OK...here is the more in depth forecast for tomorrow, when some major severe weather will come across the region. We have not seen a set-up like this in quite some time and we could be dealing with a bit of a tornado outbreak!
A very powerful storm system is plowing through the Midwest right now, and has already spawned over half a dozen tornadoes, with many more to come. Yesterday, the storm system didn't have as much severe weather because it was actually too strong! The high winds aloft shredded thunderstorms and major severe weather never occurred. However, today and tomorrow, that has changed. After lots of tornadoes, wind and hail tonight, this storm system will have its eyes on the Northeast, specifically Western and Central New York and Pennsylvania. Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert at Accuweather.com, says he is "very concerned" about our area for tomorrow on his blog. He seems particularly concerned with the tornado threat, which is something we don't see much. On his blog, he specifically mentions a number of cities that are under the largest threat, among which he includes Binghamton, Syracuse and Rochester. Here is the link to his blog on Accuweather.com if you care to read/watch what a real expert has to say as opposed to someone who has yet to graduate high-school.
Here is how tomorrow should shape up. The morning will be windy and sunny. After lows in the mid 60's, this sun and wind will only help boost our temperatures. Tomorrow could also end up being the hottest day so far this year, getting well into the 90's. Along with the heat, there will be plenty of humidity in place, so tomorrow will be a very nasty, muggy, hot day. In fact, heavy exercise outside probably isn't a good idea any time after noon. All this hot, moist air will be doing battle with cold air aloft, creating a lot of lift and instability. This will lead to the formation of towering thunderclouds. With strong winds aloft from the northwest and gusty winds from the south and southwest in the low and mid levels, everything is prime for these storms to rotate and produce tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are also possible. These storms will fire up in the afternoon and continue through the day. A more solidified line should move through later, with the main threat being wind damage with that. Overall, this has potential to be a tornado outbreak like we haven't seen in nearly a decade. Back in the late 90's, I remember a situation in Late May where there were over 30 tornadoes in New York. This will probably be the largest New York/Pennsylvania tornado outbreak since then.
Ok...so here is some quick review that will be helpful tomorrow. I would imagine we will have a tornado watch issued for us, probably by 1 or 2 PM. A tornado watch means conditions will be favorable for tornadoes, but doesn't mean there are any yet. Now, a means a tornado is either detected or spotted. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED, YOU MUST TAKE ACTION RIGHT AWAY! What do you do? Head to the lowest level of the building you are in. Go to an interior room that has no windows. If you are in school or some other such building, head to the hallways and sit against the wall. If you get caught outside and can't get inside, find a ditch and lay in it. In all of these situations, if the tornado hits you, COVER YOUR HEAD to protect it from injury. If you are in a car, get inside a building or find a ditch. DO NOT HIDE UNDER AN OVERPASS. Overpasses actually act as a wind tunnel and strengthen the winds.
Tomorrow during the day, I will post updates as much as I can to keep you ahead of the storm. Keep checking the grotonweather homepage and pay attention to the watches and warnings that are issued. And most of all, stay safe!
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Severe threat: Friday, Sunday
A busy couple of days are coming up in the weather that may bring some severe thunderstorms to the area. Two separate systems will move through, one tomorrow and another Sunday, that could cause some problems around the region ranging from floods to hail to damaging winds.
Friday: Friday will be a lot like today was: hot and humid. The only differences will be it will be more humid and there will be a 'trigger' in the atmosphere to get some storms going. A weakening cold front that has been spawning severe weather across the central part of the country will work its way through here tomorrow afternoon. This will provide the spark, the heat and humidity the fuel. Thunderstorms tomorrow are not expected to be widespread. In fact, the majority of Central New York will probably stay dry. However, the storms that do pop up have the potential for some hail and gusty winds, not to mention torrential down pours. Winds in the atmosphere aloft will be weak tomorrow. This means that the storms that do form will be slow movers, if they move at all. As a result, flash flooding is a large concern for areas hit tomorrow. It is more than possible for someplace in the region to get 3-6" of rain tomorrow, while a few miles away gets nothing! Remember, flooding is the #1 weather killer in the nation. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! There is no telling how deep the water may be, and just a foot of fast moving water can take a car away!
Sunday: Remember those weak winds aloft? The lack of these winds will cause Friday's front to stall to our south. While Saturday will be nice, Sunday that front will lift back north as a warm front. A second, more powerful cold front will make its way into the area. For a few days now, the Storm Prediction Center has been watching our area for a severe weather outbreak Sunday. The amount of severe weather depends on the timing of the front, which is still uncertain. The main concern Sunday is damaging, straight-line winds associated with a powerful line of thunderstorms. If the timing is right, this could be a very damaging event, so you will want to stay tuned as the weekend progresses!
Friday: Friday will be a lot like today was: hot and humid. The only differences will be it will be more humid and there will be a 'trigger' in the atmosphere to get some storms going. A weakening cold front that has been spawning severe weather across the central part of the country will work its way through here tomorrow afternoon. This will provide the spark, the heat and humidity the fuel. Thunderstorms tomorrow are not expected to be widespread. In fact, the majority of Central New York will probably stay dry. However, the storms that do pop up have the potential for some hail and gusty winds, not to mention torrential down pours. Winds in the atmosphere aloft will be weak tomorrow. This means that the storms that do form will be slow movers, if they move at all. As a result, flash flooding is a large concern for areas hit tomorrow. It is more than possible for someplace in the region to get 3-6" of rain tomorrow, while a few miles away gets nothing! Remember, flooding is the #1 weather killer in the nation. NEVER drive through a flooded roadway! There is no telling how deep the water may be, and just a foot of fast moving water can take a car away!
