Respite Coming..But so is More Rain

 7:30 PM Update-

Unfortunately, the break in the rain I talked about 90 minutes ago below is filling in already. This means even more rain than I was expecting in the last post. That in turn means more flooding. Certainly not good news at all.

Wednesday- 6PM

For the past few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across our area. Major flooding is going on nearby, with some flooding also occurring within the Grotonweather area. Flash Flood Warnings are widespread across Central New York and Pennsylvania with numerous Flash Flood Emergencies and State of Emergencies in effect for neighboring counties. This will easily end up as the most destructive flood event in the region since the deadly June 2006 flood, which mostly missed the Grotonweather area, and may surpass that in some areas.

For all the bad, there is a little glimmer of good. The current band of heavy rain is quickly lifting to the north. By 7pm, we should be in another respite with just a few showers around. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE FLOOD THREAT WILL DIMINISH JUST BECAUSE IT IS NOT RAINING. Runoff will continue to inflate streams, which will continue to rise and create major flooding in areas. The flooding just will not be getting rapidly worse.

Until the next batch of rain, that is. Models are indicating yet another batch of heavy rain streaming northward from the Mid-Atlantic. This rain should arrive here well after dark and during the overnight hours, making it particularly dangerous. Flooding dangers at night are enhanced because it is hard to see flood waters and impossible to tell how deep they may be (not that you really can in the day time either).

This is what the HRRR (high-res rapid refresh) model predicts the radar to look like at 11pm tonight. It looks a lot like what the radar has looked like most of the day, meaning more heavy rain will be impacting our area tonight.

If you have to travel tonight: take it slow, DEFINITELY DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, and be aware that many roads south and east of our area and some roads in our area are closed. For example, every road in Chenango County has been closed. States of Emergency, in addition to Chenango County, are in effect for Broome, Otsego, and Bradfield, PA, to name a couple.

If you live near a creek, stream, river, or drainage area: Chances are you already have an excess amount of water rushing through many times the normal amounts. Additional rain could increase the amount of water attempting to flow through there. Be prepared to have to leave your home at any time, even in the middle of the night. Keep an eye on the water levels as much as you can. If you have a weather radio, keep it on tonight. There are also lots of website that will send updates to your phone...you may want to sign up.

This remains a very dangerous situation, even while the rain lets up for a while. Please, please be safe. Continue to check the Grotonweather website, facebook and twitter pages for updates. Please share this blog with others so that they can stay informed and safe as well.

Growing Flood Concern

 4:30PM Update-

Everything is progressing as I feared and a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for Tompkins and southern Cayuga Counties. The ENTIRE Grotonweather forecast area is now under FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. This is going to be a long night for our area.

Wednesday- 2:15PM

So far, the Grotonweather.com tri-county area has more or less been spared of major problems, at least that I am aware of. Our neighbors to the south and east in Tioga, Broome and Chenango counties have not been as fortunate. Massive and widespread flooding has prompted Flash Flood EMERGENCIES for all three counties, with a State of Emergency also in effect for Broome County. Many roads are under water and bridges are in danger of washing out. This is a very dangerous and deadly situation in these areas. Under no circumstances should you be traveling to those areas tonight.

Here is what is really worrying me though...our luck could soon run out. In the image below, you can see a band of very heavy rain moving north through Pennsylvania right towards our area, which is outlined in red. The heavy rain to our east will continue to move to the northeast.

This band of rain extends all the way down past Washington DC and seems to only be increasing in size and intensity. If the flooding that is occurring to our south and east is any indication what a couple more inches of rain will do, our area may be in trouble.

I urge everyone to be extra vigilant this afternoon, evening and overnight. This is one of the most dangerous situations in Grotonweather history, if not for our immediate area, then for our neighbors directly nearby. DO NOT drive or walk in flood waters. If the water is flowing, chances are that you will need to be rescued. If you are told to evacuate, do so. In fact, if you live near a stream that is already full or near...be prepared to leave on a moment's notice. The time to prepare is now.

Please share this post with your friends and family.

Was Irene Really a Bust?

In the days leading up to Irene, the media was alive with dire warnings about how bad Irene could be. In the days following the hurricane, the buzz is about how terrible of a job the predictions were. Really? Or, rather, I should say "You've got to be kidding me!?"

