Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

 7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

Growing Flood Concern

 4:30PM Update-

Everything is progressing as I feared and a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Tompkins and southern Cayuga Counties. The ENTIRE Grotonweather forecast area is now under FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. This is going to be a long night for our area.

Wednesday- 2:15PM

So far, the Grotonweather.com tri-county area has more or less been spared of major problems, at least that I am aware of. Our neighbors to the south and east in Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties have not been as fortunate. Massive and widespread flooding has prompted Flash Flood EMERGENCIES for all three counties, with a State of Emergency also in effect for Broome County. Many roads are under water and bridges are in danger of washing out. This is a very dangerous and deadly situation in these areas. Under no circumstances should you be traveling to those areas tonight.

Here is what is really worrying me though...our luck could soon run out. In the image below, you can see a band of very heavy rain moving north through Pennsylvania right towards our area, which is outlined in red. The heavy rain to our east will continue to move to the northeast.

This band of rain extends all the way down past Washington DC and seems to only be increasing in size and intensity. If the flooding that is occurring to our south and east is any indication what a couple more inches of rain will do, our area may be in trouble.

I urge everyone to be extra vigilant this afternoon, evening and overnight. This is one of the most dangerous situations in Grotonweather history, if not for our immediate area, then for our neighbors directly nearby. DO NOT drive or walk in flood waters. If the water is flowing, chances are that you will need to be rescued. If you are told to evacuate, do so. In fact, if you live near a stream that is already full or near...be prepared to leave on a moment's notice. The time to prepare is now.

Please share this post with your friends and family.

Was Irene Really a Bust?

In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"

If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.

The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?

If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.

As of this writing, 2.5 million homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. Homes have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for over 150 years. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?

And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.

The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.

Major Flooding Reported

9:45PM UPDATE: The rain in Pennsylvania has still not turned east and is making me very nervous. The rain is as far north as I-80 in Central Pennsylvania. I unfortunately will not be able to update again until after after 12:30am. I will post a quick update at the time though.

The back edge of the rain shield is beginning to move through the Grotonweather tri-county area and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. Rainfall totals are over 3" over most of the area, and radar estimates max out at 4-5" over southern Cortland County. In all honesty though, it appears the radar is under estimating the precipitation, so I would not be surprised if places like Marathon got even more.

As I have been saying, if these rainfall amounts occurred in our area, the ground would not be able to handle it. Unfortunately, that prediction has come true. Here are a couple of the flooding reports I have heard so far, all from Cortland County:

• NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN CORTLAND COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
• Route 11 between Reagen Road and Hoxie Gorge Road is CLOSED due to a mudslide
• Other mudslides have also been reported
• In Homer: The Haights Gulf Bridge is out.
• In McGraw: Roads IMPASSABLE throughout the village
• Red Cross Shelter for evacuees in the gymnasium at the County Office Building

I have not heard of any flood reports in Tompkins or Cayuga Counties, but that does not mean it is not occurring. I cannot stress enough, never drive through flooded roadways!! There are roads underwater in the area. DO NOT attempt to cross the flood waters. Doing so may put your life in jeopardy. If you are told to evacuate your home, do so!

As I stated at the start, the rain is ending. However, this does not mean the flood threat is ending! Runoff will continue to create flood problems into tomorrow. Area rivers are not expected to reach their peak heights until about this time Friday.

There may be some additional rain tonight. What is left of Tropical Storm Nicole is moving up through North Carolina and Virginia currently. The models have consistently kept this rain off to our east tonight. However, the fact that the models were too far east with today's storm, and the fact that the radar from that region looks very much like it did last night (namely a large area of rain seemingly heading right at us) has me a little nervous. I should stress, though, that we are not in the same sort of set up now, and, thankfully, I do see indications in the upper atmosphere that this rain will turn to our east, as the models indicate. If the models were wrong, which I do not think they are, and we were to get another couple inches of rain tonight, it would be disastrous. Again, I do not think this will be the case.

In summary...the rain may be ending, but the flooding will continue into tomorrow. Stay safe!!!!

