Friday, June 08, 2007

Severe Weather: noon update

Here is the latest on today's severe weather threat:

Severe thunderstorm watches are out from Ohio and Michigan through Arkansas. We need to focus on Ohio and Michigan since that is what will head our way later this afternoon. As of now, just a few isolated cells have started to fire up. These storms will continue to fire up both in this area, and further to the east.

The Storm Prediction Center still has us in "slight" as opposed to the "moderate" that the experts at Accuweather were expecting. Henry Margusity still believes they will upgrade to a moderate risk zone, which is 3rd on a 4 level risk system. The image to the right shows where he would issue the Moderate risk. As you can see, he is keying in on areas just to our west for the worst weather to occur. This is probably because the timing of these storms may be more towards dinner time and later as opposed to 2-4PM. Even if we don't get in the moderate risk, if one gets issued, conditions are still ripe for severe weather and this is still a serious set up. The tornado threat is still here, though it is higher further west. Overall, I am still saying 3-10 tornadoes in New York and Pennsylvania. The next outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is scheduled for sometime near or after 12:30 (which is in just 10 minutes, so we will see if they upgrade us.

No comments:

Post a Comment