If you were expecting a monster storm surge to flood into New York City like in the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" (left), then of course you will be calling this storm a bust. That is Hollywood and nothing like that was ever predicted. The real storm surge predictions were 4-8 feet. In an area unaccustomed to hurricanes, such a storm surge could catch people unaware and prove to be deadly. It does not take much of a storm surge to be destructive. But never, ever was total destruction of New York City actually forecast. Many areas met this storm surge prediction and it was a good forecast.

The forecasts called for Irene to be a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm as she moved over top of New York City. At 9am EDT on Sunday, the center of Irene moved directly over Central Park- a remarkably accurate positional forecast which should be applauded, since one of the harder things to predict about a hurricane is its future position. When Irene moved over, the winds were at 65 mph- a strong tropical storm, as expected. Additionally, Central Park received nearly 7" of rain. That is nearly double the average amount of rain Central Park gets in August. What more do you people want before this is labeled significant?

If you are still not satisfied, we can chalk New York City up to being spared the worst and, if you really wish to believe so, over-hyped by the media (not the meteorologists). But the miss was pretty much only for there. It is extremely insensitive and just plain wrong to say Irene was a bust.

As of this writing, 2.5 million homes and businesses were still without power, 2-3 days after Irene came through. Roads throughout the Northeast are washed out or impassible due to fallen trees. Homes have been washed away. Entire towns have been flooded or cut off completely. Some towns have lost all their bridges. Some of these bridges that were washed out have been in service for over 150 years. Even part of the New York State Thruway remains closed. If this storm was such a bust...such a run-of-the-mill storm...nothing worse than a nor'easter...then why all the unprecedented destruction?

And that is just the material loss. At least 40 people have died from this "over-hyped bust" of a storm. Any loss of life is tragic. Those 40+ deaths translate to 40+ tragedies. Ask the family members of any of those who lost their lives if Irene was blown out of proportion. Perhaps they would have a different perspective.

The bottom line is this: even large weather systems like Irene have small subtitles that are not understood and certainly not possible to forecast. The geography of an area also plays a significant role in what exactly happens during a storm. Just because New York City was spared destruction does not mean other areas were. Look beyond your own backyard, your own town, even your own part of the state. It is easy to forget the sufferings of other and blast the forecasters for crying wolf. Just because the wolf didn't get you this time doesn't mean that next time you will be so lucky.

What does an "Alert Mode" mean?

Every once in a while, grotonweather.com will go into "Alert Mode" for various weather phenomenon. Flooding, heavy snow and severe thunderstorms are the three most common prompters of an Alert Mode. But what exactly do I mean by this, and how do I determine when to go into Alert Mode. This post will hopefully help you understand this better.

The Alert Mode is reserved for special instances of exceptionally dangerous weather that will impact the lives of those in and around the Grotonweather.com forecast area. The weather during an Alert Mode threatens lives and property. Precautions to stay safe need to be taken during these events. These are among the most significant weather events our area sees, and are accompanied by widespread watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The Alert Mode is meant as another way to highlight the potential dangers.

Obviously, not every significant weather event is worthy of an Alert Mode, and the decision to send Grotonweather.com into Alert Mode is taken very seriously. Only a few Alert Modes are issued each year. A combination of things has to be taken into account when going into Alert Mode:

First, the weather needs to be significant enough to create widespread dangerous conditions. Every severe thunderstorm is dangerous, and even a little freezing rain can cause deadly automobile accidents. However, most of the time, these dangerous weather events are more localized events that most Central New Yorkers are probably used to. For an event to garner an Alert Mode, it has to be above and beyond the "average" bad weather situation.

Secondly, there has to be a good deal of confidence this life threatening situation will occur. Often times, Alert Modes are prompted during an evolving situation. Such is often the case with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. These situations will also lead to shorter Alert Mode times, as the dangerous weather is often shorter lived. Other situations, including snow and some flood events, may have Alert Modes lasting days due to the prolonged nature of the event. Typically, these types of Alert Modes can be issued further in advance due to a greater certainty of the event occurring. Still, Alert Modes will almost never be issued more than 24 hours prior to the start of an event. Instead, Grotonweather.com will go into Standby to raise awareness of the potential for devastating weather.

When an Alert Mode is issued, pay extra attention to Grotonweather.com and other weather media sources for frequent updates on the dangerous weather. The weather during these situations may rapidly change. It is strongly recommended that you become a follower of Grotonweather.com on Facebook and/or Twitter for these situations, as updates are frequently issued there. (Click here for our Facebook and Twitter pages). Often times (but not always due to other time restraints), special Grotonweather features are available during these times, including Weather Chats, Videos, safety tips and special maps.

