Tomorrow's Threat

Tornado watches now stretch from Wisconsin, east to Michigan and south to almost the Gulf of Mexico as Day 2 of the severe weather outbreak starts to get going. Yesterday, there were over 200 reports of severe weather, including 15 tornadoes, as shown below:

And here are the current tornado watches (shown as red boxes):


Now, for tomorrow. Accuweather's severe weather expert, Henry Margusity, keyed in on our area this morning in his blog when he said "That area could see a squall line with wind damage and perhaps tornadoes, especially from State College to Altoona to Williamsport to Syracuse to Watertown..." So basically what he is saying is the best chance for very damaging winds and tornadoes is Central New York and Pennsylvania.

A lot of the things I have seen indicate that morning cloud cover could prevent thigns from really getting out of hand. I actually emailed Henry Margusity, asking him how bad he thought it would get if there was little to no sun tomorrow morning. If he responds (he is very busy needless to say) I will let you know what he thinks.

Regardless, tomorrow needs to be watched very closely. I have no classes tomorrow (yay!) so you can be assured updates will be posted very often. The best chance for severe storms will likely be from mid afternoon on.

STAY TUNED!

Second Severe Thunderstorm Season

Often times the autumn season brings a renewed threat for severe thunderstorms across the nation as the seasons change from warm to cold. While widespread outbreaks are not as common as they are in the spring and early summer, they do happen from time to time and can be very, very destructive. Today is day 1 of 3 of one of these outbreaks. This severe weather outbreak will eventually spread all the way into our area on Friday. Here are the Storm Prediction Center maps for the threat the next 3 days:

THERE ARE TECH. PROBLEMS AT THE MOMENT THAT ARE PREVENTING ME FROM UPLOADING PICTURES...CHECK BACK SOON!
Today:

Tomorrow:

Friday:

Now, the thing with this outbreak will be the ability for the storms to continue well into and overnight. This is especially worrisome since the tornado threat will be high. The highest risk for tornadoes looks to be from roughly Arkansas up into southern Michigan. However, this does not mean other areas will not have to watch out. Strong, damaging winds, hail and more isolated tornadoes are possible pretty much everywhere else shown above.

Focusing on Friday since that is when we will get the worst, it is still a little early to get into specifics regarding where and when the worst will be. However, the entire New York and Pennsylvania area are under the gun for damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes.
Grotonweather.com could go into storm mode on Friday, which just goes to show the serious potential there is. Check back tomorrow for more updates.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential: Misleading Watches!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued two severe thunderstorm watches this afternoon. One is over eastern New York and comes as close to Tompkins County as neighboring Cortland and Tioga Counties. The second stretches along the NY/Pennsylvania boarder and south, reaching almost as far west Lake Erie.

The fact that Tompkins County is not in a watch by no means indicates a lack of severe storms threat. This is a very misleading situation. For starters, Groton is just 10 miles from Cortland County. The conditions in Cortland and the conditions in Groton and most of Tompkins county do not vary that greatly. If severe storms are possible there, they are possible here as well. But there must be a boundary, so one was drawn. Severe storms occur outside of watches all the time, so do not let your guard down!

Secondly, the Pennsylvania watch extends well to our west. Following the motion the storms are taking and extending that watch northeast, the direction the storms are moving, we are well within the severe possibilities. Once again, do not let your guard down and make sure to keep checking for updates!

Ok..now onto what is happening right now. Storms have fired across the region. They are scattered for now, with the strongest storms being near Auburn and just west of Binghamton. There are more showers that may form into storms to the southwest that will need watching. Further back, over Western Pennsylvania, a large complex of rain and thunderstorms has been developing all day. These storms will move into the area later this evening. Whether or not the y will be severe remains to be seen, but at least a period of moderate to heavy rain later tonight looks to be in the works.

Keep checking back for updates! I will update at the top and bottom (:00 and :30) of the hour if I am going to update that hour!