Saturday, July 21, 2007

The week ahead, plus a bit of history!

This blog post will have two parts. The first part will focus on this week's weather pattern across most of North America. It is an interesting set-up and I will explain what it means for us, especially come later next week into the weekend. Then, I will take you back to this weekend last year. If you thought this past week was rainy, wait until you hear the rain amounts we got last year!

This image tells some, but not all of the story. High pressure to our west will bring us seasonable temperatures for the first half of the week. Meanwhile, on the back side of the high, heat will be building big time, with triple digits all the way to the Canadian border! What this map doesn't show is an upper-level low that will be hanging around the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This will not only bring scattered thunderstorms, possibly severe with hail, but it will also clog up the flow of weather systems. Usually, systems travel west to east. However, this low will dig in an be very stubborn, forcing the high pressure, and the heat, north into Canada. This will allow the hot airmass to become very strong. Eventually, the low will lose out and be broken down and the heat will come spilling east. This will probably happen later this week, and when it does, we will bake!

July 21st and July 22nd, 2006: A frontal boundary was stalled across the region, with cool air to the north and hot, humid air to the south. We were stuck in the middle of these air masses, right in the battle zone. As low pressure systems moved along this boundary, thunderstorms broke out and "trained" across the region. "Training" is when repeated thunderstorms move over the same area, over and over again. This usually results in excessive rainfall, as was the case last year. On the 21st, thunderstorms rumbled through Groton for most of the pre-dawn hours. These storms dumped 1.14" of rain. Then, the next morning, the same thing happened, but with more numerous and stronger storms. As a result, the 24-hour rain record for Groton (according to my rain stats, which I have been keeping since 2004) was crushed by noon. Those storms dumped 3.31", with another 0.04" coming later in the day. As a result, our two-day rainfall was a whopping 4.49"! By comparison, our four-day rain total this week (Tuesday-Friday) was 1.38".

Have a nice weekend everyone!

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Severe threat not gone

Today's threat for severe storms isn't fact, it is just getting going. Thunderstorms are ongoing across western New York and eastern Canada, and the Storm Prediction Center is watching these storms closely and may issue a severe thunderstorm watch. Regardless of a watch being issued or not, these storms have the potential to pack a punch. The sun is also out across the region now, just adding fuel for these storms. Wind damage and hail are the main threats, though I am concerned with flash flooding. Most places have already picked up 0.5-1.5" of rain during the past 48 hours, and more heavy rain could cause some problems. Be safe: Never drive through a flooded roadway!

Storms will continue to rumble through the first part of the night before the cold front responsible for all this moves in with drier air. Stay tuned for any watches and a heads-up to any severe storms!

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Long Range Outlook: Late July Heat Wave

Besides a day here and there this month, we have escaped the real brutal heat that can roast our area in July. However, there are indications for quite a large and long heat wave coming towards the end of the month. There isn't much doubt that it will happen as opposed to when. Take a look:

As with almost all our hot periods, this heat will start well to our west, baking the Rockies and Planes. The heat can only expand so far north, and once it reaches that threshold, it heads east.

The article that accompanies the diagram to the left from says this "could become the heat wave of the summer for the Midwest and East."

Taking a look at their 15-day forecast, it looks like starting next week, we could be in for a lengthy period of near to above 90 degree heat. More on this as it evolves!

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Blog, Website Upgrades

As you can tell, I have done some upgrading to my blog. New colors, new features, even a co-author! One of my friends has agreed to help me out with this blog so that it will be updated more often. She will probably be posting about past events as opposed to giving forecasts. Feedback on these changes is appreciated...just leave a comment by clicking the "leave comment" link at the bottom of the post.

Though it has been done for over a month, I have not yet advertised the newest section of the Global Warming Center. Global warming seems to be a very hot topic and has many, many people worried about our future. Being obsessed with the weather, I have been and will continue to research this subject. I have put together a website with an accompanying blog to show the other side of the story, the side Al Gore doesn't want you to know about. Head to and to find out the truth about the Global Warming Hoax.

Monday, July 09, 2007

SUNY Oswego 3AM t-storm

Last night, I was spending the night at SUNY Oswego, the college I will be attending starting next month, for Freshman Orientation. We had a thunderstorm around 2 in the afternoon, but it was the one 13 hours later that has the campus talking today!

Thunderstorms moved into the Oswego area around 2:30AM and lasted for about an hour. During this time, lightning was literally flashing at least once every second! The winds were very strong as well, knocking down wires in the city (according to the National Weather Service.) Perhaps most exciting, however, is what one of my fellow meteorology freshmen saw. He went up to the 8th floor of the dorm and watched the storm come in off the lake. He reported this morning that he and others saw a waterspout out over Lake Ontario. Sadly, I was not with them.

This pattern of scattered severe thunderstorms will continue for the next few days. A very hot and humid air mass is centered towards our south. We are feeling the affects of this with temperatures in the 90's. However, we are on the edge of this air mass, meaning cooler air isn't too far away. This leads to the development of thunderstorms, often becoming severe. Keep an eye to the sky the next few days!