The bottom line is this: as a meteorologist, I personally feel a responsibility to keep you informed and safe during severe weather. The absolute worst thing I can imagine is having a weather related fatality under my watch. The Grotonweather.com Alert Mode is meant to help prevent that from ever becoming a reality. If you see an Alert Mode has been issued, stay aware and "keep checking back for updates!"

Major Flooding Reported

9:45PM UPDATE: The rain in Pennsylvania has still not turned east and is making me very nervous. The rain is as far north as I-80 in Central Pennsylvania. I unfortunately will not be able to update again until after after 12:30am. I will post a quick update at the time though.

The back edge of the rain shield is beginning to move through the Grotonweather tri-county area and will continue to do so over the next hour or so. Rainfall totals are over 3" over most of the area, and radar estimates max out at 4-5" over southern Cortland County. In all honesty though, it appears the radar is under estimating the precipitation, so I would not be surprised if places like Marathon got even more.

As I have been saying, if these rainfall amounts occurred in our area, the ground would not be able to handle it. Unfortunately, that prediction has come true. Here are a couple of the flooding reports I have heard so far, all from Cortland County:

• NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IN CORTLAND COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
• Route 11 between Reagen Road and Hoxie Gorge Road is CLOSED due to a mudslide
• Other mudslides have also been reported
• In Homer: The Haights Gulf Bridge is out.
• In McGraw: Roads IMPASSABLE throughout the village
• Red Cross Shelter for evacuees in the gymnasium at the County Office Building

I have not heard of any flood reports in Tompkins or Cayuga Counties, but that does not mean it is not occurring. I cannot stress enough, never drive through flooded roadways!! There are roads underwater in the area. DO NOT attempt to cross the flood waters. Doing so may put your life in jeopardy. If you are told to evacuate your home, do so!

As I stated at the start, the rain is ending. However, this does not mean the flood threat is ending! Runoff will continue to create flood problems into tomorrow. Area rivers are not expected to reach their peak heights until about this time Friday.

There may be some additional rain tonight. What is left of Tropical Storm Nicole is moving up through North Carolina and Virginia currently. The models have consistently kept this rain off to our east tonight. However, the fact that the models were too far east with today's storm, and the fact that the radar from that region looks very much like it did last night (namely a large area of rain seemingly heading right at us) has me a little nervous. I should stress, though, that we are not in the same sort of set up now, and, thankfully, I do see indications in the upper atmosphere that this rain will turn to our east, as the models indicate. If the models were wrong, which I do not think they are, and we were to get another couple inches of rain tonight, it would be disastrous. Again, I do not think this will be the case.

In summary...the rain may be ending, but the flooding will continue into tomorrow. Stay safe!!!!

Heavy Rain Update: 4PM

4:40PM UPDATE: FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR S.CORTLAND AND TOMPKINS COUNTIES THROUGH 7:15 PM.

Very heavy rain has been falling across the area and will continue to do so for the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. The regional radar loop is showing the rain tapering a bit to just showers, but not until far Southern Pennsylvania. Even then, there is still some heavy rain...just not as widespread. We very well may only be about half way through this event, and already rainfall totals are getting quite high. Take a look at some of these reports:

Game Farm Road Climate Station, Ithaca: 1.36" through 3PM
Freeville: 1.41" through 3:42 PM
Virgil: 1.54" through 3:42PM
Binghamton Airport: 1.36" through 3PM
Deposit, NY (Deleware County): 2.99" between 7AM-1:22PM

If we double these amounts, most places will be up around 3-4", as expected. There are no flood warnings in the Grotonweather.com forecast area, but most of the counties to our south, east and north are under flood warnings. Most of these flood warnings are for larger rivers in anticipation of this additional rain. No flash flood warnings are in effect yet.

There are actually some more intense areas of rain and wind within the main area of heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm warning was even issued for Broome County a little while ago! I changed the scaling on the radar program I use to make these areas stick out. The brighter the color, the heavier the rain. The heaviest rain seems to be concentrated over the Finger Lakes, with some of those heavier cells moving through Cayuga and Cortland Counties, as indicated by the dark reds and pinks. It is where these cells hit that the greatest chance for rainfall totals over 4" will occur.