Heavy Rain Update: 4PM

4:40PM UPDATE: FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR S.CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 7:15 PM.

Very heavy rain has been falling across the area and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. The regional radar loop is showing the rain tapering a bit to just showers, but not until far Southern Pennsylvania. Even then, there is still some heavy rain...just not as widespread. We very well may only be about half way through this event, and already rainfall totals are getting quite high. Take a look at some of these reports:

Game Farm Road Climate Station, Ithaca: 1.36" through 3PM
Freeville: 1.41" through 3:42 PM
Virgil: 1.54" through 3:42PM
Binghamton Airport: 1.36" through 3PM
Deposit, NY (Deleware County): 2.99" between 7AM-1:22PM

If we double these amounts, most places will be up around 3-4", as expected. There are no flood warnings in the Grotonweather.com forecast area, but most of the counties to our south, east and north are under flood warnings. Most of these flood warnings are for larger rivers in anticipation of this additional rain. No flash flood warnings are in effect yet.

There are actually some more intense areas of rain and wind within the main area of heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for Broome County a little while ago! I changed the scaling on the radar program I use to make these areas stick out. The brighter the color, the heavier the rain. The heaviest rain seems to be concentrated over the Finger Lakes, with some of those heavier cells moving through Cayuga and Cortland Counties, as indicated by the dark reds and pinks. It is where these cells hit that the greatest chance for rainfall totals over 4" will occur.

As we go into the evening hours, I am anticipating starting to see some flash flooding problems as we start to approach the upper limits of what the ground and streams can handle. I will get the word out about any Flash Flood Warnings as soon as possible. Remember, NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! If you come to a roadway, turn around. There is no telling just how deep the water is. Just 6" of quick moving water can sweep a car away! It is especially dangerous at night, when it is even harder to see flood waters. Anytime you get rainfall of this magnitude in such a short (about 12-18 hours) time span, the runoff can produce dangerous conditions. Please stay safe tonight, and stay tuned to Grotonweather.com for the latest! Do not forget to visit the chat room by clicking the "Open Chat" icon to the right. The Chat will be open through the early evening. Furthermore, make sure you tune in for tomorrow's podcast as we talk about this event!

Note: One of the quickest ways to get updates from Grotonweather.com is on our facebook page! Become a fan now by clicking here!

Flooding Weather Video

I have decided to try my hand at video blogging for the upcoming flood potential. Let me know what you think!

Ticking Time Bomb

I like severe thunderstorms. They are fun to try to forecast and I find them exciting to experience. I of course don't like it when they do major damage or pose a significant threat to the safety of people. So, you could say there is a certain intangible threshold where a situation goes from enjoyable, to scary. I think we've already crossed that threshold today, and the nearest storms are just starting to pop in eastern Michigan.

Now, if you checked my site early this morning, you would have seen that I had taken it down and had prepared it to sit dormant for the next 10 days or so due to a variety of circumstances. However, things are evolving in such a way that I really feel like I need to be updating today.

Ok, so whats going on. If you haven't stepped outside lately, go do so. You will be greeted by a blast of heat and oppressive humidity when you do. Temperatures have already shot up into the 80s, and dewpoints are in the low 70s. This has already led to instability levels that are rare for our area, and high even by the standards of the Great Plains. So often, I talk about the role of cloud cover in severe weather outbreaks. Often times in our area, clouds in the morning and early afternoon inhibit destabilization, which is why we don't see extreme instability like we are seeing now very often. But it has been sunny and will continue to be sunny through the afternoon, which means things will only continue to destabilze to levels that far exceed anything we have seen this year, possibly even the past few years.

Instability alone is not enough to create a severe weather outbreak. You also need a trigger to get storms going. For us, that is a disturbance moving towards the east along a cold front. Right now, it is over southern Michigan...which is why the storms are forming there. As it moves east, this energy will provide the lift needed to allow storms to continue to form. As they interact with the unstable air, they will intensify. One more piece is needed though, and that is shear, or a change in wind speed or direction with height or horizontal distance. In this case, we are looking at speed shear from both the ground up into the atmosphere, and horizontally from south to north. This is because of an area of strong winds in the jet stream called a 'jet streak' that is to our north. This will provide the shear needed to organize the storms into segments, or even a squall line.

