Tuesday, February 26, 2008

5PM Storm Update

The storm center is tracking across southern Pennsylvania right now and slowly turning northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is continuing over all of Central New York. Below is the latest radar image from weathertap, and there are a few things noteworthy about it.
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1: The darkest blues can be seen over Southeast New York. This is a result of the storm tracking even farther south than the models were indicating yesterday. As the storm turns northeast and rides up the coast, the heaviest snows will likely stay to our east as well. Does this mean we won't get anything? By no means because....

2a. Even though the storm center is now in eastern Pennsylvania, there is a large amount of snow on the back side of this storm. The snow over Ohio is mostly a result of moisture that has wrapped around the back side while

2b. The snow further west is tapping into this moisture and added moisture from the Great Lakes. This tells me that there is plenty of moisture well behind the storm and that the lakes are contributing to the snow.

3. The storm itself is starting to take its turn to the north. While the snow has been moving west to east most of the day, its axis is shifting to a more southwest to northeast orientation. Overnight, it will become increasingly north-south, and the little pockets of lighter snow should fill in a bit.

What does this all mean? There is still plenty of storm to go. As the low moves to our east, the snow shield will still be over us. The wrap around moisture will ensure that even when the storm center is well to the northeast, at least light snow should continue for the area through tomorrow. Winds are gradually shifting towards the north, and this will allow Lake Ontario to enhance the snow fall, especially tomorrow. A little over 3" has fallen so far at my house, and while I am still confident of the lower end of my predictions last night, I think it will be hard for anyone to get up to a foot, except down towards the Catskills. As a result, totals look just a tad scaled back now, with a general 7-11" expected by tomorrow at noon.

Chances still look good for a snow day, especially since the winds will continue to pick up overnight and into tomorrow, keeping the snow blowing around right into Thursday.

1 comment:

  1. Need an update!! Mr. LeVick :)