SEVERE T-STORM WARNING

The southern portion of that line of storms has exploded very rapidly over Western Tompkins county. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings now run from Lake Ontario to Pennsylvania, including the Groton area. A large cell is about to hit Groton with lightning, strong winds and some hail likely. Take Cover now!

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED

Tompkins County, along with all of Central and Eastern New York is now under a TORNADO WATCH until 6PM tonight!


A little known fact about watches is that they each have probablities of certain severe weather events occuring. For this watch, there is over a 95% chance of 10 or more wind damage reports, as well as over a 95% chance of 10 or more hail reports and a 40% chance of 2 or more tornado reports. That means the main threat is still damaging winds, but tornadoes are becoming an increasing threat.

An update on that line of storms: The northern portion appears to be the stronger part, with numerous warnings now in effect. Stay tuned for more updates on these storms.



Also, the National Weather Service confirmed my belief about multiple lines of storms today when they issued this statement at 10:05AM:

... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today...

An initial line of thunderstorms will cross The Finger lakes
region... the twin tiers... the Mohawk Valley... and the southern Tug
Hill region this morning... generally between 930 am and 12 noon.
This includes Elmira... Corning... Syracuse... Utica... Binghamton...
and Montrose. Localized strong damaging winds and hail are
possible late this morning.

This afternoon... another round of thunderstorms is anticipated.
Additional lines of storms are expected to cross the area... generally
between 2 and 6 PM. Once again... strong winds and hail are the
primary threats.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... or local media outlets... for the
latest updates. Watches and/or warnings may well be issued later
today.

Pre-frontal Storms

The first storms of the day have been ongoing across Western Pennsylvania and Western New York. There have been occasional warnings with these storms, so they have the potential to be severe. However, this isn't the main event today. The cold front still sits way back to the west over Southern Ontario, Western Ohio and Eastern Indiana. On the radar image below, you can see the line of storms along the front begining to form just east of Michigan.



The Storm Prediction Center also updated their outlooks and maps (which I don't have graphics for at this time...). We are still in the moderate risk zone, but the core of it was shifted to the east. All this means to me is the SPC is thinking the line will for a little further east. While I agree with extending the zone further east into Vermont and New England, I am not so sure I agree with cutting the Western Finger Lakes out. We will see.

9:50AM Update: The Storm Prediction Center is now saying they will issue a watch shortly for our area. Stay tunde for updates as the watch is issued!