As we go into the evening hours, I am anticipating starting to see some flash flooding problems as we start to approach the upper limits of what the ground and streams can handle. I will get the word out about any Flash Flood Warnings as soon as possible. Remember, NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! If you come to a roadway, turn around. There is no telling just how deep the water is. Just 6" of quick moving water can sweep a car away! It is especially dangerous at night, when it is even harder to see flood waters. Anytime you get rainfall of this magnitude in such a short (about 12-18 hours) time span, the runoff can produce dangerous conditions. Please stay safe tonight, and stay tuned to Grotonweather.com for the latest! Do not forget to visit the chat room by clicking the "Open Chat" icon to the right. The Chat will be open through the early evening. Furthermore, make sure you tune in for tomorrow's podcast as we talk about this event!

Note: One of the quickest ways to get updates from Grotonweather.com is on our facebook page! Become a fan now by clicking here!

Flooding Weather Video

I have decided to try my hand at video blogging for the upcoming flood potential. Let me know what you think!

Ticking Time Bomb

I like severe thunderstorms. They are fun to try to forecast and I find them exciting to experience. I of course don't like it when they do major damage or pose a significant threat to the safety of people. So, you could say there is a certain intangible threshold where a situation goes from enjoyable, to scary. I think we've already crossed that threshold today, and the nearest storms are just starting to pop in eastern Michigan.

Now, if you checked my site early this morning, you would have seen that I had taken it down and had prepared it to sit dormant for the next 10 days or so due to a variety of circumstances. However, things are evolving in such a way that I really feel like I need to be updating today.

Ok, so whats going on. If you haven't stepped outside lately, go do so. You will be greeted by a blast of heat and oppressive humidity when you do. Temperatures have already shot up into the 80s, and dewpoints are in the low 70s. This has already led to instability levels that are rare for our area, and high even by the standards of the Great Plains. So often, I talk about the role of cloud cover in severe weather outbreaks. Often times in our area, clouds in the morning and early afternoon inhibit destabilization, which is why we don't see extreme instability like we are seeing now very often. But it has been sunny and will continue to be sunny through the afternoon, which means things will only continue to destabilze to levels that far exceed anything we have seen this year, possibly even the past few years.

Instability alone is not enough to create a severe weather outbreak. You also need a trigger to get storms going. For us, that is a disturbance moving towards the east along a cold front. Right now, it is over southern Michigan...which is why the storms are forming there. As it moves east, this energy will provide the lift needed to allow storms to continue to form. As they interact with the unstable air, they will intensify. One more piece is needed though, and that is shear, or a change in wind speed or direction with height or horizontal distance. In this case, we are looking at speed shear from both the ground up into the atmosphere, and horizontally from south to north. This is because of an area of strong winds in the jet stream called a 'jet streak' that is to our north. This will provide the shear needed to organize the storms into segments, or even a squall line.

The way I see it right now, all of the ingredients are evolving to come together for a significant severe weather event for all of Central New York. The only question I really have is whether or not a massive squall line will form out of those storms in Michigan, or if there will be multiple, but smaller lines of storms. That is something that will only be determined as the afternoon goes on. Regardless, there is the potential for strong, destructive winds after roughly 4pm tonight. It wouldn't hurt to take some precautions now by putting away lawn furniture, securing loose objects, etc. The biggest threat from the storms is definatly wind and, if I was updating my site as normal, I would likely place it in the 'high' category. I believe that most, if not all counties in Central New York will experience at least some wind damage to trees.

Another danger tonight will be flash flooding....some areas, especially in Cortland County, got 3"+ of rain yesterday, with mudslides and road closures overnight in Cortland County. It won't take much heavy rain to create more problems. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! Flooding is the number 1 weather killer in the United States, and most of those fatalities occur in automobiles.

Watch for another update between 3 and 5pm, or sooner if a watch comes out. This is one forecast I hope I am not right on.

Flooding Concerns

Over the past few days, a couple of heavy rain events have effected our area. This has left rivers near or just starting to go over their banks and the ground saturated. With another heavy rain event on the way, this is a bit closer look at the potential impacts.

