AM and noon, or earlier on Sundays.

Also, now that I am no longer with you, I need reports from you more than ever. Let me know what is going on!