Sunday: Remember those weak winds aloft? The lack of these winds will cause Friday's front to stall to our south. While Saturday will be nice, Sunday that front will lift back north as a warm front. A second, more powerful cold front will make its way into the area. For a few days now, the Storm Prediction Center has been watching our area for a severe weather outbreak Sunday. The amount of severe weather depends on the timing of the front, which is still uncertain. The main concern Sunday is damaging, straight-line winds associated with a powerful line of thunderstorms. If the timing is right, this could be a very damaging event, so you will want to stay tuned as the weekend progresses!
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Seems like summer!
A busy blog post for sure, all of it having to do with things more typical of the summer than early May! From fires to heat, severe storms to hurricanes, its being talked about:
Fires:
If you have noticed, about a week or so ago I added a "Fire Threat" section to the thunderstorm forecast (for lack of a better place for it). I have been using this as a guide to how likely accidental brush fires are to occur based on a combination of recent rainfall, winds, humidity, and temperature. Lately, all things have been aligned for a "moderate" to "high" risk of fires. This threat became reality yesterday in Syracuse, when sparks from a welder's torch started a small brush fire. When the threat is high, extra caution must be used. One of the bigger risks is actually from people throwing cigarette butts without thinking. As is evident by yesterday's brush fire in Syracuse, when the threat is elevated, it doesn't take much to get a fire going!
Heat:
After hitting 86 yesterday, I thought about maybe putting "near 90" for today's forecast, but thought I might be jumping the gun a bit too much. Since 2003 (when I started recording weather data), it has hit 90 in May only twice. Both times were last year, on the 30th and 31st. However, that record has now been broken. Just after 3PM, I got to 90 degrees at my house, topping out at 90.3! You can see my weather software above (click for a larger image). The high temperature is displayed about half way down on the left panel!
Severe Storm Threat:
There is a bit of a threat for severe storms Thursday afternoon as a disturbance aloft moves through. While widespread severe weather isn't anticipated....nor did it occur today over the Midwest....I do think a few of tomorrow's storms may become severe, with hail and gusty winds being the threat. I would anticipate between 2 and 10 severe weather reports, mostly wind, stretching from Western New York, into Central New York and Northern Pennsylvania and over to about Albany. East of that, there may be some additional severe weather.
Subtropical Storm Andrea:
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season got an early start today...or did it? The season officially starts June 1st. Today, a low pressure system was classified "subtropical" and was given the name "Andrea." First off, a subtropical low is basically a hybrid: its got some tropical characteristics, and some non-tropical characteristics. (If you want more details, that would make a great "Ask Drew" question for that section of my website (which isn't built yet...)). In years past, these systems did not receive names. However, during the past few years, they have been given names. So, in a way, the Hurricane Season is off to a running start....but in ways, nothing has yet happened.
Fires:
If you have noticed, about a week or so ago I added a "Fire Threat" section to the thunderstorm forecast (for lack of a better place for it). I have been using this as a guide to how likely accidental brush fires are to occur based on a combination of recent rainfall, winds, humidity, and temperature. Lately, all things have been aligned for a "moderate" to "high" risk of fires. This threat became reality yesterday in Syracuse, when sparks from a welder's torch started a small brush fire. When the threat is high, extra caution must be used. One of the bigger risks is actually from people throwing cigarette butts without thinking. As is evident by yesterday's brush fire in Syracuse, when the threat is elevated, it doesn't take much to get a fire going!
Heat:
After hitting 86 yesterday, I thought about maybe putting "near 90" for today's forecast, but thought I might be jumping the gun a bit too much. Since 2003 (when I started recording weather data), it has hit 90 in May only twice. Both times were last year, on the 30th and 31st. However, that record has now been broken. Just after 3PM, I got to 90 degrees at my house, topping out at 90.3! You can see my weather software above (click for a larger image). The high temperature is displayed about half way down on the left panel!
Severe Storm Threat:
There is a bit of a threat for severe storms Thursday afternoon as a disturbance aloft moves through. While widespread severe weather isn't anticipated....nor did it occur today over the Midwest....I do think a few of tomorrow's storms may become severe, with hail and gusty winds being the threat. I would anticipate between 2 and 10 severe weather reports, mostly wind, stretching from Western New York, into Central New York and Northern Pennsylvania and over to about Albany. East of that, there may be some additional severe weather.
Subtropical Storm Andrea:
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season got an early start today...or did it? The season officially starts June 1st. Today, a low pressure system was classified "subtropical" and was given the name "Andrea." First off, a subtropical low is basically a hybrid: its got some tropical characteristics, and some non-tropical characteristics. (If you want more details, that would make a great "Ask Drew" question for that section of my website (which isn't built yet...)). In years past, these systems did not receive names. However, during the past few years, they have been given names. So, in a way, the Hurricane Season is off to a running start....but in ways, nothing has yet happened.
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