Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Severe Weather Update: 2PM

Things have really fired up in the past few hours. As I stated earlier, multiple lines have formed, all to our west, meaning our chances for severe thunderstorms are pretty good. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9PM. There are multiple areas to watch, so here is the breakdown:

Closest to the Groton area now are a few individual cells. There is one just south of Auburn, and another west of Trumansburg. They are moving towards the east northeast and probably contain some hail. The storm west of Trumansburg will be a close call for Groton. According to my storm tracking software, this storm has hail up to 2" and would probably reach here between 3 and 4 PM. Anytime you get individual cells out ahead of the line on a day like today, it needs to be watched for rotation. I will update on this storm again towards 3PM. Here is the screenshot of my storm tracking software. Groton is marked by the diamond that says "Grotonweather" towards the right. Click the image for a larger view.

Not far behind these cells is the first line of thunderstorms. Wind damage reports are already wide spread through Western New York. This line will move through not long after the cells clear the area, probably between 3:30 and 4:30. The main threat with these storms will be wind damage.

Further to the southwest, over Pennsylvania, there are more scattered cells. These need to be watched in case they form another line. More on those storms as they develop.

Lastly, there is another line of storms over eastern Ohio and Ontario. This line is along the cold front and probably won't move through until after sunset. Because it will have lost the day time heating, its severe threat will have greatly diminished.

Keep checking back as the storms continue to approach and develop!

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