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center puts out river forecasts for the more major rivers. In the Cortland-Southern Cayuga-Tompkins tri-county region, there are three locations that get these forecasts: The Tioughnioga River in Cortland, and Cayuga Lake and Fall Creek in Ithaca. Each location has 4 levels of flooding: action stage, flood stage, moderate stage, and major stage. The action stage is the only one where flooding does not actuall occur. Currently, the two stations in Ithaca are below action stage and are not forecasted to rise to action stage. Our attention then turns to Cortland, where the Tioughnioga is already above flood stage, but is not quite forecasted to get to the moderate stage: (click to enlarge)


Here also is the projected rainfall for Cortland, as forecasted by the NWS: (click to enlarge)


While this rain will certainly swell the Tioughnioga, major flooding problems should be avoided. Now, there are plenty of other small streams and rivers in the area that are swollen. With my resources, I can't tell you which ones will have more flooding problems than others. If you live near a stream, just keep an eye on it, especially tomorrow morning towards the end of the rain. Most importantly though, if you are driving, and you come to a water covered roadway, do not try to drive through it. There is no telling how deep the water is.

Ithaca Ice Jam Location

Noon Update: The Ice Jam has broken up and Fall Creek is back to its normal level. The Flood Warning has been canceled.

This is a map that the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service has for the flood gauge that is reporting the ice jam in Ithaca. If you have travel plans in that area, it would be best to find another route!

Groundhog Day Speculation

The meteorological community is abuzz with excitement today. Numerous models are all in agreement with a major storm coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico Monday and then sitting somewhere over the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I thought that with all the hype around this storm already, people might be curious what I think.

First and for most, I will play the broken record and say what I normally do: It is WAY too far out. The models have been showing a storm and are all in pretty good agreement with that, so I do think a storm system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and move north. Beyond that point is where I feel it is too early to place much weight in the models with the track and strength of the storm.

Just to speculate though, here are a couple scenarios that could happen.

The Groundhog Day Blizzard: This scenario would take the low pressure system up the Eastern Seaboard to near New York City, where it would then sit for about 12 hours before heading north. For the first time now in a few years, the atmosphere is getting clogged at the perfect time for a blizzard. The models show an area of low pressure over Greenland, with a strong High over northeastern Canada. This will impede the progress of the coastal storm. This would be the perfect set up for probably the biggest snow storm Central New York has seen in a few years.

The Slop Storm: This scenario would have the storm coming up the Appalachians and either over northeast Pennsylvania and Eastern New York, or right over top of us in the Finger Lakes. This track would give us a mix of precipitation. Some warm air will be in place ahead of this storm, so our precipitation would likely start as either rain, or sleet and freezing rain. As the low tracked towards us, warmer air would come up, and we would go over to rain for a while. Then, as the low moved to our northeast, strong northwest winds would come in and change us back to snow for a moderate snowfall. If I had to guess, I would say this is the most likely scenario at this time. Will it happen? Only time will tell.

February Flooding: The final scenario has the low moving up the west side of the Appalachians. This would pound Ohio with a heavy snow, but for us in Central New York, it would mean a big warm up, probably at least into the 40s, with a soaking rain. Currently there is anywhere from 2 to as much as 10 inches of water equivalent sitting over top of us. That means if all the snow was to melt, that is how much rain it would equal. If even half of that snow pack melted rapidly, plus an inch or more of rain fell, there could be some major flooding problems.

Now, all of these situations focus on the different tracks of the storm. I am cautious right now about the strength of this storm as well, and do not think it will quite be as strong as the models are saying. That being said, the potential for a very memorable, if not historic storm is there. I will be watching this one closely over the weekend and early next week. Keep checking grotonweather.com for more updates!

Yet another Severe Thunderstorm Warning

We are currently under our THIRD severe thunderstorm warning of the day. A large cell has fired over Schuyler County and is moving towards the area. Hail and wind are threats with this storm, and it has taken trees down in Watkins Glen. However, I think the main threat may be flash flooding. The areas that were hardest hit earlier will once again get hit. As for a direct hit, it looks like West Groton stands a better chance than Groton, but, due to both Binghamton's and Buffalo's radars down right now, it is somewhat hard to tell. This storm will likely move into the Groton area between 10:30 and 11.

Flash Flooding, Severe thunderstorms: 5:15 Update

A very busy evening has unfolded. Tompkins County is currently under its second Severe Thunderstorm Warning. The first storm did some major damage in Freeville. PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE DAMAGE!

Also, we have a FLASH FLOOD WARNING in effect until 9PM. This is because storm after storm keeps moving over the area. If you come across a flooded roadway, DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH IT. CALL 911 AND REPORT IT.

I will continue to update as needed.

Major Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean became a Major Hurricane today (See post titled "TD-4 Forms, Saffir-Simpson Scale" 8/13) as it achieved category 3 status. It has winds of 125mph, which means its already half way to category 4 status. Dean is expected to continue to strengthen. Right now, Dean is in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico.

