Saturday, December 15, 2007

So it begins!

The snow has started to fall here ever so lightly, but it is just the start of things to come. Despite most other people still insisting on sleet mixing in, I am sticking to my guns and saying this will not happen. So far, it looks like conditions are starting to favor the all snow forecast.

Temperatures at the surface are in the 30's all the way into North Carolina. Another interesting thing going on in the Carolinas is the winds and pressures are starting to indicate the development of the coastal storm. This is happening way faster than the models projected. As a result, the low to the west of the Appalachian Mountains will not be as strong or make it as far north as the models show. This will in turn mean the warm air won't get in here...not that it would have an easy time doing so since the cold air is so entrenched anyways.

Another thing about the models and cold air is showing up over Ohio. The models had temperatures there in the upper 30's and low 40's...but instead, temperatures have stuck near or just above freezing. So the models are too warm as well, which also translates to a lower chance of sleet here.

All in all the models have not been handling this well so I have pretty much thrown out the recent runs and my thinking from the previous days has not changed. The only thing I would change on my snowmap from last night would be to extend the 12-18" line to include more of Western New York and maybe up the 18" to 20" or even 24". Other than that, everything looks good locally.

Now, as you wake up tomorrow, there will likely already be at least 3-6" of new snow. As the day goes on, the snow will become very heavy and the winds will pick up as well. This will make travel very, very dangerous, so if you don't have to go out tomorrow, stay home. This will continue into tomorrow night before tapering off sometime after midnight.

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