Saturday, March 31, 2007

April Snow

Yes, winter is coming back for a brief stay next week. Our spring like warmth will come to an end Wednesday as a powerful cold front moves through. It looks like snow showers are a good possibility Thursday right into the weekend. In fact, it is possible we will have a more Christmas like Easter than Christmas this past year (It was 40.5 with 0.47" of rain on Christmas, just for the record.) this so uncommon? My records are going on 5 years now, so I have 4 other Aprils to look at. Here is what I found in regards to April snow:

2003: We got 1" on the 1st and another 2" on the 7th, and 1.25" on the 23rd
2004: We got 4" on the 4th, and a dusting on the 28th
2005: We got 0.75" on the 4th, and a trace on the 24th and 25th
2006: We got a dusting on the 4th and 5th, with a trace on the 6th. No more snow in April, but in May last year, some of the hills in Cortland and Onondaga county got a couple inches of snow!

So....the first week in April seems to be historically snowy, making snow later this week not so odd.

However, I also looked at the temperatures following these snowy episodes: High 60's at least, with temperatures in 2003 getting all the way into the mid 80's! But even after that, as you see, one final cold shot. Then, on to summer!

Friday, March 16, 2007

The Latest Updates

Here are the latest updates on the winter storm. Some developments have occurred that has caused me to change my forecast a tiny bit. Here is what I am seeing:

These are regional radars from WSYR News Channel 9 that are 3 hours apart. The one on the top, image 1, is from just before 5PM, while the one on the bottom, image 2, is just before 8PM.

As you can see in image 1, the arrows point to the snow to our south, which is painted with solid, darker greys. This indicates a pretty solid area of heavy snow. Then look at 3 hours later. The darker, solid greys have broken up and there is a lot more white, indicating lighter snow. I think what is happening is the storm is a bit farther east than anticipated, which is breaking up the precipitation one the west side of the storm. As a result, I think our snow totals will be a bit less than I originally thought. By tomorrow morning, expect 5-9" with another 2-5" by Sunday as another low from the mid-west helps intensify our snow tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Storm Update!

Here is the latest on the snowstorm:

Groton High School has moved the Cottilion dance from tonight to tomorrow night from 8-11PM

The snow is almost here and once it starts, it will snow steadily for a long time. the heaviest is still excpeted to fall later this afternoon and evening, probably between 2 and 9PM. Storm totals also are unchanged, with a good 7-12" expected by the time the steady snow ends tomorrow late morning.

Here is a radar loop from from 8:45AM through 10AM: (click to animate)

Thursday, March 15, 2007

A bit premature

When making my blog entry earlier, I did have a moment or two when I thought to myself: "Am I jumping the gun on this too much? Is it too early?" It turns out, I was. Instead of 3-6" for most of CNY, 6-12" looks to be a good bet, with many of the totals in our area on the high end of that! It will arrive sooner than expected as well. Here are the details, as of now....

Totals: 6-12" over all of Central and Western New York. More specifically for this area, 8-12" with some localized pockets of 14". The Catskills will see over a foot.

Late Morning/Early afternoon. (10AM-1PM)
Heaviest: Afternoon and evening. (3PM-9PM)
End: Tomorrow late morning. (9AM-12PM)


Weekend Nor'Easter?

I have already been asked a few times about the potential for a big storm this weekend. Here is the scoop on this storm:

Low pressure will develop of the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow morning and move up the coast through the day Friday and into Saturday. Because the cold front came through already, we will see all snow form the storm. The good news (if you don't want snow) is that the heaviest of the snow will be well off to our east. However, this is going to be a large storm, so the amounts will creep up, even over here. As of now, it looks like 3-6" is a good bet over most of central New York, with 1-3" west or Rochester and 6-12" over the Catskills and eastern Adirondacks. The snow will start during the night Friday and continue into Saturday.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

"Is it over?"

Is it over? That is the comment I got on my guestbook earlier this week. The forecast of temperatures in the 40's and 50's for most of next week does give reasons to wonder. However, before you all get too excited for Spring, Winter is not quite done yet. Yes, it will be warm this coming week and the snow pack will decrease greatly, especially come Monday and Tuesday. However, a frontal system will bring winter back towards the end of the week. The clash of warm and cold air could make for some interesting weather, so it will be worth watching.

But, even beyond next weekend, it does look like winter will start to retreat. Just looking at the past few mid-late Marches, things usually quickly improve after the first week of March. Last year, by the end of March, we were having thunderstorms and temperatures as high as 78! On the flip side, the Blizzard of '93, which dumped 3-4 feet on the area in 1993, took place in mid-March!

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead tonight....Day Light Savings time begins again!

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Ice or Floods?

I am sticking to my guns, even though every local weather source I use says there will be a good amount of ice. Temperatures are warmer now than they were projected to be, and, with such a close call already, I think the extra few degrees should keep up out of the ice. Keep in mind, I am just using my gut feelings (although accuweather, which is more national, also says rain, not ice), so I have no idea if I will be right or wrong! As a result, I ask you to check back every so often....if it looks likes things will change, I will update! The most likely update times are as follows: 6, 8, 9 and 10PM. Here is the complete forecast:

Precipitation, which I think will be rain, will move in later tonight. Temperatures should still be above freezing, meaning whatever falls will not ice up. The temperature should rise a bit over night, keeping us in the rain until it tapers off tomorrow morning.

Don't be too surprised if there is a bit of thunder too! This is a very powerful storm system that is producing severe thunderstorms as far north as southern Michigan, which at this time does have a severe thunderstorm watch and warnings! I have never seen severe weather over such a large area (Michigan right down to the Gulf Coast, where there are some of the highest tornado probabilities I have seen), so far north this early in the year! It is quite amazing!

The rain will come down hard at times, especially if we get a thunderstorm. This, along with snow melt and a frozen ground, could cause flooding. If you are driving, and there is water covering the road, DO NOT drive through it! There is no way to tell how deep the water is and just a few inches can put your life in jeopardy!

So, as a quick recap: IF I am right, no ice, lots of rain, maybe some minor flooding and no day off tomorrow! Lets see how I do!