The main threat from this event is going to be damaging winds. Hail will also be possible, and my gut feeling is there will be a tornado somewhere in the watch box. The official probabilities that the SPC has put with the watch:
|Probability of 2 or more tornadoes || |
|Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes || |
|Probability of 10 or more severe wind events || |
|Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots || |
|Probability of 10 or more severe hail events || |
|Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches || |
|Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events || |
Since it is at the top of the hour, the current observations and indicies will not be in for another 20-40 minutes. Looking at the data from noon, though, it is obvious to me that the atmosphere is quickly destabilizing. Also, a pocket of strong winds in the upper atmosphere is beginning to move into Western New York, and will spread over the rest of the state, enhancing the thunderstorms. Storms are going to develop from west to east, and have already begun to fire up across Western New York, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These storms should organize into a squall line eventually, which is when the greatest threat for wind damage will be. The highest tornado and hail threat will be just prior to that, when the storms are more individual cells.
Be sure to keep checking back through the afternoon for the latest!