Wednesday, February 28, 2007

A little bit of everything!

Edit: 3-1 7AM:
Two lows will merge over the Kansas/Missouri area tomorrow morning and give birth to a very large, powerful storm system that could bring a wide range of weather to the area. Here is the best forecast I can make at this time....the complexity of this storm makes it very difficult...especially since I have no models of my own to use...just what others tell me and my gut feeling!

The precipitation should start out as snow this morning, then again in the afternoon. The snow will probably come down hard sometime between 3 and 6, maybe as late as 7. Then, warmer air will infiltrate and change the precipitation. There is a very fine line between where snow, freezing rain and rain will fall, so this is really any body's guess. My feeling is that we will start warm and warm quickly tomorrow evening, meaning the snow may start mixing with some freezing rain as early as dinner time. From there, I think it will quickly change to all rain by 10 or 11PM at the latest. It will stay as rain overnight and into the day tomorrow, before it tapers off to showers late-morning. There could even be some thunder in with the rain!

Because I am taking the mostly rain path with this storm, that means flooding will be a concern. The ground is frozen, the rain will be heavy (maybe as much as an inch!), and at least some moderate snow melt should occur. This could cause problems at least on some of the smaller streams.

Days off from school? I do not think we will get a day off from school. The wintry precipitation will be over way too soon, and, unless we get 3" of rain, I don't foresee flooding problems large enough to close school. However, that doesn't mean its not possible!

Here is my outline to the storm as I see it now. Expect another blog entry tomorrow afternoon if things change!

Mostly afternoon into the evening (through 6PM)
Amounts: 1-3"

Freezing Rain/Sleet:
Evening (5-9 PM)
Amounts: Enough to make it careful!

Times: Evening-Friday (8PM Thursday-2PM Friday)
Amounts: 0.5-1"
Flooding Chance: Slight to moderate
Thunderstorms: Minimal, but possible

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