Severe Storms, New Features coming

Another round of severe thunderstorms will be coming to the area later, probably during the late afternoon and early evening hours. There is also some non-weather news, as I have once again been working on improving grotonweather.com. Read on for more!

Another powerful cold front will come through the region later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures ahead of this front will be in the low 90's and humid, providing fuel for the storms. It looks like multiple lines of storms will form during the day. While one of these lines is already forming well to our west along the cold front, it is any one's guess where the other ones will form. If they get going to our west, our chances for severe weather are much higher. If the lines form to our east, I don't think the line along the cold front will retain its severe levels by the time it reaches here, probably after the sun sets. The main severe threat will be wind and hail, though the conditions appear favorable for a brief tornado or two, especially to areas east of I-81. Even though the largest severe threats appear to be west and east of Groton, the situation should be watched and I will updating as needed throughout the day.

School is out! Congratulations to my fellow classmates as we graduate Saturday (which should be an absolutely perfect weather day!) Since school is out, I have time on my hands. I have been using some of this time to once again upgrade and improve grotonweather.com! I have been conducting a survey (which I would still love for you to take by clicking here) and it quickly became evident that a more regional forecast would be helpful. So, I have been working on how best to include a broader look at the weather. I have it pretty much figured out and just have a few kinks left to work out. While its not ready to be viewed and updated, I did take a screenshot of what it looks like so far. Take a look (click for larger view):

Severe Update: 4:30PM

Here is the latest on the severe situation...there is good news, and there is bad news.

The good news is, storms aren't forming ahead of the main line of thunderstorms that stretches from Ontario down into the Deep South. This line is a it broken in Ohio, and it is there that there are a few super cell thunderstorms, which have produced funnel clouds, 4.25" hail, lots of wind damage and, probably a tornado or two. However, it looks like our chances for tornadic storms are slightly less than earlier.

Now the bad news. According to Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather, the reason storms are not firing ahead of the main line is because the main line is so strong. Basically, the line is using up the energy in the atmosphere to fuel its self. According to the software I am using to track these storms, the should begin to enter the area sometime after 8. With the intensity of this line, I am not sure it will weaken as it loses its day time heating. It may, so that is something to watch as the evening progresses.

Overall, our chances for storms to fire ahead of this line are decreased, but not gone. An isolated tornado or two is still possible in the general area. Later tonight, expect a line of storms to come through with strong, damaging winds, especially for areas west of us.

Severe Weather: noon update

Here is the latest on today's severe weather threat:

Severe thunderstorm watches are out from Ohio and Michigan through Arkansas. We need to focus on Ohio and Michigan since that is what will head our way later this afternoon. As of now, just a few isolated cells have started to fire up. These storms will continue to fire up both in this area, and further to the east.

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in "slight" as opposed to the "moderate" that the experts at Accuweather were expecting. Henry Margusity still believes they will upgrade to a moderate risk zone, which is 3rd on a 4 level risk system. The image to the right shows where he would issue the Moderate risk. As you can see, he is keying in on areas just to our west for the worst weather to occur. This is probably because the timing of these storms may be more towards dinner time and later as opposed to 2-4PM. Even if we don't get in the moderate risk, if one gets issued, conditions are still ripe for severe weather and this is still a serious set up. The tornado threat is still here, though it is higher further west. Overall, I am still saying 3-10 tornadoes in New York and Pennsylvania. The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is scheduled for sometime near or after 12:30 (which is in just 10 minutes, so we will see if they upgrade us.