Friday, November 30, 2007

Friday's Snow Map

Here is my latest snowfall map. I probably won't be changing this much from here out unless something drastic happens. Groton is in the 5-8" range, though sort of on the expect probably 5 or 6 inches. Keep checking back tomorrow for updates!

Friday Afternoon Storm Thoughts

I actually do not have much new information on the upcoming storm. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for most of New York, except the counties under the jurisdiction of the NWS in Binghamton, which includes the entire region. I would bet they have not issued them yet because they still tend to think it will rain.

This will not may sleet for a while, but it will not rain. The models may say it will rain, but from the start, the models have not handled this set up well. For example, the models predicted temperatures in the teens and 20's across the Dakotas this morning....instead, they were 10-20 colder in the single digits! This error is caused by a couple of things that are carried over into what the models say for us this weekend. So while the NWS says snow, then rain, then snow again, I assure you it will not rain.

Other than that little rant, there isn't much new to say right now. I don't think the higher amounts on my map last night will occur, so I will be lowering them on my next map. However, the minimum amount for Groton should stay at 5"...I just think 10" is way too much to expect.

Look for another map later tonight between 5 and 7PM!

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Storm Snow Map: 5PM

I have compiled what I think is a pretty good snow map for this far out. Keep in mind this is subject to change, in the coming days...but I think we are close enough to the storm now that this seems to be a decent prediction. The red pointer is Groton, which, as you can see, is in the 5-10" range. I don't think I will have to lower that at all, but I feel I might have to boost that up some before the storm comes.

Weekend Snowstorm: Thursday Afternoon Update

The models are starting to make more sense with this storm and it looks as if everything is starting to shape up for at least a moderate snowfall across most of Central New York Sunday and Monday. Of course the major question is: Snow day Monday? It is still too early to tell and there is a lot of questions that remain to be answered, but I will admit there is at least a chance!

Now, onto the meteorology of this. A storm is forming south of California over the Pacific Ocean. This storm will move into the Souther Plains and then up into the Great Lakes. This is the first part of the storm. A cold front will have brought in very cold air on Saturday. This cold air will be trapped, meaning everything that falls should be some form of frozen precipitation (snow, sleet or freezing rain.) A good 3-6" of snow and sleet is looking like a good bet from this part of the storm.

The storm center will then reform off the East Coast. There is some uncertainty as to where, with the models pointing to a reformation further north than perhaps makes sense. They are, however, tending to come further south recently. This means more cold air will be brought in, making a change over to rain unlikely. This will also likely get rid of any sleet and freezing rain, making it all snow. How much more snow we pick up from this part of the storm is still up in the air depending on where the storm reforms, its track, and how fast it moves.

I am experimenting with a snow map, so look for that later this evening or tomorrow!

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Storm Potential Heads-Up

This storm is still 4 or 5 days out, but its time to at least start talking about the potential. A large storm system is forecast to develop in the Southern Planes and head northeast this weekend. With very cold air in place across the entire northern tier of the nation, someone is going to get a lot of snow out of this. There are two scenarios that seem possible with this weekend's storm:

The first has the storm plowing into the Great Lakes, bringing possible blizzard conditions to the Western Great Lakes, well away from us. This scenario would spare us heavy snow, though we would still likely get snow and maybe sleet and freezing rain.

The second scenario has the storm coming towards the Great Lakes like scenario 1, but then transferring energy to a second, coastal storm. This would place the heavy snow somewhere much closer by, if not right over Central New York Sunday and Monday.

My gut likes scenario 2...some of the more common models favor scenario 1. As a result, there is tons of uncertainty, so stay tuned as things iron out!