The way I see it right now, all of the ingredients are evolving to come together for a significant severe weather event for all of Central New York. The only question I really have is whether or not a massive squall line will form out of those storms in Michigan, or if there will be multiple, but smaller lines of storms. That is something that will only be determined as the afternoon goes on. Regardless, there is the potential for strong, destructive winds after roughly 4pm tonight. It wouldn't hurt to take some precautions now by putting away lawn furniture, securing loose objects, etc. The biggest threat from the storms is definatly wind and, if I was updating my site as normal, I would likely place it in the 'high' category. I believe that most, if not all counties in Central New York will experience at least some wind damage to trees.

Another danger tonight will be flash flooding....some areas, especially in Cortland County, got 3"+ of rain yesterday, with mudslides and road closures overnight in Cortland County. It won't take much heavy rain to create more problems. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! Flooding is the number 1 weather killer in the United States, and most of those fatalities occur in automobiles.

Watch for another update between 3 and 5pm, or sooner if a watch comes out. This is one forecast I hope I am not right on.

Ithaca Ice Jam Location

Noon Update: The Ice Jam has broken up and Fall Creek is back to its normal level. The Flood Warning has been canceled.

This is a map that the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service has for the flood gauge that is reporting the ice jam in Ithaca. If you have travel plans in that area, it would be best to find another route!

Flash Flooding, Severe thunderstorms: 5:15 Update

A very busy evening has unfolded. Tompkins County is currently under its second Severe Thunderstorm Warning. The first storm did some major damage in Freeville. PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE DAMAGE!

Also, we have a FLASH FLOOD WARNING in effect until 9PM. This is because storm after storm keeps moving over the area. If you come across a flooded roadway, DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH IT. CALL 911 AND REPORT IT.

I will continue to update as needed.

Major Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean became a Major Hurricane today (See post titled "TD-4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale" 8/13) as it achieved category 3 status. It has winds of 125mph, which means its already half way to category 4 status. Dean is expected to continue to strengthen. Right now, Dean is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico.

Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.


Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.

This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.

Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!

Severe threat: Friday, Sunday

A busy couple of days are coming up in the weather that may bring some severe thunderstorms to the area. Two separate systems will move through, one tomorrow and another Sunday, that could cause some problems around the region ranging from floods to hail to damaging winds.

Friday: Friday will be a lot like today was: hot and humid. The only differences will be it will be more humid and there will be a 'trigger' in the atmosphere to get some storms going. A weakening cold front that has been spawning severe weather across the central part of the country will work its way through here tomorrow afternoon. This will provide the spark, the heat and humidity the fuel. Thunderstorms tomorrow are not expected to be widespread. In fact, the majority of Central New York will probably stay dry. However, the storms that do pop up have the potential for some hail and gusty winds, not to mention torrential down pours. Winds in the atmosphere aloft will be weak tomorrow. This means that the storms that do form will be slow movers, if they move at all. As a result, flash flooding is a large concern for areas hit tomorrow. It is more than possible for someplace in the region to get 3-6" of rain tomorrow, while a few miles away gets nothing! Remember, flooding is the #1 weather killer in the nation. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! There is no telling how deep the water may be, and just a foot of fast moving water can take a car away!

Sunday: Remember those weak winds aloft? The lack of these winds will cause Friday's front to stall to our south. While Saturday will be nice, Sunday that front will lift back north as a warm front. A second, more powerful cold front will make its way into the area. For a few days now, the Storm Prediction Center has been watching our area for a severe weather outbreak Sunday. The amount of severe weather depends on the timing of the front, which is still uncertain. The main concern Sunday is damaging, straight-line winds associated with a powerful line of thunderstorms. If the timing is right, this could be a very damaging event, so you will want to stay tuned as the weekend progresses!