Here is the current radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, on which I pointed out the Eye of Dean, its movement, and Puerto Rico.


Dean is expected to head west before turning a bit more northwest. As you can see in the image below, this would take Dean over the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Southern Texas.

This is a particularly bad situation for a number of reasons. First off, the Gulf of Mexico is a breeding grounds for hurricanes. With water temperatures often in the upper 80's, storms can rapidly intensify. Katrina is a perfect example. Katrina was a weak hurricane as it moved over Florida. Within 24-36 hours, it blew up into a category 5 storm. Interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula will probably weaken Dean some to counteract this, but Dean could still explode, especially if it misses the Yucatan.

Texas also just got hit with torrential rains from Erin and many places have had a record breaking summer for rain anyways. A powerful hurricane would only intensify these problems. Stay tuned for more as the days go on!

The week ahead, plus a bit of history!

This blog post will have two parts. The first part will focus on this week's weather pattern across most of North America. It is an interesting set-up and I will explain what it means for us, especially come later next week into the weekend. Then, I will take you back to this weekend last year. If you thought this past week was rainy, wait until you hear the rain amounts we got last year!


This image tells some, but not all of the story. High pressure to our west will bring us seasonable temperatures for the first half of the week. Meanwhile, on the back side of the high, heat will be building big time, with triple digits all the way to the Canadian border! What this map doesn't show is an upper-level low that will be hanging around the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This will not only bring scattered thunderstorms, possibly severe with hail, but it will also clog up the flow of weather systems. Usually, systems travel west to east. However, this low will dig in an be very stubborn, forcing the high pressure, and the heat, north into Canada. This will allow the hot airmass to become very strong. Eventually, the low will lose out and be broken down and the heat will come spilling east. This will probably happen later this week, and when it does, we will bake!


July 21st and July 22nd, 2006: A frontal boundary was stalled across the region, with cool air to the north and hot, humid air to the south. We were stuck in the middle of these air masses, right in the battle zone. As low pressure systems moved along this boundary, thunderstorms broke out and "trained" across the region. "Training" is when repeated thunderstorms move over the same area, over and over again. This usually results in excessive rainfall, as was the case last year. On the 21st, thunderstorms rumbled through Groton for most of the pre-dawn hours. These storms dumped 1.14" of rain. Then, the next morning, the same thing happened, but with more numerous and stronger storms. As a result, the 24-hour rain record for Groton (according to my rain stats, which I have been keeping since 2004) was crushed by noon. Those storms dumped 3.31", with another 0.04" coming later in the day. As a result, our two-day rainfall was a whopping 4.49"! By comparison, our four-day rain total this week (Tuesday-Friday) was 1.38".

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Severe threat: Friday, Sunday

A busy couple of days are coming up in the weather that may bring some severe thunderstorms to the area. Two separate systems will move through, one tomorrow and another Sunday, that could cause some problems around the region ranging from floods to hail to damaging winds.

Friday: Friday will be a lot like today was: hot and humid. The only differences will be it will be more humid and there will be a 'trigger' in the atmosphere to get some storms going. A weakening cold front that has been spawning severe weather across the central part of the country will work its way through here tomorrow afternoon. This will provide the spark, the heat and humidity the fuel. Thunderstorms tomorrow are not expected to be widespread. In fact, the majority of Central New York will probably stay dry. However, the storms that do pop up have the potential for some hail and gusty winds, not to mention torrential down pours. Winds in the atmosphere aloft will be weak tomorrow. This means that the storms that do form will be slow movers, if they move at all. As a result, flash flooding is a large concern for areas hit tomorrow. It is more than possible for someplace in the region to get 3-6" of rain tomorrow, while a few miles away gets nothing! Remember, flooding is the #1 weather killer in the nation. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! There is no telling how deep the water may be, and just a foot of fast moving water can take a car away!

Sunday: Remember those weak winds aloft? The lack of these winds will cause Friday's front to stall to our south. While Saturday will be nice, Sunday that front will lift back north as a warm front. A second, more powerful cold front will make its way into the area. For a few days now, the Storm Prediction Center has been watching our area for a severe weather outbreak Sunday. The amount of severe weather depends on the timing of the front, which is still uncertain. The main concern Sunday is damaging, straight-line winds associated with a powerful line of thunderstorms. If the timing is right, this could be a very damaging event, so you will want to stay tuned as the weekend progresses!